MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I think that map looks pretty good. If the qpf stripe is better aligned for dc area it's a minor adjustment. I'm starting to lean towards 3-6 for the corridor instead of 2-4" but i'd like to see guidance converge. Icon/gfs/cmc are still jumping around too much to feel confident. Yeah, that's basically where I'm at too. The dry air aspect in the beginning leaves me hesitant on putting out the higher totals because there might be some virga to overcome in the initial WAA stuff. Once the atmosphere moistens up though, every single flake will stick with ease. If we can get more action when the coastal begins to take shape, then it's a go for the larger accumulations. If I'm forecasting for the corridor, I start with 1-3/2-4 and adjust up if I see everything coming together. Euro being steady is a huge positive. It's got a better handle on the southern stream and it's been doing a fairly solid job out here with all the systems rolling through. It's been the most consistent of every model in terms of H5 trough placement and precip field. I think GFS was a little more gung-ho on the southern precip field a few days ago, but once the Euro caught on, it's been very consistent with the GFS jumping around on QPF maxes. This setup is one where it will not take much precip to drop close to warning levels. I like areas like the Blue Ridge south of Winchester to be in the bullseye just due to the upslope factor in the initial precip field. That's why I actually like TWC 's map. I guess there's a first time for everything lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Good call. This panel is money and explains why the gefs had so many juicy solutions Wow if that panel is true. Talk about a totally different storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I know some people hate hearing posts like this but i'm tossing all ops except the euro if it doesn't waver at 0z tonight. Its been the most consistent and appears lasered in. Qpf distribution always moves around a little but the euro is being really stready with the progression. The question is are we close enough to the event that you will stay up for the Euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Good call. This panel is money and explains why the gefs had so many juicy solutions The bigger question is can it climb the coast or go OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I know some people hate hearing posts like this but i'm tossing all ops except the euro if it doesn't waver at 0z tonight. Its been the most consistent and appears lasered in. Qpf distribution always moves around a little but the euro is being really stready with the progression. I think it has moved around. It was very suppressed then surged north on the euro. She's having trouble from the foul line this yeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Interstate said: The bigger question is can it climb the coast or go OTS? That high pressure is parked right over top and confluence is strong. I could see central NJ doing well but NYC and ne of there are pretty much out of the game. Still possible but the shift in guidance would have to start at 0z tonight. On another note... The navgem finally jumped on board. Progressive bias model and has been consistently weaker/sheared/south but 18z is a decent now. I think our chances at getting whiffed are almost gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: The bigger question is can it climb the coast or go OTS? The former would probably put us in that 5-7 zone. OTS is starting to look like low end stuff but euro will weigh in soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 35 minutes ago, Chris78 said: How far north is the. 25" qpf line? 0.1” is up in central NJ...totals are heavier as you travel west. Lots of breathing room on the 18z imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: 0.1” is up in central NJ...totals are heavier as you travel west. Lots of breathing room on the 18z imo. I think the Euro is primed to up the ante to a 4-8 inch type storm. It’s been progressing that way. And we could pull that off with .6 qpf and decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Slight bump north of the 0.5” QPF line on the 18z EPS. 0.5” is now in between Balt/DC. Also 0.75” area over ORF/extreme SE VA which wasn’t there at 12z....perhaps a few more members than 12z with the tucked in coastal? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I think the Euro is primed to up the ante to a 4-8 inch type storm. It’s been progressing that way. And we could pull that off with .6 qpf and decent ratios. It's not just QPF that gets you good snow. Having prolonged lift through the DGZ is equally vital, otherwise its mangled flakes that don't accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Slight bump north of the 0.5” QPF line on the 18z EPS. 0.5” is now in between Balt/DC. Also 0.75” area over ORF/extreme SE VA which wasn’t there at 12z....perhaps a few more members than 12z with the tucked in coastal? You have been a pillar in this potential event with the play by play. Many thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I think the Euro is primed to up the ante to a 4-8 inch type storm. It’s been progressing that way. And we could pull that off with .6 qpf and decent ratios. Is there a possibility of that? Absolutely given some of these ensemble members but 2-4” seems a good forecast right now. Could easily see that bump to 3-6” but would need to see some more consistency in the models before I buy into 3-6”, as Bob mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Slight bump north of the 0.5” QPF line on the 18z EPS. 0.5” is now in between Balt/DC. Also 0.75” area over ORF/extreme SE VA which wasn’t there at 12z....perhaps a few more members than 12z with the tucked in coastal? Appreciate the 18z eps recap. 