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Winter Storm!? Jan 12-13th, 2019


cyclone77
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44 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

06z HRRR stalls the northern fringe pretty close to here and Cedar Rapids, and drops <0.1" of precip at both locations.  Going to be a nail biter here lol.  It's an outlier, as most other models show 0.2-0.3" for both areas.  Gonna keep riding my 1-2" call for here, and go with 2-3" for the QC.

Is HRRR trustworthy that far out yet?

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41 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

12z NAM improved for quite a few. Brought higher totals northward for central IL, the QC,...and farther east for the IN and OH crews. Jackpot is just west/northwest of STL.

Yea,  looks more like the FV-3. Brings heavier totals 3-5"+ totals right to I-80 corridor.

nam.JPG

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29 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

This is going to be a long awaited crush job for you guys, 6-8” looks like a lock.

It hasn’t been often in the past few years that I am jealous of my parents in Decatur regarding a winter storm. 

Absolutely and thanks man! Getting stoked. Updated graphic from our local met. Really considering driving to Mattoon/Charleston for the night. Hopefully another tick north to really put us into the thick of things. Either way, minimal sleep tonight. 

82FF34D1-B98A-4B58-9BE3-FF16503B3A2B.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, ams30721us said:

Yea,  looks more like the FV-3. Brings heavier totals 3-5"+ totals right to I-80 corridor.

nam.JPG

Painfully close for here. Alas, I’ll take 3 and change. :D

Not a perfect match, but snowfall distribution with this one looks similar to the March 24-25, 2013 storm. SPI probably isn’t getting 18” and LAF close to a foot, but fairly similar.

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It's a tough call for Northern Illinois, and the the LOT/DVN CWA's right now.

Typically in these situations with dry air intrusion from the NE, a sharp gradient is the way to go...and happens 9/10 times. However, it's hard to overlook most guidance, which has a couple inches further north and a loose gradient...compared to say the NAM that is drier further north and has a sharp gradient.

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I think 3-4" still looks good here.  Being so far north of the storm track, it's tempting to think ratios would be very good, but an inspection of soundings shows that the better lift really doesn't line up very well with the DGZ at least around here.  I suspect flake size may not be that good most of the time, though could improve for brief periods.

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Euro just came in and added significantly more QPF on the northern side of the system. Would probably give CR 4-5" as ratios would probably be ever so slightly higher than 10:1. Though there isn't a lot of forcing out here on soundings so flake size is probably gonna suck like Hoosier was alluding to.

d9c6ea108884e5530b44489a6a0be3f3.png

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As previous post just mentioned, pretty sizable bump north from Euro vs 00z run. I had been liking roughly I-90 corridor in northern IL for sharp cutoff, but not sure now. Aside from the NAMs, GFS, and high res wrfs, most of the 12z guidance today held or bumped north. Feeling better about not being north of the cutoff here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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