AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 FWIW... 00z ARW/NMM are both significantly south of their 12z runs. Almost completely dry for I-80 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 This is going to be a nail biter to the end. Lol. Up and down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: FWIW... 00z ARW/NMM are both significantly south of their 12z runs. Almost completely dry for I-80 north Not sure how reliable those models are with winter storms. Don't hear them being used much for winter weather, at least I haven't. I still feel up till I80 will see a respectable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: If this storm would have came in about 12hrs later the Chiefs game Sunday afternoon would have been one to remember. The snow will have just left the area by the time the game starts around 3pm IIRC. Take it to the banter thread. Don't clog this thread up unless you have something substantial to add and can back it up.... Sorry, I'm a bit intoxicated at the thought of mud finally being replaced with virgin white snow, caused a DT outbreak lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Not sure how reliable those models are with winter storms. Don't hear them being used much for winter weather, at least I haven't. I still feel up till I80 will see a respectable snow Don't quote me but think they're part of the SREF nest which just took me down to 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Take it to the banter thread. Don't clog this thread up unless you have something substantial to add and can back it up.... Sorry, I'm a bit intoxicated at the thought of mud finally being replaced with virgin white snow, caused a DT outbreak lol. Don't think that was really banter man. Lol. Just think he was saying that would have been something cool to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Don't think that was really banter man. Lol. Just think he was saying that would have been something cool to see Tongue in cheek 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Don't quote me but think they're part of the SREF nest which just took me down to 1 inch. That makes sense. I stick to my staples. Nam, goofus, euro and then hrrr/rap once it is here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Anyone have kuchera maps for 0z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 28 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Take it to the banter thread. Don't clog this thread up unless you have something substantial to add and can back it up.... Sorry, I'm a bit intoxicated at the thought of mud finally being replaced with virgin white snow, caused a DT outbreak lol. New Euro brings warning criteria snows up to Peoria and over towards the LAF area. Also a nice 6-8" snow for the Indy area. Close to 0.5" for Columbus OH as well, and as some have pointed out sometimes models weaken these systems a bit too quickly so a warning criteria snow for them is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Anyone have kuchera maps for 0z euro? Looks like about 0.67" of precip for Peoria. So about 7" with a hair over 10:1 LSRs which seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like about 0.67" of precip for Peoria. So about 7" with a hair over 10:1 LSRs which seems reasonable. What about US 30 corridor? Less than 12z(which had 0.25QPF along 30 in E IA)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, hlcater said: What about US 30 corridor? Less than 12z(which had 0.25QPF along 30 in E IA)? Looks like a very slight tick north at my first glance. Still no QPF loaded on my end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6-8" along I-74 south of that 8-12" in IL with 12-16" near STL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, hlcater said: Looks like a very slight tick north at my first glance. Still no QPF loaded on my end. Looks like around 0.25" at CR. Pretty steep gradient in the area though, with about 0.11" in far north Linn Co, and 0.33" in far south Linn Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I don't understand why weathermodels doesn't have kuchera maps. So dumb. I need to switch to weatherbell. Thanks cyclone for the info. Curious to see what ILX does. Imo warnings could be issued up to I74 but they likely will go wwa instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like around 0.25" at CR. Pretty steep gradient in the area though, with about 0.11" in far north Linn Co, and 0.33" in far south Linn Co. But of course. Linn County always seems to be gradient city. Weather.us loaded and shows a modest tick north out in IA. CR gets ~0.30 on their map at CID. The trend with the Euro has been to get the higher QPF farther into IA, but also sharpen the gradient at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: What is its track record like with past winter storms? 1 hour ago, CoalCityWxMan said: It sniffed out higher totals in that November storm before other models started catching on, but placement was off. 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: It bombed with the Nov 25th storm. Was adamant about heavy snows much further northwest than all other guidance until at the last minute. Other than that I'm not sure how well it's done. Yeah it was straight garbage until snow was falling. Was consistent in being 75-100 miles NW with the snowfall axis. Bit on the far NW solution and went down with that ship. It ended up being fairly close with respect to totals within the heaviest axis, but was laughably bad with placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Indy went WSW 5-7" ILX went WSW 7-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 No idea why I'm in a WWA for 5-7in of snow. But pretty much where I figured warnings would end. Sounds like areas south could have mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 WSW criteria are 6 inches in 12 hours OR 8 inches in 24 hours. My point and click shows the main activity (6.2") over an 18 hour period with the highest 12 hour total 3.8". It doesn't meet either requirement. A random click in Peoria shows a similar result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Funny how there is a warning to the north and south of me and i am in an advisory. Do offices not coordinate with each other ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Another swing and a miss for downtown Chicago and points just south. We’re in the sweet spot of the sub forum this year that gets missed to our north and missed to our south with the two biggest events of the season. If we can muster 2” with this system (which is looking unlikely), we would tie our season high. Perhaps the one behind this late next weekend can bring us some love. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Funny how there is a warning to the north and south of me and i am in an advisory. Do offices not coordinate with each other ? You are under NWS Wilmington I believe. I'm right there with you on the boarder darke county. In 4-6 range with WWA of 3-5. I look for an upgrade later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, CoachLB said: You are under NWS Wilmington I believe. I'm right there with you on the boarder darke county. In 4-6 range with WWA of 3-5. I look for an upgrade later. Yes Wilmington covers my area. Indy covers the counties west and north of me and they are all under warnings. I guess Wilmington is not as confident as Indy is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The winter of the mood flake.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Locked and loaded. I’ll take my 6” storm and run to the bank with it. Should be a nice event. Especially for those of us screwed by the November blizzard. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 54 minutes ago, eureka22 said: WSW criteria are 6 inches in 12 hours OR 8 inches in 24 hours. My point and click shows the main activity (6.2") over an 18 hour period with the highest 12 hour total 3.8". It doesn't meet either requirement. A random click in Peoria shows a similar result. Yea but areas south really aren't going to see a different timing then us. Esp by I72. Hence my confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 06z HRRR stalls the northern fringe pretty close to here and Cedar Rapids, and drops <0.1" of precip at both locations. Going to be a nail biter here lol. It's an outlier, as most other models show 0.2-0.3" for both areas. Gonna keep riding my 1-2" call for here, and go with 2-3" for the QC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3-5" seems like a good call for IKK. Wouldn't take too much of a nudge north to realize slightly higher totals...wouldn't take too much of a nudge south to get slightly lower totals. All in all though, looks to be a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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