stormtracker Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Storm Vista has 6 inches over DC on the Euro. I thought this double jet streak structure was neat. The left front juxtaposed with the right rear quadrant is a favorable combo for a moderate snowstorm and for potential banding. Just printed this post. I'm leaving work early. 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 so now the euro has more snow than the GFS. The icon sniffed it out first though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'll take that one too. If the thermals are that good down south, we should be seeing kind of a smoke show I wish I had soundings to look at DGZ but looking through the layers it looks perfect for high ratio dendrites. Surface mid/upper 20's and 925/850/700 all -4C or colder.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 There's going to be a nasty precip gradient on the northern fringe (wherever that ends up being) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: so now the euro has more snow than the GFS. The icon sniffed it out first though Th icon also shows nada currently lol so can't say it gets any gold stars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Hopefully this means that the EPS should be much better and more fun to look at shortly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 wheres ERS? i was looking forward to his commentary following the Euro 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 so now the euro has more snow than the GFS. The icon sniffed it out first thoughI had mentioned something a few days ago about me observing that the ICON is good sniffing things out early but then loses storms at closer range. This might be another good example of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Just printed this post. I'm leaving work early. It’s going to be a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Hopefully this means that the EPS should be much better and more fun to look at shortly At 5 day leads it will almost certainly support the op in general. 0z EPS started re-introducing some decent hits but just a few. I expect that to increase quite a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, mappy said: wheres ERS? i was looking forward to his commentary following the Euro THE PATTERN!!! HORDERVES!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, mappy said: wheres ERS? i was looking forward to his commentary following the Euro Same commentary ;-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, H2O said: THE PATTERN!!! HORDERVES!!! hahahaha horderves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Same commentary ;-). suppressed slider to the south, got it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 26 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Storm Vista has 6 inches over DC on the Euro. I thought this double jet streak structure was neat. The left front juxtaposed with the right rear quadrant is a favorable combo for a moderate snowstorm and for potential banding. When you say things like “double jet streak” and “potential banding” it makes the weenies, myself included, get a little giddy. Thanks for all you do Wes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Kuchera FTMFW I would do cartwheels and handspring's if that verified. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I wish I had soundings to look at DGZ but looking through the layers it looks perfect for high ratio dendrites. Surface mid/upper 20's and 925/850/700 all -4C or colder.... Hey Bob. Took a look at some cross sections of the Euro via AWIPS over KGAI. During the storm height, there's some modest Q-vector convergence across the DC corridor with H85 and H7 temps correlating to some higher ratio fluff. That's why the discrepancy between the 10:1 and Kuchera were indicative of an extra 2-4" between the two algorithms. Pretty good stuff. Even better lift resides just to the south of DC too, so there's room for improvement if the SS vort can gain more latitude or better phasing between the two streams. Not to mention the jet couplet that Wes posted is a great setup for mesoscale banding across the central Mid Atlantic. A very good run. Hopefully it remains that way. Just want to see y'all get on the board. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's going to be a nasty precip gradient on the northern fringe (wherever that ends up being) By the time it's settled, Tom Brady will be playing in the snow again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 this is how we get our colorado powder. gotta walk that line of suppression vs juiced up enough system when we have a strong high to the north. would be pretty cool if this system is like our rainers, because those had plenty of moisture the last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, mappy said: suppressed slider to the south, got it. its one run....i wouldnt celebrate yet. It might be a hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey Bob. Took a look at some cross sections of the Euro via AWIPS over KGAI. During the storm height, there's some modest Q-vector convergence across the DC corridor with H85 and H7 temps correlating to some higher ratio fluff. That's why the discrepancy between the 10:1 and Kuchera were indicative of an extra 2-4" between the two algorithms. Pretty good stuff. Even better lift resides just to the south of DC too, so there's room for improvement if the SS vort can gain more latitude or better phasing between the two streams. Not to mention the jet couplet that Wes posted is a great setup for mesoscale banding across the central Mid Atlantic. A very good run. Hopefully it remains that way. Just want to see y'all get on the board. Between this and Wes's earlier post, Randy must be running naked through the National Mall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Ji said: its one run....i would celebrate yet. It might be a hiccup feel free to put up where i was celebrating. ill wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Can't wait to post my Richmond Deck Pics again. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Ji said: its one run....i wouldnt celebrate yet. It might be a hiccup Yes we have failed much closer in time than this. IDK this one feels solid. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: its one run....i wouldnt celebrate yet. It might be a hiccup We all know you are secretly celebrating already Ji based off this Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Between this and Wes's earlier post, Randy must be running naked through the National Mall. I certainly wouldn't be celebrating anything yet, but it was a solid run. There's room for improvement, but heartache is right there too. Bob posted that H7 RH plot. The northern extent has a sharp cut due to dry northwesterly flow aloft across PA. Any adjustment south or a weaker vort will entice dry air advection through regions you don't want. It's a fine line. We're not looking a well defined deformation axis, but enough mid and low level convergence to generate a solid precip shield across the Mid Atlantic. I'm still slightly skeptical, but the model runs at 12z were a step in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 48 minutes ago, Scraff said: The Euro. We abscond. It definitely blood-sucking-insected its way a bit farther north for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I put these 500mb frames together for comparative purposes (I know they're not the best maps). I think the GFS/CMC/EURO have been the three that have shown modest run consistency. At 72 hours out they all look pretty similar with the ridging and low placement so thats a good sign When you get to 120 you can see GFS is a little quicker, CMC has less confluence which is why you get a less suppressed solution, and Euro keeps the east coast high pressure in a less favorable position over the lakes So my point being I think the ridge out west is beginning to come into range as to being molded fairly well. One of the big questions is how does the high pressure play out. If we can get it to stay little more relaxed as depicted in the CMC and GFS to an extent, I think we start seeing in the coming model runs a shift of the the best lift and QPF field towards DC/Balt, assuming that the SW holds itself together and the NS doesn't lose its beneficial timing as depicted in the current runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Can't wait to post my Richmond Deck Pics again. I hear the decks in Richmond are much smaller then the decks in Baltimore and DC. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Early in the EPS run but there is more separation between the two SS SW out west and an expanded precip field using the 24 precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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