Prestige Worldwide Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Winter cancel now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Ji should be fun today I think your definition of fun and mine differ somewhat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Recancel the cancel that cancelled the uncancel of the recancelled winter of the cancelled NAO winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Pretty much kept my mouth shut the last few days in the long range because we have been burned several times already this year. Glad I did. Of course nothing is set in stone at this point so we could see the models bounce back. And there are some decent looks that are popping up here and there in the extended so I wouldn't dismiss anything. Its pretty clear the PAC is going to have warts. No reason to think that will change going forward considering we don't have a defined Nino and literally no Nino like response from the atmosphere to this point. Doesn't mean it will be constantly hostile either. The fabled NA block sure would help our cause though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 It either will or it won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its pretty clear the PAC is going to have warts. No reason to think that will change going forward considering we don't have a defined Nino and literally no Nino like response from the atmosphere to this point. Doesn't mean it will be constantly hostile either. The fabled NA block sure would help our cause though. At this point I don't think we are ever going to get the PAC right. At least as a somewhat stable feature. As far as the NAO? As I mentioned before I have noticed a tendency over the years of tracking that when WAR sets up early in the year and gets established it is very hard to dislodge. Can't even count the times I watched the models try to shift WAR up into the NAO domain in the extended only shift that back into WAR in the medium and short ranged. What will probably happen, as we have seen several times in the last few years, is that the when the wavelengths change moving into spring is when we finally see the WAR morph into a -NAO. So if I were a betting man I would say we do finally see it towards the end of Feb or into March but at that point we are on borrowed time. Could be another cold and wet Spring incoming if this is the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Is it fair to say if your main focus is to find every negative in each model run that you will in fact find negatives? Asking for a friend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It either will or it won't I'm going with "it won't". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 53 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Is it fair to say if your main focus is to find every negative in each model run that you will in fact find negatives? Asking for a friend Sure. But that isn't the main focus in general. Well unless you are talking about Ji with op runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: At this point I don't think we are ever going to get the PAC right. At least as a somewhat stable feature. As far as the NAO? As I mentioned before I have noticed a tendency over the years of tracking that when WAR sets up early in the year and gets established it is very hard to dislodge. Can't even count the times I watched the models try to shift WAR up into the NAO domain in the extended only shift that back into WAR in the medium and short ranged. What will probably happen, as we have seen several times in the last few years, is that the when the wavelengths change moving into spring is when we finally see the WAR morph into a -NAO. So if I were a betting man I would say we do finally see it towards the end of Feb or into March but at that point we are on borrowed time. Could be another cold and wet Spring incoming if this is the case. How awesome would that be lol. Last ENSO update I looked at a couple weeks ago still had an El Nino watch in effect, with a 65% chance it develops in Spring. Woop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Sure. But that isn't the main focus in general. Well unless you are talking about Ji with op runs. I will say this though...in a winter like this where the head fakes have been constant with the models. I think there is a fine tooth comb going over each run after positive changes happen to find the error or negative change back. It has been a rough winter no doubt for models in the LR...I still enjoy the day to day and the expertise though. Somehow we snow even though the models say no mostly. I guess we hold on tight now until Sprung Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: How awesome would that be lol. Last ENSO update I looked at a couple weeks ago still had an El Nino watch in effect, with a 65% chance it develops in Spring. Woop! The winter of 2019/20 will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 This winter is no longer fun. Let’s just torch the rest of winter and put everyone out their misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Recancel the cancel that cancelled the uncancel of the recancelled winter of the cancelled NAO winter. It's pretty funny how we oscillate more than any index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I will say this though...in a winter like this where the head fakes have been constant with the models. I think there is a fine tooth comb going over each run after positive changes happen to find the error or negative change back. It has been a rough winter no doubt for models in the LR...I still enjoy the day to day and the expertise though. Somehow we snow even though the models say no mostly. I guess we hold on tight now until Sprung Been a really rough winter for me. Always try to stay positive despite what the models may show but this year has been extremely taxing. Can't recall how often we had good to very good looks in the extended to only have the rug pulled out as it neared in time. Can't recall ever having a winter where the models teased us so much. I will keep tracking till the bitter end hoping for a miracle but I admit I am now turning my attention to camping season hoping we get an early and dry Spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: It's pretty funny how we oscillate more than any index What happens when people rip and read each op run and take them to heart, in the extended no less. Cough... Cough.... Ji. Cough... Cough.