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George BM

January Banter 2019

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe. Last time the tpv retrograded into western Canada and AK we started this way too. Maybe it’s transient. That could evolve to a better look. Then it locked in and we wasted a month. I’m not convinced that happens but concerned a little yes 

I made a silent promise to myself that if anything deviates from the weeklies that I would stop caring about anything beyond 10 days. It's been a terrible year for long range ensembles. Anything that shows up in the d10-16 range is no longer worth analyzing. If the retro tpv shows up inside of d7 I'll take it more seriously. Right now idgaf. I really don't. Not just saying it.

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Everyone is entitled to feel how they feel you won't get any argument from me but I will say there is a limit on how many times you say the same thing. I have zero skill but I've lived here a long time and I pay close attention to a lot of things. My opinion of this winter is mine and mine alone. I hope it snows.

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Everyone is entitled to feel how they feel you won't get any argument from me but I will say there is a limit on how many times you say the same thing. I have zero skill but I've lived here a long time and I pay close attention to a lot of things. My opinion of this winter is mine and mine alone. I hope it snows.

We got a foot of snow from a d15 crap pattern full of rain and warmth. Maybe we got it all backwards. We should start rooting for d15 crap patterns.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

We got a foot of snow from a d15 crap pattern full of rain and warmth. Maybe we got it all backwards. We should start rooting for d15 crap patterns.

If weather is anything it's humbling. I will say with all sincerity that I admire how you and others have developed the skills to read and interpret the weather patterns. I know its not easy but you guys have dedicated yourselves to it...its fun to read the analysis...I'm here everyday digesting...but as observed...I'm skeptical by nature. I hope nobody takes it personally...its just weather and I don't think I'm mean spirited...asshole maybe...but not mean spirited. I hope it snows

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

If weather is anything it's humbling. I will say with all sincerity that I admire how you and others have developed the skills to read and interpret the weather patterns. I know its not easy but you guys have dedicated yourselves to it...its fun to read the analysis...I'm here everyday digesting...but as observed...I'm skeptical by nature. I hope nobody takes it personally...its just weather and I don't think I'm mean spirited...asshole maybe...but not mean spirited. I hope it snows

I enjoy your commentary/posts. But then again I am an a**hole as well so I get your humor. :D

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18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Your shortest post ever. :P:hurrbear:

 

I’m glad some of you can take this sh!tshow in stride. Keeps it fun as most of us are just doing this for that very reason.

For those who do get paid, god love ya. You earn it no matter what 80% of the public thinks about you. :P

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Scraff @nj2va

6th straight loss for the Caps upcoming tonight to the Sharks?

lol, didn't the Penguins spend a good amount of the season in the basement of the Eastern Conference?  Welcome to hockey, where all teams go through highs and lows.  Caps went through a similar low this time last season and lost to the Pens in the playoffs well, we know what happened the rest of the season.

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

lol, didn't the Penguins spend a good amount of the season in the basement of the Eastern Conference?  Welcome to hockey, where all teams go through highs and lows.  Caps went through a similar low this time last season and lost to the Pens in the playoffs well, we know what happened the rest of the season.

Indeed they did.  Perhaps you can do what the Penguins did in 16 and 17.  Nah, you know the Penguins will just beat you in the playoffs again this spring lol ;)

Last year was an aberration and the Caps had to win sometime as it was inevitable.  Besides, got to troll the Caps some when my Penguins are on break till next Monday due to the NHLPA rules of a week off either before or after the ASB... and not much to do

 

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1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

If weather is anything it's humbling. I will say with all sincerity that I admire how you and others have developed the skills to read and interpret the weather patterns. I know its not easy but you guys have dedicated yourselves to it...its fun to read the analysis...I'm here everyday digesting...but as observed...I'm skeptical by nature. I hope nobody takes it personally...its just weather and I don't think I'm mean spirited...asshole maybe...but not mean spirited. I hope it snows

I never take offense. I have little skill at predicting super long range patterns and I’ve rarely been confident in an outcome. This year I was but it was false confidence because a couple of the main variables I used to make the assumption were wrong. I greatly miscalculated the enso and mjo. I can admit that. I’m not a blow smoke and try to spin a failed forecast like Cohen and JB do. If I was wrong about how we get there then I was wrong regardless of ground truth outcomes. 

