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1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

The etiological factors surrounding last winter's macroscale forecasting bust debacle were meteorologically instructive and enlightening from a scientific "edification" standpoint. I have delineated those meteorological factors into a cohesive hypothesis on my website under the verification of last winter's forecast. Forecast model reliability is low at advanced lead times - correct - but this is why long range forecasters are tasked with the ineluctable duty of detaching ourselves from the capricious model data, and predicating thoughts on more authentic/reliable indicators.

Of course, I understand the overall trust in long range forecasters unfortunately took a hit following last winter, but one should not utilize that fail as justification to further doubt prospective prognostication. Forecasting is a probabilistic endeavor; the probability of failing next winter, after a fail the previous winter does not increase/become cumulative - they are mutually exclusive events. In a vacuum, the probability remains the same, but I'd argue that those long range forecasters who take the time to delve into the literature and sharpen methodologies following catastrophic busts will progressively decrease their probability of failing in the future. I look forward to another winter long range forecast as I have further refined my NAO formula which has already demonstrated excellent success. 

What 'more authentic/reliable indicators' do you have in mind??

If there were any, I suspect that they would be greatly studied and analyzed. Sadly, we have not found any thus far, afaik.

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The current look, featuring cooling in the east based regions of the ENSO with western regions remaining warmer. The PDO is positive with a warm pool south of Alaska, but not to the extent of 2013-14 obviously. A cold pool east of Newfoundland in the Atlantic with warm waters immediately south of Greenland.  

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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I'm not a huge fan of 2013 as an analog. People should go look at how hot June 2013 was in the West - and then it got colder. Kind of the opposite this year. I don't consider 2013-14 a La Nina, but it certainly had a month or two that flirted with La Nina territory, and Nino 3/Nino 1.2 were much colder by now in 2013. Also, 2013 had a relatively high min for sea-ice extent in September, which doesn't look like this year.

HoZ44Ql.png

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                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03JUL2019     21.8-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.7 0.9
 10JUL2019     21.7-0.2     25.9 0.1     27.7 0.4     29.7 0.9
 17JUL2019     21.3-0.3     25.6 0.0     27.4 0.2     29.7 0.9
 24JUL2019     21.1-0.2     25.5 0.0     27.6 0.4     29.8 1.0

Still hanging on to a lot of warmth West. Nino 3.4 will be around 27.65C in July. That is warmer than the July readings for 2017, which had to fall very sharply to become a La Nina.

 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2

July was similar to 2017. To get to a La Nina from a warmer start in July, August will need a sharper drop than in 2017.

 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2

If the -NAO continues in August, that is a strong cold signal in Montana, and a strong warm signal for Texas. Nino 3.4 warmth in August (+0.4 or so against the base CPC uses in July) is a wet signal in the Rockies and a cold signal in the Great Lakes/Midwest. I had the middle of the US cold in August using my Summer analog blend from May, 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015, with both coasts warmer - that doesn't seem crazy. 

Image

Going into winter, it looks like the PDO base state will be pretty positive (+1.0 or so) for March-August, but Nino 1.2 may end up colder than average in October. That's fairly unusually historically and has some implications for what the PDO will do. I think the PDO stays positive, but the core of the warmth in the Gulf of Alaska moves.

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New Canadian Model is in on Tropical Tidbits, but I think something is wrong with the input/output. The site has the entire Northern Hemisphere (save by Alaska) filled with colder than normal waters.

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cansips_ssta_noice_global_9.png.81418d758658ca2789fd0451ee129cff.png

This is way over done isn't it? Cold everywhere? If you look at the month to month progressive for US temps, there is no variation at all between some months. I think the data got messed up somehow. The August part of the forecast looks fine, then it dramatically goes colder. I think it's probably because the subsurface data isn't loading.

Anyway, the subsurface for 100-180W was +0.14 in July. Still fairly similar to 2017. I was playing around with what the CFS was showing on 7/31, and it looked like a blend west based El Ninos and east-based La Ninas / cold Neutrals.

