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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

that I did not know.  Thanks.  Thought it was 5 regardless. so 12hours or more is 7+?

Winter Storm Warning

A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent.

Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:
1)  5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period
AND/OR
2)  Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.
AND/OR
3)  a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.

The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period).

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#Winter Storm Warning

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Just now, midatlanticweather said:

It gets easy to put on weenie glasses when looking at the models. Also, the desired and believed North trend. Nothing seems to point to shutout, but we are not super far from something more substantial. I am ok with a light snow when I was thinking it was a long shot last week, but we always think the chances of snow in the region are limited, so we want to capitalize on every opportunity and have it in our back yard. My thinking is just N of Richmond does best and of course SW VA and Mountains are a given. Hoping for the run up the coast though... at least there is a chance!

I'll go with if there's a central VA jack @ 72 hours then expecting a 50-100 mile north shift as the leads close will be right more often than wrong. Even Dec did that... but it wasn't enough... A lot of folks on the northern edge got surprised with big totals though. IMO- if we are locked into a light/mod event @ hr72 and there's a big jack through central VA then it's coming. At least to Rockville anyways. Sorry PSU...

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We can probably just blend ops at this point. The wide spread on the ensembles adds more confusion than it helps. If we see any legit trend towards a coastal runner then we can start talking about big hits but for now it seems that a light to maybe moderate event is the most likely by far. 

the spread is weird and I do think indicates the delicate situation here.  Typically the hive mind is in effect at this range but this run has extreme spread.  That, to me, says this could go either way depending on small variances in the strength of the vort and coastal development.  The euro and EPS will be more telling of course...if we see a similar phenomenon there then we might have to entertain the possibility this could evolve towards a more amplified coastal situation.   If the EPS uniformly rejects the idea then its logical to conclude the GEFS is suffering from bad data or bad physics.  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll go with if there's a central VA jack @ 72 hours then expecting a 50-100 mile north shift as the leads close will be right more often than wrong. Even Dec did that... but it wasn't enough... A lot of folks on the northern edge got surprised with big totals though. IMO- if we are locked into a light/mod event @ hr72 and there's a big jack through central VA then it's coming. At least to Rockville anyways. Sorry PSU...

You're not wrong about Dec, expected 2-4" around EZF and ended up with 6.1" all because of the 50 mile late shift North. Can see that happening here too, feel pretty good being down near EZF but would love to see whole subforum cash in. The GEFS had like 17/21 showing 2"+ around EZF with 8 or 9/21 showing 6"+.......

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

the spread is weird and I do think indicates the delicate situation here.  Typically the hive mind is in effect at this range but this run has extreme spread.  That, to me, says this could go either way depending on small variances in the strength of the vort and coastal development.  The euro and EPS will be more telling of course...if we see a similar phenomenon there then we might have to entertain the possibility this could evolve towards a more amplified coastal situation.   If the EPS uniformly rejects the idea then its logical to conclude the GEFS is suffering from bad data or bad physics.  

0z EPS has about 10 good coastal solutions in the mix. Well over half get at least a couple inches into central NJ. Pretty encouraging that we don't get pacman'd but it's delicate so nothing to a foot+ are still the goal posts. 

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:
15 minutes ago, mappy said:
LWX winter storm warning criteria is 5". I get that you aren't happy unless you get a foot or more, but at least be correct with warning criteria information. 

We both know 5 is not wsw in our counties:)

because of where we live we get a warning event more often...that doesn't mean our warning criteria is different...  

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:
16 minutes ago, mappy said:
LWX winter storm warning criteria is 5". I get that you aren't happy unless you get a foot or more, but at least be correct with warning criteria information. 

We both know 5 is not wsw in our counties:)

I didn't know you moved to one of these counties.

The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period).

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25 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

... My current wag off latest guidance is a quicker exit of precip or slower saturation upon onset to override dry mid-levels.

...everyone in DC metro around 2-4" event

Agreed.   Here is another way of saying something similar:

Quote

A surface low is expected to track across the Gulf Coast states Sat-Sun with a second coastal low developing along the North/South Carolina coastline Sat night into Sun morning. By day 5 (Mon) there is some disagreement as to how quickly the low moves out to sea, although consensus has improved toward a track more east-northeasterly out to sea rather than closer to the Northeast U.S. coastline.

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

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15 minutes ago, mappy said:

LWX winter storm warning criteria is 5". I get that you aren't happy unless you get a foot or more, but at least be correct with warning criteria information. 

Mappy, FWIW my criteria for a great snow is 8”+. Metro shuts down outdoor tracks at 8”. 

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45 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Eh. I’ve been here now for 3 winters, I have yet to see warning level snow. I’m kind of bummed that may not happen, no gaurentees ill be here next year.

It will happen.  We just need the perfect storm around here and we can get 2 feet.  It can be frustrating since we have had several bad years.  

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don't get me wrong, I love that we are getting snow and I'm more than satisfied with 2 to 4, but I'm just ****ing irritated with the Nrn stream trying to screw us.

i like the placement of it, but it needs to be weaker than modeled.  not sure how much i buy the high barreling down like it's showing.

in other news, for those not in the obs thread, snow showers incoming?  just got kinda gray out.

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll go with if there's a central VA jack @ 72 hours then expecting a 50-100 mile north shift as the leads close will be right more often than wrong. Even Dec did that... but it wasn't enough... A lot of folks on the northern edge got surprised with big totals though. IMO- if we are locked into a light/mod event @ hr72 and there's a big jack through central VA then it's coming. At least to Rockville anyways. Sorry PSU...

You can have 8" and I will be totally happy with 5.  Just no crazy sharp cutoff that rarely does actually happen between you and me.  January 2010 might be the only time I can actually remember getting fringed when the cities did well.  Only 10/15 miles south of me got 5" though so a slight adjustment to that storm and I would have been very happy too.  

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6 minutes ago, Clueless said:

To clarify:  Is it true the Euro models the NS better than the GFS?

I've heard the opposite but those biases are kinda old and there have been several upgrades to each since then so I have no idea if it's still true at all or just a weenie thing some say to justify their snow goggles.  

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd dig deep and analyze the run but the euro will be out in less than an hour so I'll just completely toss the run and wait. 

4 members showing a foot plus at this lead time shows the potential if all the parts come together. Didn’t say any total whiffs either so it could be worse.

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