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On 1/6/2019 at 3:58 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mixed results in this area on second year el ninos...87-88 was meh, but 77-78 was great.

This is true.

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You all should sneak away from your locations and find a way to go white water rafting on the Rio Grande River this year - conditions are amazing. Beautiful, cold level four rapids to cool you off from the dry 90 degree air.

Anyway, my hunch is that the remaining warm pool and the incoming cool pool, at least for the short term, will lead to some, but not dramatic cooling. We'll see. They effectively look evenly matched for now.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

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                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05JUN2019     22.9-0.4     27.2 0.6     28.6 0.9     29.9 1.1
 12JUN2019     23.1 0.1     26.9 0.4     28.4 0.7     29.8 1.0
 19JUN2019     22.4-0.3     26.5 0.2     28.1 0.5     29.6 0.8
 26JUN2019     22.1-0.3     26.5 0.4     27.8 0.3     29.0 0.2
 03JUL2019     21.8-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.7 0.9

Heat is draining West in the Nino zones? On the subsurface data, the weekly value is still neutral. In 2016, Nino 3.4 was already in La Nina territory by this point, with Nino 1.2 quite warm still.

Some very early ideas for winter - will change several times by October 10

- AMO and PDO both more positive than last year.

- Eastern Tropical Pacific colder than Western Tropical Pacific. 

- Low Solar - how low is an open question. 

- If the -NAO lasts all of July, that is a fairly strong cold signal for the East in December.

- Cold Junes highs are much more likely than other Junes to be followed by cold winter highs in the Southwest. In Albuquerque, 12/19 winters are 2F or more below the 100-year average high after a June that is cold. This is offset this year by the tendency for winters to be warm here a year after an El Nino. 

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I'm not around much on here anymore but good stuff, as always, raindance. I always enjoy the way you think and connect things.

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The subsurface for June 2019 was +0.24. For 1979-2018, that typically meant Neutral in winter, but you can see a few La Nina and El Ninos - weak - in there too. Subsurface becomes a much better indicator in September, the r-squared approaches 0.75. June 2017 subsurface was almost identical to this year, but followed a La Nina. Last year, June was +0.86.D_AYxOBVUAAHWuK.png