Image

 

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11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

cansips_ssta_noice_global_9.png.81418d758658ca2789fd0451ee129cff.png

This is way over done isn't it? Cold everywhere? If you look at the month to month progressive for US temps, there is no variation at all between some months. I think the data got messed up somehow. The August part of the forecast looks fine, then it dramatically goes colder. I think it's probably because the subsurface data isn't loading.

Anyway, the subsurface for 100-180W was +0.14 in July. Still fairly similar to 2017. I was playing around with what the CFS was showing on 7/31, and it looked like a blend west based El Ninos and east-based La Ninas / cold Neutrals.

Image

 

I'd be shocked if the ocean temps came anywhere close to verifying. 

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The subsurface data looks like it will shift above the 2017 baseline now. At this point in 2017, warmth in Nino 3.4 was rapidly fading as cold emerged from below the surface. Things look pretty different in at least the western part of Nino 3.4 this year so far. That blob of warmth by 160W is pretty deep now. There is a fair amount of cold to surface east of 120W which will keep Nino 1.2 and Nino 3 cool for a while.

Image

I'm on board with very slow cooling through Fall in Nino 3.4.

Image

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On 7/27/2019 at 11:04 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't deserve any credit - I repeat ...no credit.

Mainly... because I did not cobble together a seasonal forecast late last summer/autumn.   What I did instead ... was drive-by snark post pot-shots at other's gallant, back-of hand pressed to forehead over glazed eye efforts.  I mean... veritable Master's caliber dissertations, replete with advanced word processing and state of the art graphical annotations... and me, blithely and assholier than thouly reducing them in two flippant sentences.  Nice.  That's the way I roll - 

Kidding... still, I distinctly recall warning contributors often enough, that gradient saturation, a paradigm shift that has occurred since ~ 2000 and continues to become more destructively interfering as the decades click away ... is muddling the climatology of longer termed multi-seasonal teleconnector packages.  The ENSO relative numbers and how they have come to correlate ( hypothetical/supposition ) in the past,  .... don't work. They didn't work in the powerhouse mega ENSO ( warm phase ) several years ago; and in fact, ...papers were submitted and peer reviewed successfully noting the startling lack of correlative impacts Globally by one of ...if not the, hot ENSO events ever recorded.  ...etc...etc... It becomes less likely ( intuitively..) that minoring standard deviation events could impact the circulation of the Global very meaningful, when the massive momentum contributors, could not.  ( I have physical hypothesis why that is, too )

I for one am frustrated by GW/climate change...and the continued reticence to even acknowledge that we are living in times that are increasingly rendering all heretofore correlative expectation-sciences ...  less than germane. 

Perhaps not entirely ... please don't read this as absolute.   As we know ... the gears of the environment are lubed by balancing forces ...So...threshold and partials are in play at all times...such that result sets both do and do not represent suggestively... At times, demonstratively so, at others...seeming to have returned to the prior expectation...and so on and so forth.  But, given the longer time spans...eventually the new paradigm does take over - we're not there yet... But, I do believe that veracious attempts, from the ranks of aficionados that are fortunate enough to have been born and live in an era that provides them any sort of pulpit at all... ( where social media's "peer review" process is tantamount to popularity politics ), to the exulted societal offices of the science... I'm sensing we are all being bamboozled by our own lack of consideration to the changing paradigm that for some reason... no one considers when they engineer their expectations.

So how do we do it?    Don't...   It's irrelevant.  I know it's an interest area... but the sad reality we've come to is that party favor seasonal outlooks are a distraction to the real dystopian storm on the horizon.   In 50 years... approximately mid way through the big kill-off ... is this going to matter?   ( more snark relax...but, ) if we turn to examining seasonal variance as it relates and is pertinent to the Global crisis...that has some substantive value in it.  

