aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Yeah today's going to be deb day...a few people's tell is so obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Yeah today's going to be deb day...a few people's tell is so obvious. Too much positivity yesterday...bound to have some cliff jumpers today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 27 minutes ago, nj2va said: Too much positivity yesterday...bound to have some cliff jumpers today. We're right in the twiddle our thumbs range because the frontal wave is close enough to want to pay close attention to but still far enough away that ops don't have a lot of skill. Over the weekend many questions should be answered if I had to guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're right in the twiddle our thumbs range because the frontal wave is close enough to want to pay close attention to but still far enough away that ops don't have a lot of skill. Over the weekend many questions should be answered if I had to guess. Totally...these are hard to nail down at this range. But the thread will be dominated by the usual mood swings depending on what the snowmaps look like. At least its something to track is my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Totally...these are hard to nail down at this range. But the thread will be dominated by the usual mood swings depending on what the snowmaps look like. At least its something to track is my opinion. Yea, I'm not going to pick apart op runs 4-5 days out. You end up forgetting what you just talked about 6 hours ago and have brand new stuff to talk about that will be irrelevant in 6 more hours. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I'll not be a deb today. 12z GFS gave my yard a total 2" of snow from 2 different events! And the second one looks like some sort of inverted trough deal. Those always trend better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 How anyone can use the word trend with any model run is beyond me.....but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: How anyone can use the word trend with any model run is beyond me.....but what do I know. I'm tellin ya....what a tough year....and tough crowd to boot. Hoping once the PV gets closer, finer details (and more favorable ones) start to emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 15 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Boy if the pattern gets good I'm sure glad we know where everyone stood the last few days...gonna be fun to go back and read the nervous nellies or the panicky p's and the whiney wusses and those that held steady...you all know who you are I doubt it stays crap all the way. But we are already well into what was supposed to be the good pattern and it’s cutter after cutter after cutter and now the good pattern might be delayed until after Feb 10??? Maybe. I’m lamenting that things got pushed back again and again more than predicting it won’t ever get good. Also have my doubts I can get to climo if we don’t get right until the second week of Feb. You have a much better chance. I have a LONG way to go to just hit climo. I think this year might be my least snow ever at this date since I moved up here in 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 because of the last storm, i'm giving this winter a C grade. even if it doesn't snow the rest of the way, i'd probably leave it there, but yea...minus that storm, this winter has indeed been a letdown so far given the expectations/forecasts. there's no other way to rationalize it. hopefully, we can get another warning level event before the winter is out. it'll be interesting to see where we stand 2-3 weeks from now. on the bright side, since we don't average a ton of snow, it really only takes one big event to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I doubt it stays crap all the way. But we are already well into what was supposed to be the good pattern and it’s cutter after cutter after cutter and now the good pattern might be delayed until after Feb 10??? Maybe. I’m lamenting that things got pushed back again and again more than predicting it won’t ever get good. Also have my doubts I can get to climo if we don’t get right until the second week of Feb. You have a much better chance. I have a LONG way to go to just hit climo. I think this year might be my least snow ever at this date since I moved up here in 2006. I don't know why but my brain didn't get set on the Jan 20th to Feb 1st period as being stellar....could be that I am dense or it could also be that I don't really pay attention to Ji. In the end I'm on the when the pattern changes it changes and if it snows then I'm happy. I'm not a big game hunter or even a climo wanter. I just wish it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I don't why but my brain didn't get set on the Jan 20th to Feb 1st period as being stellar....could be that I am dense or it could also be that I don't really pay attention to Ji. In the end I'm on the when the pattern changes it changes and if it snows then I'm happy. I'm not a big game hunter or even a climo wanter. I just wish it snows That’s healthier. I can tell you my mood turned last week. I was ok with missing out on the snowstorm 2 weeks ago when we had a good pattern in front of us. Then I watched as that pattern degraded quickly from really good to really bad. And when I started seeing some “uh oh” red flags others kind of were in “that’s not too bad we can work with that” mode. But I just knew what I saw and it was a cutter pattern. Seen it way too many times. It looks close enough if you just look at the blues near us on an ensemble mean but it has fatal flaws. I probably should have just shut up and let people believe what they wanted to believe. But the combo of this year having been a complete dumpster fire here (literally my worst year so far at this point) and the pattern evaporating last week soured me fast. But I can understand why my mood isnt shared. If I had 10” last week from that storm I probably would be totally fine right now and patient to let it play out and see if we get a good period in Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I haven't even paid attention to weather models this year, let my wxbell subscription lapse, and have mostly given up tracking. I'll toss up TT every now and then to catch a recent GFS run. And I can tell you I've been much happier this winter about weather, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Happy 19th anniversary of the January 25, 2000 snowstorm surprise! https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Blizzard the crazy part is if that low moved slower (it kinda zoomed almost due north up the coast), it may have been one of the greatest snowstorms of all time. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2000&month=1&day=24&hour=0&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Government shutdown is over! Now someone start loading data into Grandpa GFS ASAP. We need some good ol fashioned American snow storms!! Eta: Well until Feb. 15 potentially anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Where's leesburg when we need him with that beating the dead horse picture? Yeesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 It's just snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 People on here won't let you forget nothin'....I relented on my previous position of not being impressed with the mid-week storm, and was ready to let it go...until SOMEBODY decided to stir it up again. What, am I supposed to not respond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Easternuswx and americanwx....Americas psychiatric couch for whiners, moaners and venters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 We've lost the good solid middle ground posters in this forum. It's either those who are outstanding or those you are horrible and the horrible ones are increasing in size rapidly. I'd like to know how some of these people have spent hours on a daily basis over the course of years on this board and not learn a damn thing considering they have some great weather minds at their service. Unbelievable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, HighStakes said: We've lost the good solid middle ground posters in this forum. It's either those who are outstanding or those you are horrible and the horrible ones are increasing in size rapidly. I'd like to know how some of these people have spent hours on a daily basis over the course of years on this board and not learn a damn thing considering they have some great weather minds at their service. Unbelievable. It’s all that guys leesburg04’s fault...he made cookies, burned them, and everything has gone to hell since. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: It’s all that guys leesburg04’s fault...he made cookies, burned them, and everything has gone to hell since. I can't bake...I can't get no dates and I can't get no snow...I want my mommy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: It’s all that guys leesburg04’s fault...he made cookies, burned them, and everything has gone to hell since. Don't forget that in a pinch he'll eat deodorant... yea, my memory is that good leesburg40oz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Don't forget that in a pinch he'll eat deodorant... yea, my memory is that good leesburg40oz Orange tic tac deodorant!! 40oz lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Charlottesville snow hole is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Charlottesville snow hole is real I’m starting to think its the NA101 snow hole. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Those from outside our region are welcome in our threads, but how about keeping your thoughts private. How many times do we need to hear how bad it is for Richmond and places above the Mason Dixon line? We are not complaining about Leesburgh 04's burnt cookies in their threads... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Why are NOAA sites still down when the shutdown ended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Easternuswx and americanwx....Americas psychiatric couch for whiners, moaners and venters Man, my experience last last year was so weird. I swear I'm sane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 56 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: Those from outside our region are welcome in our threads, but how about keeping your thoughts private. How many times do we need to hear how bad it is for Richmond and places above the Mason Dixon line? We are not complaining about Leesburgh 04's burnt cookies in their threads... Yea, i don't mind tourism at all. Especially when the tourists post value and add to the discussion. This year has been a little weird. Not much value adding and a whole lot of banter in non banter threads. We REALLY don't need any more than what the locals already provide. And I could care less about snow outside of our sub. Just being honest. Regional subs were created for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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