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Winter Storm!? Jan 12-13th, 2019


cyclone77
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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Snowing heavily still here at Fortville but looks like we will enter dry slot for awhile this afternoon before more returns from EVV nw to Carbondale come ne.  Those returns are currently rain, but hopefully they will remain as snow when they get this far ne.

We still have the upper level system later this evening.  It's a long shot but some places could see double digits if that dry slot keeps filling in.  

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

It's a big win for us after facing a possible DAB event not too long ago lol.  I love these long-duration events.  

The better northward surge of the moisture helped a lot of people on the forums.  There are lot of members in the Lincoln-Omaha-Des Moines-Cedar Rapids-QC-Chicago corridor.  While we won't see any heavy snow, I'm certainly satisfied with the daytime light-to-moderate 4-incher.

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I-72 nice hit

 

  
1140 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JACKSONVILLE            39.73N 90.23W   
01/12/2019  M14.0 INCH       MORGAN             IL   MESONET           
  
            MEASURED 14.0 INCHES OF SNOW ON VANDALIA STREET IN   
            JACKSONVILLE. 1.5 ADDITIONAL SNOW BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1140   
            AM.  
  

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Just now, cyclone77 said:

It's a big win for us after facing a possible DAB event not too long ago lol.  I love these long-duration events.  

It's remarkable how far north the northern edge of the snow made it today compared to what guidance had been suggesting. Waterloo is all the way up to 1.5" too. 

Here in Ames we have roughly 1.75-2.5" depending on where you want to measure. Some main roads are still in rough shape but not bad otherwise. Looks like DSM is sitting around 4" or so. If we can get to 3" I'll be pleased. Much happier than I was checking RadarScope after several drinks last night :drunk:

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7 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Duh! I forgot all about that one since it was such a narrow path of snow and we got whiffed on it. I'm thinking the official total was somewhere around 10 and half inches

 

We normally do a little better than Indy, and we're only a mile west! Not sure why but I'll take it! 

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1 hour ago, AppsRunner said:

It's remarkable how far north the northern edge of the snow made it today compared to what guidance had been suggesting.

Some guidance just did not do well. GGEM/FV3/ECMWF did the best, no doubt. The OP GFS needs to be replaced by the FV3 ASAP, because it was horrible. The NAM/HRRR/RAP were beyond horrible .

The SLP ended up further north than most guidance expected even just 1 day ago, as well as some guidance overestimating the power of the dry air advecting in...usually it's the opposite. This time yesterday the HRRR had 0 snow for much of the Chicago metro, where 2-5" is likely now and was shown by most other guidance.

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14 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

It's remarkable how far north the northern edge of the snow made it today compared to what guidance had been suggesting. Waterloo is all the way up to 1.5" too. 

Here in Ames we have roughly 1.75-2.5" depending on where you want to measure. Some main roads are still in rough shape but not bad otherwise. Looks like DSM is sitting around 4" or so. If we can get to 3" I'll be pleased. Much happier than I was checking RadarScope after several drinks last night :drunk:

Snowing pretty good here as well I’m your old neighborhood up by the Franklin Park Mall. Can only imagine what the snow rates towards BG are 

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Some guidance just did not do well. GGEM/FV3/ECMWF did the best, no doubt. The OP GFS needs to be replaced by the FV3 ASAP, because it was horrible. The NAM/HRRR/RAP were beyond horrible .

The SLP ended up further north than most guidance expected even just 1 day ago, as well as some guidance overestimating the power of the dry air...usually it's the opposite. This time yesterday the HRRR had 0 snow for much of the Chicago metro, where 2-5" is likely now and was shown by most other guidance.

The american CAMs all seemed to be pretty awful this time around. The RGEM and the globals you mentioned were all decent, though I don't think any model came close to showing the extent of the northern push until an hour before it got there. 

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

Nothing about this is really over-performer really.

Quality guidance had 2-5" for the metro, which is on track to occur.

I would say the system generally overperformed expectations in our neck of the woods. The “quality” guidance didn’t really show much for the city and north until yesterday. Cook county didn’t even have an advisory posted.

Could have easily gone the other way. 

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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I would say the system generally overperformed expectations in our neck of the woods. The “quality” guidance didn’t really show much for the city and north until yesterday. Cook county didn’t even have an advisory posted.

Could have easily gone the other way. 

Not an over-performance at all. FV3/GGEM/ECMWF all showed 2-5" across the metro for the past 1 day+, so that's not really correct.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not an over-performance at all. FV3/GGEM/ECMWF all showed 2-5" across the metro for the past 1 day+, so that's not really correct.

I’m sorry I disagree.

Even just looking back at old ECMWF runs now, it didn’t really start showing the higher amounts until 12z yesterday, maybe you could argue 00z. Sure the GGEM was amped, but that’s a typical bias of that model so I was discounting some of those runs. The FV3 admittedly did well.

There was enough short term guidance and the good ol’ OP GFS suggesting this would not happen. I don’t think many of us were expecting the push this far north with respectable totals. Therefore for me personally, this is an overperformer.

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Just now, mimillman said:

I’m sorry I disagree.

Even just looking back at old ECMWF runs now, it didn’t really start showing the higher amounts until 12z yesterday, maybe you could argue 00z. Sure the GGEM was amped, but that’s a typical bias of that model so I was discounting some of those runs. The FV3 admittedly did well.

There was enough short term guidance and the good ol’ OP GFS suggesting this would not happen. I don’t think many of us were expecting the push this far north with respectable totals. Therefore for me personally, this is an overperformer.

If you were even following the OP GFS that tells me all I need to know.

These totals were always in the envelop of possibility. The cut off was the main issue point, and ended up in the southern tier of Wisconsin counties, which was always a possibility as well.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

If you were even following the OP GFS that tells me all I need to know.

These totals were always in the envelop of possibility. The cut off was the main issue point, and ended up in the southern tier of Wisconsin counties, which was always a possibility as well.

Lol it’s the first global to run of the suite man, gotta get my fix

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I’m sorry I disagree.
Even just looking back at old ECMWF runs now, it didn’t really start showing the higher amounts until 12z yesterday, maybe you could argue 00z. Sure the GGEM was amped, but that’s a typical bias of that model so I was discounting some of those runs. The FV3 admittedly did well.
There was enough short term guidance and the good ol’ OP GFS suggesting this would not happen. I don’t think many of us were expecting the push this far north with respectable totals. Therefore for me personally, this is an overperformer.
Euro had a run a few days ago that had the higher totals farther north. In general, it did a better job getting halfway decent accums into the metro even with the run to run variance and closer with the northward extent to what is verifying. Can say the same for the FV3 and GGEM and RGEM at longer leads as has been established. The op GFS did a horrific job through and through.

The NAM was as it turns out too affected by dry air, it wasn't bad with mass features. I've noticed that the NAM is very binary when affected by dry air. Even if soundings show what look like snow all the way down to a fairly shallow dry layer, it severely cuts or even removes snow accums. In the case of the north end cutoff, what it showed wasn't unrealistic but just too far south based off mass features like h5 and slp track etc.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Snow really seems to be very slowly lightening up but it’s still accumulating. We have about 5 inches or just shy of that now. I’m grateful to the snow gods and satisfied with this one. The models were too conservative/too far south with the northern cutoff here too and even Ames got a few inches and snow made it up even further north than that. Here’s a photo from 2 hours ago. Little more out there now 

45F851A2-DBCC-47DC-804B-7969CEC54C7F.jpeg

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