mattie g Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: People South of DC analysis...models looking good holding firm a little north. People around DC...models are close looks like a decent event as is with room for improvement People North of DC...there are so many things that can go wrong. If this goes this way or if this happens like this nobody gets anything....just keepin it real. Ji...its a disaster 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Sticking with my 1-2 (maybe 3) but that is because I am stubborn more then anything else. But I do like what I am seeing so far with the NS not dropping the hammer down as much as I thought we would see. But it doesn't take much in the way of adjustments to that feature to make or break the region and we still have roughly 3 days to go. So I am sure you can do the math. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6z GEFS is the best run I've seen for your subforum with this. Good luck! 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6z FV3. A tick south of the 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: The latest NAm shows pretty well what I have mentioned several times over the last few days and why I haven't been particularly high on this storm with it being at best a 1 to 2 inch type deal (3 inches if you include fluff factor/ratios) for DC and north. The biggest fly in the ointment has been/still is what we are seeing with the NS. Below we have the latest NAM run. Notice the feature circled in the NE? That is where the NS is dipping down into the US. When you compare this to the next map (00z GFS) you can see how much farther the height lines are sagging south. What this is doing is squashing the system farther to the south and not allowing it amplify/strengthen. Pretty much a double whammy as the precip shield shifts south with the low and the low is weaker thus not as able to pump moisture over the cold dome of air through the region. Pretty horrible run for our region and if it weren't for some light WAA snows well in advance of the system we would be talking shutout. Now I didn't throw the NAM up because I thought it was right. it is after all at the range and I take nothing it shows serious outside of 24-36 hours. I just threw it up there to show you how important the NS up in the NE is to our snowfall chances. If you go back through the runs the last few days you can pretty much see how our fortunes lie with how that feature sets up and moves (excepting where we see partial or full phases). Solutions that showed not as much sag south or a quicker departing NS were typically our much better solutions as they allowed the southern low to pull farther north and strengthen. Conversely the deeper sagging and/or slower departing solutions were more our duds as the NS acted to squash and weaken everything farther to our south. I still think there is potential here despite my thoughts on a weaker system. If we can get that NS feature to play nice there is actually some good upside. That is one feature I will be keeping an eye on (between gambling ) in the coming runs as the models should start really getting locked into that feature. Is this exactly what happened with the December storm? That ended up further north than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 So it's the NAM, ICON, and to an extent the Euro vs. every other model. If the Euro doesn't improve this afternoon I'll be a little worried. However my bar is 3" and I think at this point I'll probably reach it. Even the Euro gives me about that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Looking forward to euro 6z run.. well..not certain I am or not but interested 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Is this exactly what happened with the December storm? That ended up further north than modeled. Really didn't do a postmortem on that storm because it was just to dam depressing. But if I remember correctly the models pretty much had that feature nailed down (NS and the suppression) and the move northward was more the models picking up on the farther north expansion of the precip field from the low which we see quite often occur. So when you hear someone bringing up a move north within 24-36 hours they are typically referring not so much to the low but the precip field itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just to remind everyone how far forecasting has come: 1940s.....cloudy vs. precip. 1980s....."chance rain or snow" 2000.....chance of flurries or light snow now...we have a good idea when it will start and stop, the precip. type and intensity and the locales that are favored. We have reasonable cross-model agreement. GFS and NAM both depict a strung out weak and poorly-precipted system. Flurries at the M-D Line and 1-3 DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Best FV3 Accum map I’ve seen so far for the entire CWA. 95 and east actually see less snow than the interior...particularly the WNW suburbs of dc and Baltimore proper. I would take this run in a heartbeat. 8” of snow for Howard county? YEP.. We are entering global model territory... not to say the euro should be discounted, but it doesn’t do well with short term mesoscale prediction. I do like the overall trend and the room for improvement is still very much there. If i lived in central nj PA and north to nyc, I’d be sounding the alarm. But we should all be happy with a good 2-4” event to kick off a very wild and wintry pattern, with a moderate chance that it overperforms 2-4. If I lived in the central VA to Bristow area... I’d be getting real excited here Three things are for sure 1) snow is coming this weekend. Now is it 2-4 or 4-8? 2) all models show the 1/22-1/24 timeframe is ripe for a monster HECS 3) this upcoming pattern is for real and WILL be prolonged. The pattern actually gets better and better on the models as time goes on. Buckle up everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Have to like the run over run tendency for the GEFS to continue to downplay the NS to our north east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Side note: I do not like that the NAM showing what the euro showed for days. Not making me feel any more confident. This is what I was alluding to last night in my sleepy banter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Seeing on phillywx the 6z Euro not as good for that area, not sure what it means for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 It all comes down to the NS. Almost every single model has the same exact look, until the storm gets to the East Coast. At that moment, is the NS overbearing? Or has it relaxed in time? That makes or breaks this storm. Particularly for the northern half of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Seeing on phillywx the 6z Euro not as good for that area, not sure what it means for us. I'm not sure who is saying that on phillywx -- 06z Euro, out to hr90 (00z Monday) gives DC close to 3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, jayyy said: Best FV3 Accum map I’ve seen so far for the entire CWA. 95 and east actually see less snow than the interior...particularly the WNW suburbs of dc and Baltimore proper. I would take this run in a heartbeat. 