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gravitylover

Interior NW & NE Burbs 2019

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2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Too easy. Id say you should try to make it harder...but i fear you hear that a lot. 

 

Giggity. Lol

Sounds like my Friday night but I digress. I actually understood more of @Juliancoltonpost than normal. I agree, it’s a state of mind. If you want rapid fire misinterpretation of model runs as they come out then this is the wrong thread for you. I take my sweet time with my misinterpretations. 

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3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

That's because you look so young :rolleyes:

I look 25. Feel 60. Act 12. 

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wow Im shocked = kids schools have 2 hour delay in the A.M,,,,what the goonie goo goo ? Just got the call Im amazed as it should not be bad at all ,,,,maybe 2 inches if we are lucky ?

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9 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

image.png

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WOW HV21 did they up those totals,,,,,I did not expect to see 8 - 12 so far South thought that would be more in the 4 -8 range at least until the over night guidance verified it what do they see ?

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1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

The interior burbs thread isn't defined by geographic boundaries, but by a state of mind. If you like a more mellow pace of posting, genuine interaction instead of perpetual MJO jousting, and a come-what-may attitude (and pina coladas), this is the place to be... no matter where you live. :)

Appreciate the welcome. The main forum just reads like a "measuring" contest more often than not. 

There are a lot of great posters in there, and the mods do a great job filtering. Nice to catch a break from the hostility though. 

Cheers!

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20 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

WOW HV21 did they up those totals,,,,,I did not expect to see 8 - 12 so far South thought that would be more in the 4 -8 range at least until the over night guidance verified it what do they see ?

I guess they bumped the snow totals up a little. The WSW posted before had a general amount of 6-10" for Orange and Putnam counties. My point and click forecast  for MBY has a total of 5-11'.

It will be interesting too see the 00z runs tonight after the west coast system has been better sampled.

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2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I guess they bumped the snow totals up a little. The WSW posted before had a general amount of 6-10" for Orange and Putnam counties. My point and click forecast  for MBY has a total of 5-11'.

It will be interesting too see the 00z runs tonight after the west coast system has been better sampled.

Yeah I hear you and I will be up and waiting on all the late night runs but I don't get how THEY upped the totals without that overnight intel ? I mean even I am in the 8-12 range and I would take that and run right now

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Whatever falls...good luck to you all come late sunday afternoon...hardened cement everywhere. Oof. 

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Ratios will def be low with this system. Here's the NAM sounding for the period of peak forcing at my coordinates. The strongest negative omega is almost perfectly relegated to the -1C to -5C layer, which is too warm for most ice nuclei to activate, let alone for efficient snow growth by deposition. In the event this profile pans out, we'd basically be relying on the cloud layer above 650 mb or so to produce ice crystals with weak broad-scale ascent and feed them into the mid-levels, where they'd grow by riming and aggregation... but those only get you a fraction of the snow growth as would efficient vapor diffusion. Kind of a waste of what looks to be wicked frontogenesis between 850 and 700mb.

If any of us managed to stay all snow, I wouldn't bet on anything higher than 7 or 8:1 storm average.

ur64npz.png

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14 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Ratios will def be low with this system. Here's the NAM sounding for the period of peak forcing at my coordinates. The strongest negative omega is almost perfectly relegated to the -1C to -5C layer, which is too warm for most ice nuclei to activate, let alone for efficient snow growth by deposition. In the event this profile pans out, we'd basically be relying on the cloud layer above 650 mb or so to produce ice crystals with weak broad-scale ascent and feed them into the mid-levels, where they'd grow by riming and aggregation... but those only get you a fraction of the snow growth as would efficient vapor diffusion. Kind of a waste of what looks to be wicked frontogenesis between 850 and 700mb.

If any of us managed to stay all snow, I wouldn't bet on anything higher than 7 or 8:1 storm average.

ur64npz.png

Grainy wet snow. Thatll be fun when the rain comes. Ugh. 

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4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Grainy wet snow. Thatll be fun when the rain comes. Ugh. 

Yep, all the headache with none of the satiation. That's how it looks to me anyway... I'm still kind of reeling from my botched call for the November storm and afraid to stick my neck out all the way again, lol

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5 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The interior burbs thread isn't defined by geographic boundaries, but by a state of mind. If you like a more mellow pace of posting, genuine interaction instead of perpetual MJO jousting, and a come-what-may attitude (and pina coladas), this is the place to be... no matter where you live. :)

I prefer margaritas. 

8-12? 4-8 maybe before the frozen stuff. If, IF, some of the posters in the main storm thread are reading things right I guess it's possible the storm center stays far enough south and offshore to keep the winds favorable up here leading to the higher total snowfall numbers. That sounding JC posted though kind of show lower ratios, here I'm thinking even lower than that 7 or 8:1, 5 or 6 seem more likely. I'd like to see a sounding for Danbury.

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I'm still struggling with how the lp center pushes as far north as modeled before exiting stage right. It's like the models found the weakness in the hp and are determined to press into it.

Snow googles for me; but I dread the amount of ice progged down here. 

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9 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Yep, all the headache with none of the satiation. That's how it looks to me anyway... I'm still kind of reeling from my botched call for the November storm and afraid to stick my neck out all the way again, lol

Then again if excellent eclipse viewing comes to fruition Sunday Night and the progged excellent pattern begins around Jan 25 and lasts for 8 weeks, this storm will be a distant memory unless it overproduces.

 

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1/2”. 

 

Well technically .48965. But rob doesnt like me measuring that accurately.  

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