But hell... this is an open forum to the public hoi polloi...and that's not hand-cuffing students to their desks... it's an entertainment/hobby past-time .... and entertainment and responsibility ... mm, usually part company.

 

 

Yea, I remember you posting about that. May very well hold some weight.

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On 7/28/2019 at 9:16 PM, raindancewx said:

I'm not a huge fan of 2013 as an analog. People should go look at how hot June 2013 was in the West - and then it got colder. Kind of the opposite this year. I don't consider 2013-14 a La Nina, but it certainly had a month or two that flirted with La Nina territory, and Nino 3/Nino 1.2 were much colder by now in 2013. Also, 2013 had a relatively high min for sea-ice extent in September, which doesn't look like this year.

HoZ44Ql.png

What are your thoughts on 1969-1970?

Just starting to look at things, and this season catches my eye for some obvious and not so obvious reasons.

Good work last year. I have learned a great deal from your way of looking at things.

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If 1969 is going to be a good analog for the winter, there will be some special things that happen in the Summer. I'm not saying Pass Christian has to deal with another Camille, but I've always taken that event to be triggered by a strong MJO wave, probably stuck in phase 1/2 in August given the cold SE / warm Plains & West August look that year which is identical to the MJO composites for August. Given that it looks pretty cold in the areas that were pretty hot in August 1969, I'm inclined to think the MJO timing is off from 1969 if nothing else (No MJO data exists before 1974 though). Sometimes the MJO wavelength changes, so it's hard to say what will happen by Fall/Winter.

The six El Ninos with major hurricanes hitting the US all seem to have a common characteristic - slow, but potent MJO progression (1941, 1957, 1965, 1969, 2004, 2018).

I don't have a good read on Fall/Winter yet. If the NAO stays negative into Fall, it starts off as a cold signal in the SW in September, but then migrates to becoming a cold signal for the East (especially the SE in November). I don't have a La Nina or El Nino for winter, I think its a cold Nino 3/1.2, with an average Nino 3.4 and a warm Nino 4. The NAO was pretty negative in May-Aug in 2012 and 2016 though, so it may not mean too much for US cold. My hunch is the winter will be generally warm on a day to day basis, but most places in the US will see 2-3 weeks of near record cold, and end up near to below average against long-term highs. We had a cold June here, which is a strong indicator of a cold winter in the last 100 years (12/19 winters since 1931 below average when June high is 2F or more below 1931-2018 average). There is no period since the 1890s to my knowledge where the Northern Plains and Montana had four severely cold winters in a row - so you have to bet against that since they had three from 2016-2018. The South won't be severely cold without a very positive PDO or very -NAO all winter. The PDO currently looks screwed up again, with a lot of warmth in the Gulf of Alaska (+PDO) but also east of Japan (-PDO). So it is on the NAO probably for the NE.

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ONI fell to +0.5C for MJJ.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
YR   MON  TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 
2018   7   27.42   27.26    0.16
2018   8   26.95   26.91    0.04
2018   9   27.19   26.80    0.39
2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.86
2018  11   27.61   26.75    0.86
2018  12   27.49   26.65    0.84
2019   1   27.21   26.45    0.76
2019   2   27.49   26.66    0.82
2019   3   28.11   27.21    0.90
2019   4   28.46   27.73    0.72
2019   5   28.50   27.85    0.65
2019   6   28.19   27.65    0.54
2019   7   27.70   27.26    0.44

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Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8
2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5

 

+0.44C / 27.70C for July 2019 in Nino 3.4

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Weeklies show more heat decay in Nino 1.2 / 3

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03JUL2019     21.8-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.7 0.9
 10JUL2019     21.7-0.2     25.9 0.1     27.7 0.4     29.7 0.9
 17JUL2019     21.3-0.3     25.6 0.0     27.4 0.2     29.7 0.9
 24JUL2019     21.1-0.2     25.5 0.0     27.6 0.4     29.8 1.0
 31JUL2019     20.6-0.5     25.2-0.2     27.5 0.5     29.8 1.0
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2

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In an SOI sense, May (-7.4), June (-10.0), July (-5.9) is pretty similar to recent years like 1992, 1993, 2002, 2006. A low solar El Nino winter after an El Nino would be very difficult to analog with historical years. 2004, 1987, 2015 all had 50-70 sunspots in July-June on an annualized basis. We'll probably be at...10 or so. Or less. 1930 had 40/month after the weak El Nino of 1929-30. 

