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Winter Storm!? Jan 12-13th, 2019


cyclone77
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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah you guys are looking pretty good down there.  Looks like you'll be safe from the sharp northern cutoff.  I'm guessing you will be included in the winter storm watches that will be issued in a few hours.

Can you believe I haven't seen a double digit snowfall here since GHD Blizzard 2011? Have got close but no cigar. Would be awesome to get walloped again one of these days. But inverted troughs are notorious for over performing so maybe we could be in for a surprise. Compared to the 12z run which had 7in+ here it has backed off some but still a high end advisory/low end warning snow

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Improvements farther west on 12z NAM12. Slightly stronger h5 low closes with better height rises ahead of it. Also stronger more compact 850 low for a time. The northern stream confluence stays farther northeast so the dry air issue is reduced westward, resulting in a much better run for and gradient shunted northward a bit in northern IL.

 

Issue I'm seeing farther east into IN and OH is related to the slower and stronger ULL, keeping stronger forcing farther west, which makes for a narrower slightly less intense precip shield, likely also more of a struggle with dry air at least initially. By the time the system slowly tracks eastward, upper wave dampens and cuts off the accumulating snow.

 

Edit: still as Buckeye and others have noted, an improvement from previous runs.

 

 

 

 

 

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nam is back with the rest of the models showing a general 3-4" for i-70.    

2-4"...advisory looks really good right now.    

then after whatever happens with that one over the weekend, we might be tracking a larger event 5-7 days out.  I've seen every possible model scenario for that storm....rain or snow or mix...but the signal for something is pretty strong and consistent across the board.

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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Improvements farther west on 12z NAM12. Slightly stronger h5 low closes with better height rises ahead of it. Also stronger more compact 850 low for a time. The northern stream confluence stays farther northeast so the dry air issue is reduced westward, resulting in a much better run for and gradient shunted northward a bit in northern IL.

Issue I'm seeing farther east into IN and OH is related to the slower and stronger ULL, keeping stronger forcing farther west, which makes for a narrower less intense precip shield, likely also more of a struggle with dry air at least initially. By the time the system slowly tracks eastward, upper wave dampens and cuts off the accumulating snow.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

it's actually improved further east for us as well...coming in line with the other models.

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it's actually improved further east for us as well...coming in line with the other models.
Yeah, true, was more pointing out relative to same latitude zone farther west why the same huge totals aren't expanding east and narrower area of decent totals. Looks possibly more mesoscale banding driven farther east just eyeballing it.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Yeah, true, was more pointing out relative to same latitude zone farther west why the same huge totals aren't expanding east and narrower area of decent totals. Looks possibly more mesoscale banding driven farther east just eyeballing it.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

these type of storms seem to like i-70 for some reason when it comes to that narrow banding.

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11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Improvements farther west on 12z NAM12. Slightly stronger h5 low closes with better height rises ahead of it. Also stronger more compact 850 low for a time. The northern stream confluence stays farther northeast so the dry air issue is reduced westward, resulting in a much better run for and gradient shunted northward a bit in northern IL.

Issue I'm seeing farther east into IN and OH is related to the slower and stronger ULL, keeping stronger forcing farther west, which makes for a narrower less intense precip shield, likely also more of a struggle with dry air at least initially. By the time the system slowly tracks eastward, upper wave dampens and cuts off the accumulating snow.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

3km NAM also much improved for I-80 through IA/IL/IN with at least some precip up to the WI/MI border. Still not as far north as its 12km companion, but definitely much more in line with most of the models at this point. It will be interesting to see if we continue the northward shift or if we readjust back to the south a bit over the next day or so.

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4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Not sure that's great. Lol. Temps will be warmer with lower ratios

I'm tired of, seemingly, 90% of our snow events dumping their loads in the middle of the night.  As I get older, I just don't feel like getting out of bed at 3am to look at snow in the street light.  I want to see beautiful snowflakes pouring down in daylight.

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18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm tired of, seemingly, 90% of our snow events dumping their loads in the middle of the night.  As I get older, I just don't feel like getting out of bed at 3am to look at snow in the street light.  I want to see beautiful snowflakes pouring down in daylight.

Totally understand that. But better when you have cold temperatures during the day. These are pretty marginal 

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5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I am anticipating 2-4" here although i am hopeful i get lucky and get more.

That's a good bet right now.  If it pans out as currently forecast totals in Central In. will depend on the low level dry air.  The quicker the column saturates the better.  Models currently showing 70-80% humidity at the onset so it won't take much.  There's also some convection down south that could potentially sap some moisture.  It's not going to be a storm per se, just 24 hours of snow globe.  There can be surprises + or -.  I'll take what I can get and agree 2-4 is a good call right now.

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16 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 00z euro ticked south for my area and now the 12z euro jumped even farther south.  The euro went from most bullish to driest for CR.

Yeah with that new Euro I have a feeling other models will tick south. I’m going to go for 1-2 inches in my area. Could be more but I’m being conservative now

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