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First chance I have had to look at the 12Z runs. The Euro is encouraging to say the least. There is still room for heartbreak though. Any more push from the NE and we are out of the game. I would expect someone on that northern edge to get some banding though. And yes. It doesnt take a rocket scientist (or a meteorologist) to extrapolate the 18z NAM into a crush job. Feeling pretty good about this one. Especially for the southern Shenandoah Valley.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

First chance I have had to look at the 12Z runs. The Euro is encouraging to say the least. There is still room for heartbreak though. Any more push from the NE and we are out of the game. I would expect someone on that northern edge to get some banding though. And yes. It doesnt take a rocket scientist (or a meteorologist) to extrapolate the 18z NAM into a crush job. Feeling pretty good about this one. Especially for the southern Shenandoah Valley.

You’ll do fine especially with the added lift of elevation.  But yes the cutoff is scary.  Keep it north of the forum so we all can enjoy this for once.  Not that often we are all in the game north to south.  

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56 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Let’s keep the shutdown going. Knew Trump would make American models great again

no, thank you.  Id like to get paid sooner rather than later.  I'm essential to my organization and have to work without pay, I'm just not essential to Congress or the Executive branch during their little spat.   

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Not going to dissect too much. Looks great for our region. I'll bet SNE liked the NS better this run. I can easily see how this runs the coast if allowed...

Exactly.  As you said a day or two again when the northern stream gets out of the way, there's room for this to amplify and come up the coast.  Result is a widespread warning-level event for us.  

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not going to dissect too much. Looks great for our region. I'll bet SNE liked the NS better this run. I can easily see how this runs the coast if allowed...

Yeah, this definitely looks better, but I'm not sure how it could climb as you say with a 500 flow in the northeast?

looking a little deeper, i guess your point of SNE liking it is a fair one. 

 

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