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Winter Storm!? Jan 12-13th, 2019


cyclone77
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20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

You worry too much. Enjoy the 6"+

Well after being burned many many times here it is hard not to man. Lol. But thanks for the positive reinforcement. The expanse of this system is pretty incredible. Been a while since we seen a snow swath like this. Hope you guys up north fair out better than forecasted. RAP gives you hope!

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Latest HRRRRR continues the trend for wetter/further north along the I-80 corridor.  Now the QC is solidly in the 0.5"+ area on the HRRR, with over 0.6" on the RAP.  Looking like the QC has a shot at more of a 5-6" type event based on these trends.  Think I'll bump my call for here from 1-2" to 3-4", and the QC from 2-3" up to 5-6".  Still not 100% sure, but it's looking like the nasty gradient I was concerned with may set up a bit north of here.  

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Latest HRRRRR continues the trend for wetter/further north along the I-80 corridor.  Now the QC is solidly in the 0.5"+ area on the HRRR, with over 0.6" on the RAP.  Looking like the QC has a shot at more of a 5-6" type event based on these trends.  Think I'll bump my call for here from 1-2" to 3-4", and the QC from 2-3" up to 5-6".  Still not 100% sure, but it's looking like the nasty gradient I was concerned with may set up a bit north of here.  

pwtr_sf.gif?1547271999837

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14 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Latest HRRRRR continues the trend for wetter/further north along the I-80 corridor.  Now the QC is solidly in the 0.5"+ area on the HRRR, with over 0.6" on the RAP.  Looking like the QC has a shot at more of a 5-6" type event based on these trends.  Think I'll bump my call for here from 1-2" to 3-4", and the QC from 2-3" up to 5-6".  Still not 100% sure, but it's looking like the nasty gradient I was concerned with may set up a bit north of here.  

The trend this evening is quite positive.  The dry air feed is backing off compared to some earlier model runs, especially the HRRR.  The dry dip into east-central IA is being replaced with a decent moisture surge.  I was expecting 2", but now it should be 3", perhaps 4" with a bit of luck.

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6 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

NWS trending down in the zones for STL..WTF is gong on? it changes sometimes in 30 minutes

 

306pm


OTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 14 TO 16 INCHES

 

451pm

TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 12 TO 13 INCHES
 

804pm 


TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 10 TO 13 INCHES

 

836pm TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 9 TO 11 INCHES

WTF why do they keep changing all the time almost every hour

 

1021pm

TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 8 TO 10 INCHES

 

1106pm

TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 11 TO 14 INCHES

 

1151pm

TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 13 TO 16 INCHES

 

1235am

TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 13 TO 16 INCHES

 

1251am

TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 12 TO 15 INCHES

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LOT

 

SHORT TERM  
  
252 AM CST  
  
THROUGH TONIGHT...  
  
A VERY SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE RICH STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN  
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.  
THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES WAS TO ADD ANOTHER COUNTY  
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-88 CORRIDOR AND TO ALSO EXTEND THE   
ADVISORY THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT.   

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11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like we're closing in on an inch here.  HRRR/RAP show over 1/2" of precip, so we look to make a run at 6".  Always nice to see things trend in the good direction in the final 12hrs instead of the opposite lol.  

You debbed your way to 6". Congrats! ;) :D

Radar returns crawling north around here...snow literally knocking on the back door, lol...but we are getting some flakes with whatever moves overhead. Still like somewhere in the 3-5" range for IKK... 

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3 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

LOT

 

SHORT TERM  
  
252 AM CST  
  
THROUGH TONIGHT...  
  
A VERY SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE RICH STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN  
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.  
THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES WAS TO ADD ANOTHER COUNTY  
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-88 CORRIDOR AND TO ALSO EXTEND THE   
ADVISORY THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT.   

actually quite the bump in these parts along the I-88 corridor. Lot added us to the Advisory and bumped are totals from 1-2 to 3-5 inches. Fairly substantial change. Dry air still a concern. 

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actually quite the bump in these parts along the I-88 corridor. Lot added us to the Advisory and bumped are totals from 1-2 to 3-5 inches. Fairly substantial change. Dry air still a concern. 

Dry air still winning in Kankakee County. No flakes yet despite the radar returns


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