100-180W Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
1979 0.39 0.97 0.31 -0.21 0.06 0.35 0.19 0.49 0.91 0.63 1.06 0.92
1980 0.83 0.62 0.50 0.82 1.14 1.17 0.27 0.04 -0.26 0.02 0.35 0.61
1981 0.36 0.30 1.02 0.77 0.24 -0.22 -0.66 -0.59 0.14 0.25 0.02 -0.22
1982 0.21 0.56 0.92 0.93 0.96 1.01 1.11 1.61 1.86 2.07 1.92 1.45
1983 0.05 -0.81 -0.95 0.23 -0.32 -1.12 -1.51 -1.66 -2.15 -2.25 -1.81 -1.36
1984 -0.87 -0.90 -0.92 -0.77 -1.11 -1.15 -0.25 -0.22 -0.37 -0.93 -0.63 -0.35
1985 -0.16 -0.34 -0.65 -0.24 0.09 -0.02 -0.08 0.24 -0.20 -0.26 0.11 0.27
1986 0.21 0.41 0.46 -0.02 0.31 0.80 0.45 0.50 0.65 0.95 0.52 0.97
1987 1.22 0.17 0.60 0.31 0.58 0.37 -0.10 0.20 -0.25 -0.17 -0.37 -0.67
1988 -0.45 -0.88 -1.31 -1.76 -1.55 -1.22 -0.87 -0.72 -1.07 -2.01 -2.04 -1.65
1989 -0.89 -0.11 0.42 0.50 0.61 0.87 0.78 0.35 0.26 -0.02 -0.22 0.64
1990 0.78 1.08 1.14 0.65 0.05 -0.30 0.27 0.46 0.25 0.50 0.38 0.88
1991 0.92 0.29 0.18 0.80 0.76 0.77 0.73 0.49 0.60 1.41 1.22 1.71
1992 1.57 1.98 0.83 0.38 -0.32 -0.78 -0.73 -0.73 -0.56 -0.50 -0.27 0.19
1993 0.27 0.28 0.56 0.81 0.42 -0.29 -0.40 -0.38 0.12 0.10 0.02 -0.33
1994 -0.62 -0.60 -0.40 -0.14 0.16 0.14 0.02 0.67 0.70 1.12 1.16 0.80
1995 0.51 0.13 -0.44 -0.60 -0.44 -0.14 -0.44 -0.84 -1.20 -1.03 -0.86 -0.84
1996 -0.29 -0.12 0.05 0.01 -0.16 0.17 -0.18 -0.35 -0.46 -0.30 -0.47 -0.30
1997 0.56 1.00 1.17 2.17 2.01 2.25 1.83 1.79 2.38 2.56 2.30 1.02
1998 0.00 -0.38 -0.61 -1.06 -1.75 -2.16 -2.29 -2.46 -2.15 -2.35 -2.33 -2.18
1999 -1.80 -1.61 -0.99 -0.91 -0.81 -0.52 -0.64 -1.21 -1.27 -1.07 -1.48 -1.55
2000 -1.28 -0.91 -0.64 -0.31 -0.18 0.08 0.03 0.00 -0.12 -0.37 -0.67 -0.96
2001 -0.56 -0.63 -0.29 0.26 0.11 0.46 0.61 0.12 0.35 0.28 0.22 0.17
2002 0.95 0.78 0.55 0.32 0.07 0.67 0.73 1.05 1.41 1.72 1.58 0.74
2003 0.27 -0.11 -0.06 -0.49 -0.85 0.13 0.53 0.03 0.10 0.34 0.54 0.17
2004 0.05 0.19 -0.10 0.21 0.30 0.04 0.83 0.78 0.87 0.61 0.78 0.79
2005 0.52 0.59 1.27 0.49 0.00 0.11 -0.20 -0.42 -0.33 -0.14 -0.57 -0.74
2006 -0.97 -0.92 -0.29 0.42 0.54 0.76 0.73 1.05 1.13 0.80 1.35 0.86
2007 -0.46 -0.77 -0.72 -0.59 -0.58 -0.18 -0.48 -0.68 -1.03 -1.19 -1.19 -1.08
2008 -1.50 -1.20 -0.45 0.02 0.17 0.38 0.42 -0.15 -0.69 -0.48 -0.77 -1.44
2009 -1.08 -0.50 0.08 0.65 0.87 1.13 1.05 0.79 0.76 1.04 1.75 1.36
2010 1.14 1.24 0.97 -0.06 -1.00 -1.34 -1.36 -1.74 -1.93 -1.92 -1.64 -1.56
2011 -1.27 -0.22 0.50 0.58 0.47 0.39 0.06 -0.54 -1.01 -1.26 -0.92 -1.07
2012 -1.17 -0.46 0.00 0.27 0.47 0.56 0.82 0.83 0.36 0.40 0.34 -0.27
2013 -0.59 -0.17 0.06 -0.06 -0.14 0.26 0.41 0.32 0.38 0.15 0.62 0.26
2014 -0.33 0.39 1.60 1.41 0.95 0.27 -0.18 0.39 0.64 0.53 0.90 0.54
2015 0.15 0.83 1.52 1.74 1.53 1.51 1.69 1.97 1.80 1.91 1.78 1.20
2016 1.25 0.56 -0.31 -0.88 -1.15 -1.05 -0.76 -0.71 -0.71 -0.92 -0.62 -0.24
2017 0.01 0.15 0.22 0.06 0.30 0.22 0.16 -0.40 -0.79 -0.97 -0.84 -0.75
2018 -0.16 -0.11 0.51 0.80 0.88 0.86 0.81 0.81 1.12 1.59 1.36 1.06
2019 0.59 0.94 1.19 0.41 0.07 0.24            
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European has abandoned El Nino chances for winter.

