tplbge Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: SLP is in extreme W TN according to the 00z NAM at 78 High to the North is slightly weaker and NW of previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: NAM tries to jump to NC cost at 81. Who knows what it would do after that? It does make the jump at 84 fwiw... looks to be in the midst of transferring I believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 General 2-3" across most of the area... 1-2 down towards EZF and CHO through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 It does make the jump at 84 fwiw... looks to be in the midst of transferring I believeLooks like an awful Miller b 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Cips analogs look good but every piece of guidance shows the shred factory @ h5. Shortwave looks great at first but gets pancaked. Not sure that can be overcome enough to match top analog snowfalls 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: It does make the jump at 84 fwiw... looks to be in the midst of transferring I believe NAM’s depiction of qpf and precip shield is mind boggling to say the least compared to other guidance. What an odd run albeit it is the Nam way out in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, yoda said: General 2-3" across most of the area... 1-2 down towards EZF and CHO through 84 definitely not what i expected, but its the NAM at range, and once coastal takes over, who knows. . I'm tossing, not cause it is paltry w/ qpf, but evolution at the end seemed wonky. at 72 it seemed to meet the meat ginder. Transfer between 81 and 84 just didnt look good IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: NAM’s depiction of qpf and precip shield is mind boggling to say the least compared to other guidance. What an odd run albeit it is the Nam way out in time. Yep. Most of VA dryslots when it makes the jump. We dont know if would try to climb the coast from there. With that brick wall to the north I doubt it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Cips analogs look good but every piece of guidance shows the shred factory @ h5. Shortwave looks great at first but gets pancaked. Not sure that can be overcome enough to match top analog snowfalls I agree. And I think the pattern analogs are missing that fact. But I've told myself things like "they aren't seeing the high" or "there is a colder airmass this time" or "the flow isn't as progressive" when over the years guidance looked good but those analogs suggested a warmer or more out to sea outcome. And a few times the models caved to the analog guidance. But sometimes it didn't. I doubt this time goes that way but it's still worth throwing it out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, yoda said: It does make the jump at 84 fwiw... looks to be in the midst of transferring I believe Looks like an awful Miller b I thought Miller B storms were northern stream systems that jump to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Maybe govt shutdown is affecting nam too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Yep. Most of VA dryslots when it makes the jump. We dont know if would try to climb the coast from there. With that brick wall to the north I doubt it though. It’s so far off the coast and so weak not sure it would matter. We have yet to be NAM’ed. Might be an omen. Looks like basically WAA snows then coastal robs moisture and OTS. At least on that run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Yep. Most of VA dryslots when it makes the jump. We dont know if would try to climb the coast from there. With that brick wall to the north I doubt it though. As others have said, 500 ain’t pretty. We don’t want a system weakening or “pancaking” upon approach. That’s a story we’ve seen play out before. I’d like to see a north shift with this to be on the safe side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 @Bob Chill I do wonder if we can get this amplified enough in the TN Valley if it might not simply hold together well enough to jump to and reamplify on the coast. Guidance might be shredding it too quickly and undergoing the ridging in front as it gets going in the miss valley. I'm not saying a hecs solution but I could see one of those 6-10" ensemble ideas that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cips analogs look good but every piece of guidance shows the shred factory @ h5. Shortwave looks great at first but gets pancaked. Not sure that can be overcome enough to match top analog snowfalls We're about 22" short at the moment. Really going to need a major difference with the NS, it's one of those setups where the great pattern is there for a moment, but isn't anchored down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 For those that haven't, don't look at the 0Z NAM. That's a strung out, hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Read first post later 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s so far off the coast and so weak not sure it would matter. We have yet to be NAM’ed. Might be an omen. Looks like basically WAA snows then coastal robs moisture and OTS. At least on that run I agree. As much as I don’t want to—these west-east clipper type events (I know this has more moisture than a typical clip but..) come along and any phasing tends to be too far N or OTS. The nature of living here for decades. I just think we are grasping when we don’t have the true LP from the south. I’ve learned that if we are wishing for a phase “in time”—tends not to work. I’m always hopeful—maybe Euro finds it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nam won’t pick up on the proper evolution past 60hrs. But the strung out factor is increasing across guidance. I still like my mind set from beginning of 2-4”. More is better but euro will most likely start leveling expectations at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 My zone forecast is not scared by the NAM. Snow likely for 4 cycles Sat to Sun night. Take that you miserable meso 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cips analogs look good but every piece of guidance shows the shred factory @ h5. Shortwave looks great at first but gets pancaked. Not sure that can be overcome enough to match top analog snowfalls What continues to amaze (frustrate) me about our region is how even the things we need (like high pressure) can't be too much or too little. Not enough for the elements to just be there...they gotta be just right! Here we have this monster high in an ideal spot...but now it might shred off some of the potential (perhaps I'm not understanding that properly). Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I think a good rule of thumb for these type of things is not to live and die by each model run. A couple hours ago Euro came in and looked pretty great, so did GEFS, and people saying that this is trending towards a major event. Then the NAM has a bad run and now everyone's saying we're going to dry slot and 2-4 at best. Let's see what 00z says tonight and see if a trend is being established, or if the NAM is just off this run. luckily in about 36-48 hours we can watch this thing track across the country and see what's really going on and then we can set our expectations accordingly before the onset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 ICON tapping the gulf a lot more than the NAM. Better precip field for sure. But it jumps to NC coast at 84 as well. Uhoh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: ICON tapping the gulf a lot more than the NAM. Better precip field for sure. But it jumps to NC coast at 84 as well. Uhoh. Hypothetically...if it were to do that...what would cause that? The high or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Icon looks identical to its 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 00z ICON doesn't look as good as 18z but can't live by each run. Precip shield not as expansive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 ICON tapping the gulf a lot more than the NAM. Better precip field for sure. But it jumps to NC coast at 84 as well. Uhoh.1 step forward 2 back is out go to move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The 500 look between 18z snd 0z are frightening on icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hypothetically...if it were to do that...what would cause that? The high or something else? It's losing its upper level support as the flow gets compressed and starts to de amplify and its running into resistance at the surface from the apps and the high pressure and so it jumps to the next least hostile environment which is the barclinoc zone along the coast. The jump isn't the problem. Some of our big storms take that track. The problem is the storm is washing out and the lift mechanisms are dying. In simplistic terms the initial wave from the west is dying as it approached and the new low developing on the coast is too weak to do much for us until it's too late. If you want to keep yourself up all night out total fail scenario would be for the initial waa wave to either die or ride to our north with minimal impact and then the coastal to develop too late and we end up in a snow hole. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: The 500 look between 18z snd 0z are frightening on icon Hammer time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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