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: What happens when people rip and read each op run and take them to heart, in the extended no less. Cough... Cough.... Ji. Cough... Cough.... as soon as you said "not much to like about the overnight runs" I felt a tear well up...although still far off I feel like the end of tracking season is edging ever closer..50s/60s next week wont make it feel any better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: What happens when people rip and read each op run and take them to heart, in the extended no less. Cough... Cough.... Ji. Cough... Cough.... Most just want it to snow....some want to know why it will snow...i'm not sure what Ji wants 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 a bevy of happy housewives 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Been a really rough winter for me. Always try to stay positive despite what the models may show but this year has been extremely taxing. Can't recall how often we had good to very good looks in the extended to only have the rug pulled out as it neared in time. Can't recall ever having a winter where the models teased us so much. I will keep tracking till the bitter end hoping for a miracle but I admit I am now turning my attention to camping season hoping we get an early and dry Spring. I try to just go with it. I can say I have enjoyed this winter less than any in recent memory(so far) outside of the total ratter several years ago where the airports recorded less than 2" I believe. The general pattern isn't awful, that's the thing. And the one feature that could get us over the top is also the one that models seem to like to advertise in the LR and it rarely ever comes to fruition. It really is uncanny. My rationale for taking the -NAO seriously this winter was the correlation to a C/E based Nino in late winter. Now that is pretty much out the window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 23 minutes ago, BristowWx said: as soon as you said "not much to like about the overnight runs" I felt a tear well up...although still far off I feel like the end of tracking season is edging ever closer..50s/60s next week wont make it feel any better. Keep kicking the can down the road and eventually the road ends. Pretty soon April will be in range lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 hours ago, showmethesnow said: At this point I don't think we are ever going to get the PAC right. At least as a somewhat stable feature. As far as the NAO? As I mentioned before I have noticed a tendency over the years of tracking that when WAR sets up early in the year and gets established it is very hard to dislodge. Can't even count the times I watched the models try to shift WAR up into the NAO domain in the extended only shift that back into WAR in the medium and short ranged. What will probably happen, as we have seen several times in the last few years, is that the when the wavelengths change moving into spring is when we finally see the WAR morph into a -NAO. So if I were a betting man I would say we do finally see it towards the end of Feb or into March but at that point we are on borrowed time. Could be another cold and wet Spring incoming if this is the case. Exactly right and why it's hard to go against decadal features and tendencies until there is actual evidence of a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Absolutely a worthwhile chase. Good for you. Was watching radar all morning. That's a typical full fetch Lake Effect band off the east end of Ontario. Can't get much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I kinda ended up in a sucker zone...too north and too south by less than 5 miles, but for deep winter appeal and good snow, my goodness. I gotta chase LES more. New England is a dumpster fire for snow this year. It’s a marvel up there. Truly amazing how much snow they get and how well they deal with it. 2’ off east end of Ontario is a walk in the park. Cleared in 12-24 hrs. Back to normal. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I just moved my fantasy banter thoughts over there. Someone needs to make a rule book and a road map to this place nowadays. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Keep kicking the can down the road and eventually the road ends. Pretty soon April will be in range lol. Guidance, both the CFS and Euro weeklies are starting to see the true end around the second week of March and roll the whole pattern over into a spring look. I actually buy that, so there is only so much more can kicking that can go...were down to a 2-3 week window as it is...if the NAO isn't real we likely only have one or two more "tease" runs left before they sniff that out and then its just gone and we go right into spring. Not saying that is how it will go...but either way the teasing will end soon one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 5 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Been a really rough winter for me. Always try to stay positive despite what the models may show but this year has been extremely taxing. Can't recall how often we had good to very good looks in the extended to only have the rug pulled out as it neared in time. Can't recall ever having a winter where the models teased us so much. I will keep tracking till the bitter end hoping for a miracle but I admit I am now turning my attention to camping season hoping we get an early and dry Spring. I didn’t pay as much attention last winter because of family issues, but I feel like we were teased with a lot of fantasy storms also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 50 degree temps sound very good right now. looking forward to the thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: I didn’t pay as much attention last winter because of family issues, but I feel like we were teased with a lot of fantasy storms also. If you love modeled Fantasy storms you would have absolutely loved the GFS just a few years back. You would sneeze and it would throw up a HEC. The storms were a dime a dozen. Fun to look at but nothing to bank on. Think the old GFS is the reason Ji is the way he is to this day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Its interesting to me that the areas that have not necessarily scored well this year tend to have the most disgruntled posters who are generally looking for the end of this winter or are quicker to point out the negatives. It's funny how that works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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