D_JqT10UEAEA3pR.png

D_Jq3UVU0AE7nbR.png

My personal, totally subjective odds are at 65% Neutral, 30% La Nina, 5% El Nino at this point. The subsurface, if you look back at July 2017 on the animations I post, is simultaneously warmer and cooler than July 2019. Nino 3 is already in La Nina territory this July on Tropical Tidbits, but Nino 3.4 is still warm in the western areas - I think that general look will hold for a while. You can think of it as an "east-based" cold Neutral? That's what I like for winter. Don't see the heat in Nino 4 going anywhere soon, and it should hold up Nino 3.4. A Neutral or La Nina winter, after an El Nino, with low-solar conditions and the east (Nino 1.2/3) colder than the west (Nino 3.4/4) is a pretty interesting winter. Low-solar, non-El Nino winters, after an El Nino include 1931, 1942, 1952, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016. Winters a year after an El Nino tend to be titled toward warmth and wetness.  Part of why I'm skeptical of a La Nina for this winter is how positive the PDO has become since April - very different from 2017 which had a similar subsurface and Nino 3.4 SST reading in June.

 D_Jt9GMU0AA64V6.png

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The new Jamstec has a flat-Neutral winter now, with the eastern zones pretty cold. It has the SW cold, US warm. It looks a bit like a blend of 1931, 1987, 2004, 2004, 2016, 2017, 2017 for the oceans and US (a small pool of near average to slightly cool in the SW with a warm US). Something relevant will change by October, but low-solar Neutrals actually are pretty cold in the SW typically. Worth noting: in 2017, it didn't see a La Nina until September 2017. The July forecast is actually pretty close to the May forecast though, unlike in 2017, when the Spring outlook consistently had a moderate El Nino.

The model also has a very hot Fall nationally - hottest Fall forecast I've seen from it actually.

D_Qa3OMVUAACXCl.png

D_QZuSQUwAAyfQD.png

D_QaBkeUYAA4yNm.png

 

 

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                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05JUN2019     22.9-0.4     27.2 0.6     28.6 0.9     29.9 1.1
 12JUN2019     23.1 0.1     26.9 0.4     28.4 0.7     29.8 1.0
 19JUN2019     22.4-0.3     26.5 0.2     28.1 0.5     29.6 0.8
 26JUN2019     22.1-0.3     26.5 0.4     27.8 0.3     29.0 0.2
 03JUL2019     21.8-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.7 0.9
 10JUL2019     21.7-0.2     25.9 0.1     27.7 0.4     29.7 0.9
 07JUN2017     23.1-0.1     26.9 0.3     28.1 0.4     29.3 0.5
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
 28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
 08JUN2016     23.7 0.6     26.6 0.0     27.8 0.1     29.5 0.6
 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3

D_jdJvDUIAAjrdi.png

D_jbF3lUIAAbyQG.png

Nino 3.4 is around 28.2C this May-July, v. 27.6C last May-July - favoring a wetter far southern US. Not much signal for winter from the -NAO in May-July.

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In La Nina winters, the Atlantic ACE index is one of the strongest indicators I can find for whether the SW will be hot or not. The years when your deity of choice sends out hurricane after hurricane to ravage the shoreline from coast to coast are absolutely bone dry and severely hot in the SW US. 1933-34 (the epitome of the Dustbowl) and 2005-06, the closest year to the Dustbowl pattern in the last 20 years, both had ACE indexes of over 250 - with record heat and less than a quarter inch of precipitation in Albuquerque. The 2017-18 year was no slouch either, ACE was 225, and we roasted, but the great SOI crash of February 2018 did kind of save that winter from record heat and dryness. Right now, the ACE index is under 5 for the season - http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/   Above 125, all our La Nina winter are warmer than average (49.5F).

xfQioeE.png

 

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My point is that the ACE Index is a pretty good indicator for whether the SW is warm, average or even cool in a La Nina for highs - which gives ideas about the overall setup. Just as with El Ninos, I don't find much (any) correlation between SSTs/ONI/SSTA in Nino 3.4 in winter and highs in the SW. But things that happen coinciding with the ENSO phase do matter quite a bit. As an indicator, ACE actually beats winter or cold season AMO values in La Ninas. 

July still looks like my Summer analogs which assumed the El Nino would last deep into Spring or even Summer -

7wvLVRn.png

The waters by South America are much colder than in 2017 - presumably they'll spread West with time as the last bit of warmth thins out around 170W? The Jamstec has a very cold Nino 1.2/3 in Fall, and then it warms up there as the coldest anomalies shift West.

gbM5bAY.png

nO58EMT.png

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