AppsRunner Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Another rather sizable shift northward in the Euro ensembles with I-80 south all seeing measurable precip. Southern IL to SE IN still with the greatest accumulations. At least some of our members in the Ohio Valley will get their first real snow this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, Cincy02 said: Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I'd definitely be concerned about low level dry air on the northern fringe in a setup like this. Models are supposed to account for that (by not generating qpf when it's too dry) but it doesn't mean they will handle it well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Every single model has the biggest widespread snow event in St. Louis this decade. Rivaling 1-4-14. Pinch me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Who started the fire in here. DT already banned 10 people on FB today. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: I'd definitely be concerned about low level dry air on the northern fringe in a setup like this. Models are supposed to account for that (by not generating qpf when it's too dry) but it doesn't mean they will handle it well. Pwats are ridiculously high I think the Northern edge might be underdone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, The_Global_Warmer said: I think the Northern edge might be underdone Man, I so hope you're right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I could see us in SE Michigan being in the "Screw Zone" for this one as the heaviest snows fall to our south. Still plenty of time though to bring some of those moderate snow accumulations up here though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Could bust the 1/2" mark on this one locally. Best asphalt accumulation of the year!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, The_Global_Warmer said: Pwats are ridiculously high I think the Northern edge might be underdone I am looking at that 1040 mb high just north of the Lakes and thinking it's going to make its presence felt. LOT had some good points in the overnight afd about this kind of storm track not typically bringing much snow to the area, but they also pointed out the impressive jet dynamics. Southern WI/northern IL and eastward into MI is the main potential bust area in terms of dry air. STL is looking to be in a great spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I am looking at that 1040 mb high just north of the Lakes and thinking it's going to make its presence felt. LOT had some good points in the overnight afd about this kind of storm track not typically bringing much snow to the area, but they also pointed out the impressive jet dynamics. Southern WI/northern IL and eastward into MI is the main potential bust area in terms of dry air. STL is looking to be in a great spot. Unfortunately for MBY, I agree. Dewpoint at ORD is only 7F...probably the driest air so far in this joke of a "season". Will take awhile to moisten up, especially with relatively dry NE winds ahead of the storm's arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 NWS Wilmington AFD now at 3-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Given a lousy season thus far, expectations for a bust are at fresh highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 44 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I am looking at that 1040 mb high just north of the Lakes and thinking it's going to make its presence felt. LOT had some good points in the overnight afd about this kind of storm track not typically bringing much snow to the area, but they also pointed out the impressive jet dynamics. Southern WI/northern IL and eastward into MI is the main potential bust area in terms of dry air. STL is looking to be in a great spot. WPC has the high positioned pretty north on their forecast maps. But if that high ends up further south I agree it will make its presence felt with major dry air and hold that precip shield south. Whoever is on the northern fringe of that shield is going to see a sharp cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 ILX mentioned Winter Storm Watches could be issued in the overnight shift if trends continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: ILX mentioned Winter Storm Watches could be issued in the overnight shift if trends continue Curious how far north they would have them. Knowing them probably only to I72 but I think they could up to I74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Curious how far north they would have them. Knowing them probably only to I72 but I think they could up to I74 The way they made it sound it would be a Havana to Champaign line south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 STL AFD is saying widespread 4-6" amounts with higher amounts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 35 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Given a lousy season thus far, expectations for a bust are at fresh highs. your in line for a bout an inch. If you bust it won't be any great shakes, or it'll bust on the upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18z GFS caved and is north among others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 still thinking a solid 2-4 looks good. Finally going to look like winter. ...and the best part is it's actually January....not fcking March or April!!!! What a concept! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18Z FV3 continues to look favorable for most of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: still thinking a solid 2-4 looks good. Finally going to look like winter. ...and the best part is it's actually January....not fcking March or April!!!! What a concept! it ain't down yet. And after you took a shot at my boy Alek in the other thread you may reap his vengeance..."bank clock reads 33" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baum said: it ain't down yet. And after you took a shot at my boy Alek in the other thread you may reap his vengeance..."bank clock reads 33" ask him what's the temperature under Hillary's skirt? 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy02 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, bdgwx said: 18Z FV3 continues to look favorable for most of the subforum. Can you post the link to this again? It looks like the ones you provided earlier both take you to the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Cincy02 said: Can you post the link to this again? It looks like the ones you provided earlier both take you to the OP run. mag is op mageval is parallel The sites look exactly the same and the links are similar. Best to just click them below. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov - parallel http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov - op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18Z GFS/FV3 QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy02 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, bdgwx said: mag is op mageval is parallel The sites look exactly the same and the links are similar. Best to just click them below. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov - parallel http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov - op I see. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18z rgem looks pretty at 54.... might signal a nice 00z ggem run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 IF the FV3 solution verifies this could be biggest single event total in the last 6 or 7 years around here at 8 or 9 inches. Not a lot of confidence in that. Still time for Lucy. Better bet is less right now. Just sayin', we're a little overdue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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