  • SOI
  • May
  • Jun
  • Jul
  • Match
  • 2019
  • -7.4
  • -10
  • -5.9
  • 0
  • 2006
  • -7.7
  • -6.7
  • -8.6
  • 6.3
  • 1946
  • -10.0
  • -8.8
  • -9.5
  • 7.4
  • 1949
  • -4.8
  • -10.9
  • -1.6
  • 7.8
  • 1993
  • -7.3
  • -14.4
  • -10.1
  • 8.7
  • 1992
  • 0.4
  • -11.9
  • -6.5
  • 10.3
  • 2002
  • -13.8
  • -6.8
  • -7.1
  • 10.8

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New IRI/CPC ENSO probabilities have been posted:

figure1.png

El Nino has ended:

EBdJFpuWkAEtnR5.png:large

Here is what the July SST's looked like:

aWM7TFmyAF.png.cb6cc4c2290b83c164a2a8a2ef3bdd5f.png

 The July AMO value finished at 0.350,  up from 0.171 in June and the most positive AMO value since Dec 2017.

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Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

It looks to me like the warm waters 140W-170W are going to remain and get reinforced, while the cold waters 120W and east are also going to get reinforced. Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. So..Neutral into Fall at least?

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Almost all the European plumes have joined the Neutral train. The model had the right idea for the El Nino last August for reference.

Image

Nino 1.2 is forecast to remain quite cold for the foreseeable future - with Nino 3 maybe dropping negative, than warming slightly positive. Nino 4 is forecast to remain positive throughout the foreseeable future.

ps2png-gorax-green-001-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-0sSGpW.png

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My hunch is the Nino 1.2 / Nino 3 coolness will keep the PDO from maintaining that big blob of warmth off the coast of Alaska. The NAO is still negative, and should finish August negative. The very warm AMO / cold East warm West tropical Pacific is relatively similar to 2012, but with a few major differences. Big persistent -NAO in these months of 2012 too. A warmed up 2012 in the tropical Pacific, after an El Nino, with lower solar is probably a colder, wetter winter than 2012-13 nationally, but we'll see. I want to see how August plays out locally, not a lot of Summers following an El Nino winter that go cold June before warming up late. Monsoon has been weak/erratic so far, which is atypical with a positive PDO/low solar, but consistent following a wet cold/winter in the Southwest - will be interesting to see how we finish for Summer rains.

 

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1993-94 anyone? The ONI progression looks similar to what we could see this winter. Perhaps this winter is a touch warmer. Lets say we throw in 1993-94 for a similar west based warmish Neutral regime with its warm PDO and a cool 1+2, 2013-14 for its warm blob south of Alaska (I'm not sold on that blob going away just yet. 2013-14 had a cool Neutral/weak Nina), and 2005 just for its warmer and positive Atlantic/AMO.

9rucfbtocY.png.82bac679b9a814c247d488ac0bdab9f9.png

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I asked one of the Jamstec researchers on Twitter to update the EMI (El Nino Modoki Index) data - it hasn't been updated since November for the monthly data.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 17JUL2019     21.3-0.3     25.6 0.0     27.4 0.2     29.7 0.9
 24JUL2019     21.1-0.2     25.5 0.0     27.6 0.4     29.8 1.0
 31JUL2019     20.6-0.5     25.2-0.2     27.5 0.5     29.8 1.0
 07AUG2019     20.3-0.6     25.3 0.1     27.3 0.4     29.6 0.9
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1