8” of snow for Howard county? YEP.. We are entering global model territory... not to say the euro should be discounted, but it doesn’t do well with short term mesoscale prediction. I do like the overall trend and the room for improvement is still very much there. If i lived in central nj PA and north to nyc, I’d be sounding the alarm. But we should all be happy with a good 2-4” event to kick off a very wild and wintry pattern, with a moderate chance that it overperforms 2-4. If I lived in the central VA to Bristow area... I’d be getting real excited here Three things are for sure 1) snow is coming this weekend. Now is it 2-4 or 4-8? 2) all models show the 1/22-1/24 timeframe is ripe for a monster HECS 3) this upcoming pattern is for real and WILL be prolonged. The pattern actually gets better and better on the models as time goes on. Buckle up everyone! Actually out of all the globals the Euro is consistently better because of its higher resolution. And while I wouldn't dismiss any of the globals once we get within 24-36 hours, the mesos probably are the ones you begin putting heavier emphasis on because of their ability to pick up on the finer features with their higher resolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 hours ago, jayyy said: Best FV3 Accum map I’ve seen so far for the entire CWA. 95 and east actually see less snow than the interior...particularly the WNW suburbs of dc and Baltimore proper. I would take this run in a heartbeat. 8” of snow for Howard county? YEP.. We are entering global model territory... not to say the euro should be discounted, but it doesn’t do well with short term mesoscale prediction. I do like the overall trend and the room for improvement is still very much there. If i lived in central nj PA and north to nyc, I’d be sounding the alarm. But we should all be happy with a good 2-4” event to kick off a very wild and wintry pattern, with a moderate chance that it overperforms 2-4. If I lived in the central VA to Bristow area... I’d be getting real excited here Three things are for sure 1) snow is coming this weekend. Now is it 2-4 or 4-8? 2) all models show the 1/22-1/24 timeframe is ripe for a monster HECS 3) this upcoming pattern is for real and WILL be prolonged. The pattern actually gets better and better on the models as time goes on. Buckle up everyone! I am fairly excited and think anyone I-66, where I live close to, and south should be excited from east to west. Will ratchet excitement up when I see a WSW. But I have seen things go to the crapper quick around here and in closer range. But an all snow event with no thermal issues is rare indeed for all of us. EDIT: I am much less excited after seeing the trends at h5. if it gets any worse or dampens much more this is a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, mappy said: I'm not sure who is saying that on phillywx -- 06z Euro, out to hr90 (00z Monday) gives DC close to 3" It is a drier run overall though, especially south. NS over NE dives further south squashing the flow a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: It all comes down to the NS. Almost every single model has the same exact look, until the storm gets to the East Coast. At that moment, is the NS overbearing? Or has it relaxed in time? That makes or breaks this storm. Particularly for the northern half of the CWA. The "storm" is trending weaker...too progressive...any NS/SS phase occurs too late for us and just NE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm not sure who is saying that on phillywx -- 06z Euro, out to hr90 (00z Monday) gives DC close to 3" So about the same as 0z, still a decent light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: It is a drier run overall though, especially south. NS over NE dives further south squashing the flow a bit. I can't say I have paid attention to what is happening further south. I know for my backyard it is a bit better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Anybody got a precip map on the 6z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, winterymix said: The "storm" is trending weaker...too progressive...any NS/SS phase occurs too late for us and just NE of us. But the weaker and progressive flow is in response to the NS. Weaker because the NS is not giving the storm room to amplify and more progressive because we see very little height rises in front of it to slow the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: So about the same as 0z, still a decent light event. Yeah, as LP08 mentioned a bit more confluence so its squashing the flow but its another run with general 2-4” throughout the area through Sunday at 7pm (when the run ends). It seems we’re getting locked on a good advisory event to kick off the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, mappy said: I can't say I have paid attention to what is happening further south. I know for my backyard it is a bit better. Does that mean southern York County is also better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Signs of the coastal on the end of the euro run? I.e., is it still snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: So about the same as 0z, still a decent light event. 0z and 6z. Maybe a little more to come on 6z since there was more energy held back after 90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Signs of the coastal on the end of the euro run? I.e., is it still snowing? It is lightly. There was notably more energy held back than 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Have to like the run over run tendency for the GEFS to continue to downplay the NS to our north east. that has been something I've been pondering as well. Seems like both GEPS and GEFS are more north wrt qpf distribution. Have to hope they are correct, but we are now close enough that Op runs start to hold more weight. Should know the winner later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: Does that mean southern York County is also better? Yes. ~2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Pretty big spread between the Euro and GFS twins out this way. Euro is 3-5 GFS would be 7+. At least a shutout is looking less likely for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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