I would much rather be discussing short and medium range discreet events.  Even day 7-10 specific threats are more fun and I can usually get a decent feel for the options and how it might turn out in a general sense.  Details not yet of course.  But we haven’t had many good threats make it into that range the last few years so I’ve been stuck talking about long range ghosts. 

The last two threats I realized I was likely out of the game early on and so it kind of was a buzzkill too. I tried to post some last week and I did try to argue for a more amplified solution for your area. I thought the cips analogs were showing there was more upside than guidance at day 3-4 was giving it and while there was some suppression it wasn’t the total shred factory that would squash such a moist amped system in the Mississippi valley to nothing.  The total weak saice runs never made much sense to me. I’m really glad that worked out for you guys though.  I wish we could have more tracking of threats like that (but maybe 30 miles north next time) in the medium range but absent that I’m left speculating about low probability long range crap.  

 

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Pretty sure models were only built to get the rocks off as temp solution/instant gratification. If you try bank on long term the blues turn into blue balls:gun_bandana:

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3 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Pretty sure models were only built to get the rocks off as temp solution/instant gratification. If you try bank on long term the blues turn into blue balls:gun_bandana:

Ok Chuck

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

@Scraff @nj2va

6th straight loss for the Caps upcoming tonight to the Sharks?

That was a fun 1st period! I feel much better about our game tonight. Best I’ve seen them in like forever. Need the Caps go on and just beat the crap out of the Sharks. I’m thinking 5-2 final. :D

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Mostly a lurker for the last 3 years. A quick (BIG) thank you to all of the regular and knowledgeable posters here (you know who you are). I have learned so much from you all and have become somewhat addicted to this page.

On another note, here's a question that I've been wondering about for some time now.

With the record (and continued) rainfall of 2018, what is it going to take to get the pattern back to something closer to our average precipitation? This may be a complicated answer but I'm all ears and willing to learn.

Thanks for your expertise and input. Greatly appreciated.

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17 minutes ago, Scraff said:

That was a fun 1st period! I feel much better about our game tonight. Best I’ve seen them in like forever. Need the Caps go on and just beat the crap out of the Sharks. I’m thinking 5-2 final. :D

Best their offense has looked in a long time. Much better stick handling and energy too. And they’re shooting the puck! 

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15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Best their offense has looked in a long time. Much better stick handling and energy too. And they’re shooting the puck! 

A night for offense. Goalies GAA are taking a beating tonight.

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27 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Best their offense has looked in a long time. Much better stick handling and energy too. And they’re shooting the puck! 

D has been sloppy, but can’t fix everything in one game I guess. Need an Ovi hattie to put this away in the 3rd period. 

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28 minutes ago, Lucketts said:

A night for offense. Goalies GAA are taking a beating tonight.

 

16 minutes ago, Scraff said:

D has been sloppy, but can’t fix everything in one game I guess. Need an Ovi hattie to put this away in the 3rd period. 

Yeah tonight won’t win awards for best defensive plays of the season.  Another + is the Caps PP is a complete 180 tonight...even this one where they didn’t score, they had multiple good looks.  

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23 minutes ago, Scraff said:

D has been sloppy, but can’t fix everything in one game I guess. Need an Ovi hattie to put this away in the 3rd period. 

Next, tell us when we can expect our next snowstorm.  

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45 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Next, tell us when we can expect our next snowstorm.  

This winter. :lol:

 

Eta: Cancel that. Next winter! What a frickin JI GFS disaster of a Caps collapse. 

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1 hour ago, Scraff said:

D has been sloppy, but can’t fix everything in one game I guess. Need an Ovi hattie to put this away in the 3rd period. 

I can laugh at the Caps loss... but the way it got to OT... brutal

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I can laugh at the Caps loss... but the way it got to OT... brutal

This one is painful. 

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35 minutes ago, frd said:

Wish I were there with proper gear and a GPS

 

Damn man I should undertake a road trip up there from AUS! Hell of a jebwalk once I get up there!

NO, scratch that.

I drive the BUS to DCA. I pick up the entire DC Crew. Then we enjoy an EPIC jebdrive to Colo and we ALL enjoy a jebwalk in the blowing snow! Who's bringing the stout?

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19 minutes ago, Scraff said:

This one is painful. 

Vogel tweeted that this is the first time since the 10-11 season that the Caps have lost 4 straight at home... that's quite impressive 

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