12z was already in strong agreement. My guess is 18z bumping the mean qpf north is probably a sign that there are even fewer whiffs. 18z ensembles are solid tonight 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I've removed all of the rugs in my house just to be safe 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I think the Euro is primed to up the ante to a 4-8 inch type storm. It’s been progressing that way. And we could pull that off with .6 qpf and decent ratios. 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's not just QPF that gets you good snow. Having prolonged lift through the DGZ is equally vital, otherwise its mangled flakes that don't accumulate. Yeah...that’s probably why he included the qualifier “with decent ratios.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, mattie g said: Yeah...that’s probably why he included the qualifier “with decent ratios.” Lol. Yea, 7 times out of 10 we're living and dying by ratios to overcome lukewarm surface. I'll take .4 spread out over 24 hours with frozen ground versus .4 in 6 hours at 35 degrees. 2 completely different events. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Yea, 7 times out of 10 we're living and dying by ratios to overcome lukewarm surface. I'll take .4 spread out over 24 hours with frozen ground versus .4 in 6 hours at 35 degrees. 2 completely different events. This. Not having to worry about temps and precip type is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nam at 48 is a lot less organized than it was on the 18Z run. That is all I will take away from the run though. Anything after 48 is useless on that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Nam at 48 is a lot less organized than it was on the 18Z run. That is all I will take away from the run though. Anything after 48 is useless on that model. While true, it is a little north at 00z 51 comparing it to 18z 57 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I'm expecting about 1-2" from this event, with probably more towards DC. Hopefully I'm too low, but it will seem tough to get a strong enough system to move into the ideal position for a significant event here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: While true, it is a little north at 00z 51 comparing it to 18z 57 More interested to see if it goes with WAA snows...lull..then coastal. Not a fan of that scenario but not in charge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 It's trending toward a major event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 00z NAM at 57 has closed h5 in S KS... 18z at 63 was in N OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's trending toward a major event. Certainly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nam most certainly looks better at 500 far better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Light snow at 66 entering DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Cips analogs still think the pattern is more loaded than the ops and perhaps we are giving it credit for. Sometimes I like to look earlier in the progression to see what the setup lead too. Looking at the Mississippi valley cips thinks this should be an amped up system. Some of the analogs are 2-12-1983, 2-5-2010, pd2, 2-22-16, feb 87, and 1-7-96! Lol The most impressive look might be the southeast as the system approaches. The top analogs are 1. Feb 5 2010, 3. Feb 83, 4. Dec 2009 The flow does deamplify some by the time it's on the east coast but even then the top analogs include feb 83, 2-12-2006, pd 1979, psuhoffman 2011, pd2, and 1-25-2000 and the mean looks like ... now this guidance is not perfect. obviously all of the operationals are currently deamplifying the system much more than the analogs to the current pattern did. But there are members in the ensembles that suggest a bigger event isn't out of the question and the analog guidance says the pattern supports that idea so perhaps it's not out of the question. I would still favor a moderate event. I think cips is likely missing the weakness and the disorganization of the vorts in this setup now and maybe is underestimating the impact of the high but at times I've ignored these analogs when they were suggesting something I didn't like only to see the guidance flip towards what the analogs suggested so it's worth keeping the door open to a more amplified system. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 SLP is in extreme W TN according to the 00z NAM at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 NAM tries to jump to NC cost at 81. Who knows what it would do after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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