Nino zones still aren't dramatically different in the East from 2017, but the western zones were far colder by this point in 2017. Will be hard for a La Nina to form if Nino 3.4 / 4 stay pretty warm for much longer. I was looking through the DJF data earlier - I think Nino 4 could end up around 28.70C (colder than last year, well above average though), with Nino 1.2 around 24.00C (cooler than average and last year). I wanted to see if that was a record temperature disparity between the two zones during winter. It is not, but it isn't far off from the spread in 1953-54, which is the record, when you had a very cold Nino 1.2 (23.25C) and a warm Nino 4 (28.37C). Nino 4 is a fairly strong wet signal for the West when it is warm.

The subsurface stuff has a different scale now? The subsurface almost looks like a "warm-Neutral" Modoki. Will be curious to see what the Jamstec has this month.

 Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Pending August, a blend of 1995-96 (x2), 2004-05, 2009-10 (x3), 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17, 2018-19 looks somewhat like the ocean pattern I expect for winter, while also matching my monthly Summer highs and monthly Summer precipitation. As a blend, Nino 3.4 would be +0.3C v. 1951-2010 (26.8C), with a warmer Nino 4 and much colder Nino 1.2 and Nino 3. As a blend, it is a weakly positive PDO (which I like if Nino 1.2 stays cold), with a warm Atlantic and low solar. Will continue to revise and test analogs as Summer data comes in. As a blend, those year follow a 26.95C or so Nino 3.4 winter, and 2018-19 was 27.39C.

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I actually have thought that the weather has been pretty damn active this summer, especially across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic in terms of severe weather and hot temperatures.  I mean Cape Cod got three tornado touchdowns from a strong to intense EF-1 tornadoes.  110mph was the strongest winds the NWS survey team found.

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13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I asked one of the Jamstec researchers on Twitter to update the EMI (El Nino Modoki Index) data - it hasn't been updated since November for the monthly data.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 17JUL2019     21.3-0.3     25.6 0.0     27.4 0.2     29.7 0.9
 24JUL2019     21.1-0.2     25.5 0.0     27.6 0.4     29.8 1.0
 31JUL2019     20.6-0.5     25.2-0.2     27.5 0.5     29.8 1.0
 07AUG2019     20.3-0.6     25.3 0.1     27.3 0.4     29.6 0.9
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1

Nino zones still aren't dramatically different in the East from 2017, but the western zones were far colder by this point in 2017. Will be hard for a La Nina to form if Nino 3.4 / 4 stay pretty warm for much longer. I was looking through the DJF data earlier - I think Nino 4 could end up around 28.70C (colder than last year, well above average though), with Nino 1.2 around 24.00C (cooler than average and last year). I wanted to see if that was a record temperature disparity between the two zones during winter. It is not, but it isn't far off from the spread in 1953-54, which is the record, when you had a very cold Nino 1.2 (23.25C) and a warm Nino 4 (28.37C). Nino 4 is a fairly strong wet signal for the West when it is warm.

The subsurface stuff has a different scale now? The subsurface almost looks like a "warm-Neutral" Modoki. Will be curious to see what the Jamstec has this month.

 Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Pending August, a blend of 1995-96 (x2), 2004-05, 2009-10 (x3), 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17, 2018-19 looks somewhat like the ocean pattern I expect for winter, while also matching my monthly Summer highs and monthly Summer precipitation. As a blend, Nino 3.4 would be +0.3C v. 1951-2010 (26.8C), with a warmer Nino 4 and much colder Nino 1.2 and Nino 3. As a blend, it is a weakly positive PDO (which I like if Nino 1.2 stays cold), with a warm Atlantic and low solar. Will continue to revise and test analogs as Summer data comes in. As a blend, those year follow a 26.95C or so Nino 3.4 winter, and 2018-19 was 27.39C.

Lol SNE would take that blend.

We'll see what happens....still so early.

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