WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, jackb979 said: Snowing from Saturday night into Sunday evening on GFS. Long way to go with this storm but I'll take it (00z GFS at 132 is $$) 30.25 over DC and low near Norfolk!!! I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 24 minutes ago, Fozz said: Not to mention October 2013... And September 1977... And September 1978 And the last 4 shutdowns that lasted 12 days or more? All climo+ years (two of which contained blizzards, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 00z Ukie precip. Looks more like the ICON than GFS / GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 00z EURO looking less strung out at 114. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Light snow everywhere at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Looks like an eastern NC bullseye on the snowfall maps on SV. Night and day from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Meh but slightly improving. No lp detected Dr. No strikes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The American models continue to be unusable Horrible run. Euro is locked in it appears 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, jaydreb said: Can’t decide if I’m more worried about suppression or overamped/rain. I guess that’s a good sign. I agree. That 1041 skull crusher needs to stay right where it is and radiate downward its marvelous cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: The American models continue to be unusable Horrible run. Euro is locked in it appears It's a pretty awesome setup except for all the stuff off the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Major changes at 500, caves to the Euro. No surprises there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Yeah 6z GFS had the high flex it's muscle and most of the snow stays south of Fredericksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The good thing is even the Euro gives us some snow, Even an inch of snow would be a win. It we could get this to amplify a tiny bit and get 2-4 that would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 29 minutes ago, peribonca said: Yeah 6z GFS had the high flex it's muscle and most of the snow stays south of Fredericksburg. It's not that. Just massive changes over SE Canada in the mid levels. Like pretty amazing how big for 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 29 minutes ago, peribonca said: Yeah 6z GFS had the high flex it's muscle and most of the snow stays south of Fredericksburg. NS energy is not as sharp/further east/out ahead of the SS short wave. No real interaction(phase) and the timing is such that it suppresses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 No one can win in this pattern It's really frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, The_Global_Warmer said: It's not that. Just massive changes over SE Canada in the mid levels. Like pretty amazing how big for 5 days out. Yeah I guess this could be related to the fact that the model is running on its own without anyone monitoring the data as that Washington post article said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, The_Global_Warmer said: It's not that. Just massive changes over SE Canada in the mid levels. Like pretty amazing how big for 5 days out. Yeah that is a pretty big change in one run, even for this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 It is the 6z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: NS energy is not as sharp/further east/out ahead of the SS short wave. No real interaction(phase) and the timing is such that it suppresses it. People (not you because I know you are fully aware of this) are getting too hung up in the GFS op runs. The GFS run to run variance on the 500s is running really rough at this point. Though not great they should probably be concentrating on the GEFS. It has shown much less run to run volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The latest from LWX: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Very strong high pressure (1040+ mb) builds in from the Arctic across southeastern Canada toward New England Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, amplifying (but narrow) ridge over the Rockies forces downstream height falls as two shortwaves begin to interact crossing the Central Plains states. This will cause low pressure to develop over the Gulf Coast and track east- northeastward. Guidance has been very consistently trending more amplified over the last couple days, so will maintain high end chance PoPs (for snow given cold air in place) Saturday night through Sunday. GFS/GEFS is by far the most aggressive guidance (along with the 0z operational CMC), but ECMWF holding out that an upper low coming ashore of southern CA over the weekend will undercut the ridging over the Rockies, causing less downstream amplification and phasing. Regardless, nearly all guidance including the 0z ECMWF as well as virtually every ensemble member has at least some measurable snowfall, they just differ (and quite significantly) on finer scale details and amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It is the 6z GFS FV3 looks ok so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: FV3 looks ok so far. FV3 is unreliable according to the NWS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: People (not you because I know you are fully aware of this) are getting too hung up in the GFS op runs. The GFS run to run variance on the 500s is running really rough at this point. Though not great they should probably be concentrating on the GEFS. It has shown much less run to run volatility. My concern is the Euro/EPS. Holding steady with the flat, diffuse, strung out look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 27 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah I guess this could be related to the fact that the model is running on its own without anyone monitoring the data as that Washington post article said. So the government has shut down our snow too? Pfffft. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: My concern is the Euro/EPS. Holding steady with the flat, diffuse, strung out look. Think you already know my stance. Been going with the weak, suppressed southern slider ala Euro for awhile now. Just too many concerns at this time with the NS. Could something time up or we see a better 500 setup? Sure, that is why we are seeing some of these great solutions. I just think with what I am seeing that the odds are stacked somewhat heavily against that at this time. I am rooting for you all nonetheless. Even if it would cause me great pain to be reading about a foot or more in my BY while I am in Vegas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: My concern is the Euro/EPS. Holding steady with the flat, diffuse, strung out look. That’s because it’s usually right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 All the maps aren't out yet on the GFS FV3 but I think you will like what it has to show. Not that it is right mind you, but it has better handled and been more consistent with the 500's the last few days then the GFS so it has that going for it. eta: snow maps are out. Though it doesn't show the shellacking from the previous run it does throw generally 7-10 inches through the DC/Balt region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Think you already know my stance. Been going with the weak, suppressed southern slider ala Euro for awhile now. Just too many concerns at this time with the NS. Could something time up or we see a better 500 setup? Sure, that is why we are seeing some of these great solutions. I just think with what I am seeing that the odds are stacked somewhat heavily against that at this time. I am rooting for you all nonetheless. Even if it would cause me great pain to be reading about a foot or more in my BY while I am in Vegas. Think the Euro still makes some changes? Feel like it’s well known biases could still be holding it back from a better solution. That said, I’m guessing you won’t have to worry about a foot, but the answer is a happy medium between the globals. We are far from the end game here (says Captain Obvious). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Think the Euro still makes some changes? Feel like it’s well known biases could still be holding it back from a better solution. That said, I’m guessing you won’t have to worry about a foot, but the answer is a happy medium between the globals. We are far from the end game here (says Captain Obvious). Just haven't liked the timing nor the placement of the NS as the system runs to our south. Though something could time up it is extremely hard to do. More then likely that setup argues for the NS interfering more then anything else. So while I pretty strongly believe this will be a minor event at best I wouldn't be shocked if in fact you all rolled a seven and get hammered. eta: In other words, I would definitely still keep an eye on things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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