showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, mappy said: not sure my mom uses orange zest. hers are the only ones i have never known lol Grandmother used to make some sugar cookies that were to die for. The secret if I remember correctly was she used a ton of butter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: 12z EPS look substantially worse compared to 0z. Much lower heights in W Canada. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/10-upstate-new-yorkpennsylvania/ Please return there. kthxbai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Grandmother used to make some sugar cookies that were to die for. The secret if I remember correctly was she used a ton of butter. Mine made molasses cookies... I will have to find the recipe for that cause I could eat those all day long 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, yoda said: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/10-upstate-new-yorkpennsylvania/ Please return there. kthxbai yeah, we get it. this is not directed at you, but everyone sees the guy is a pain in the butt. but everyone replying to him and telling him to go away, etc, aren't helping either. there are a few green taggers, with the power to do something, who have seen his posts and even hide them, and he is still around. so besides the constant deb, and posting here instead of the Philly forum... clearly the mods don't think he needs to be "removed". perhaps if we just ignore him... he will disappear on his own? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I've decided I'm going on a weather cleanse for at least the next 48 hours. These forums and models are really getting me down. If there's a legit threat for next week it should be showing up by Thursday night so that's when I'll be back. This is going to be hard to have restraint, but it's for my health LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Taking bets that 18z is the worst run ever and 0z is spectacular and then 6z is the worst run ever then 12z is spectacular..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 5:23 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Today I made brownies. Baking/cooking during winter events has become a household tradition! Thank you @Mrs.J! Awww thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 44 minutes ago, yoda said: Mine made molasses cookies... I will have to find the recipe for that cause I could eat those all day long Mine makes butterscotch cookies. Don't know if she has the recipe written down but those specific butterscotch chips make them especially great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 not that anyone cares but i definitely like splitting the LR thread into LR pattern thread and LR threat thread good suggestion and good follow through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 This cold weather has put me in a comfort food mood. Just made fried potatoes from scratch to go with breaded pork chops tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 this reminds me of a time i was playing taboo and my friend wanted me to guess the words "french fries" so he yelled sticks of starch at me in an absolute fury and i laughed so hard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Winter's over... For me. I'm in Miami enjoying low to mid 70s at the beach although the water is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 hours ago, 87storms said: yea that dry slot was unexpected and pretty annoying. i was right on the edge of the cutoff, so i stayed in the light snow and dendrites for most of it, but i could see where dc would be a frustrating spot. the UL action made up for it here, though. You're probably not all that far from where I am (seeing that you list Bethesda as your location), and I had a similar experience riding the edge of the dry slot. It lightened up for several hours after about 8:30AM, but never completely stopped. I had 17" on the ground around 8AM, then got a couple more during the time it was lighter. The CCB then came through mid afternoon into the evening and hammered us for like 5 hours at ~1"/hr rates on average (I ended up with 24" total; 5" fell in the CCB action). No complaints from me on that storm at all. But it is interesting that barely 10 miles farther up from me in MoCo, they got ~30" or so from reports I saw...they stayed in the heavier stuff for the pretty much the entire day. The bands in the afternoon, once they finally moved in, were quite wicked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 20 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: This cold weather has put me in a comfort food mood. Just made fried potatoes from scratch to go with breaded pork chops tonight. Mmmm, sounds tasty!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 26 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Mine makes butterscotch cookies. Don't know if she has the recipe written down but those specific butterscotch chips make them especially great. I haven’t made butterscotch cookies in a long day. Sounds like a great snow day plan. Just need that snow day... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Probably. Can't really get worked up one way or the other myself with what the models say in the longer ranges. Been tracking for too many years to know that things can go to crap in a heartbeat or even for the better. So I will just take it day by day and see where we go. I am very aware things could flip back on a dime. And I am partially expecting that. Otherwise why do I still track every run. But “the guidance can be wrong” doesn’t leave much to analyze and discuss. It’s crap for tracking. I’m not convinced it won’t improve but I can’t just ignore what looks bad and discuss how I hope the pattern will look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I think staying the course over flipping out over each run whether you are analyzing the individual run or not is the best way to go. When you get jumpy over jumpy model runs you kind of look silly if/when they flip back....but hey to each his/her own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I think staying the course over flipping out over each run whether you are analyzing the individual run or not is the best way to go. When you get jumpy over jumpy model runs you kind of look silly if/when they flip back....but hey to each his/her own I'm now fully onboard and hugging the L4FS model (leesburg04 forecast system). I have a nice back yard will big windows facing it. For the rest of the winter I'm going to stick to short and mid range and if it snows i have a front row seat to enjoy. I'm taking some comfort with the fact that the gefs, eps, weeklies, and cfs have been flat wrong in the long range. Based on that record, the coming weeks are probably going to be the best we've seen all season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I think staying the course over flipping out over each run whether you are analyzing the individual run or not is the best way to go. When you get jumpy over jumpy model runs you kind of look silly if/when they flip back....but hey to each his/her own I didn’t flip over one run. I started feeling this way a few days ago. First it was “hmm what’s that” and “it’s just one run” then became “ok not good but let’s give it the weekend probably just a hiccup” then after several days of a progression I don’t like only trending worse, sorry but I decided it was time to stop pretending everything looked fine. The best counter argument to my analysis of where were at is “hey maybe guidance is wrong”. Yea maybe it is. I hope so! But that’s supposed to be the basis of my expectations? You know I’m not inherently negative. When it looks good I don’t hesitate to say so. But what am I supposed to say when it doesn’t? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 @leesburg 04 @Bob Chill @C.A.P.E. @showmethesnow Also I think part of what I was doing in voicing my concerns at what I’m seeing was I truly wanted someone to chime in with reasons I’m missing something and make the counter argument to my fears in what I’m seeing. The fact that the best anyone has done is “maybe it’s wrong” isn’t that comforting. I guess I was hoping I was missing something and others would point it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: @leesburg 04 @Bob Chill @C.A.P.E. @showmethesnow Also I think part of what I was doing in voicing my concerns at what I’m seeing was I truly wanted someone to chime in with reasons I’m missing something and make the counter argument to my fears in what I’m seeing. The fact that the best anyone has done is “maybe it’s wrong” isn’t that comforting. I guess I was hoping I was missing something and others would point it out. I've had concerns since day 1 of met winter. We prob have a good shot at winter wx the next 10 days. I've reached max density talking about 2+ week leads. Give it 5 days and your current concerns will be replaced with brand new unforseen concerns. Then just give it another 5 days and.... you know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've had concerns since day 1 of met winter. We prob have a good shot at winter wx the next 10 days. I've reached max density talking about 2+ week leads. Give it 5 days and your current concerns will be replaced with brand new unforseen concerns. Then just give it another 5 days and.... you know Maybe. Last time the tpv retrograded into western Canada and AK we started this way too. Maybe it’s transient. That could evolve to a better look. Then it locked in and we wasted a month. I’m not convinced that happens but concerned a little yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @leesburg 04 @Bob Chill @C.A.P.E. @showmethesnow Also I think part of what I was doing in voicing my concerns at what I’m seeing was I truly wanted someone to chime in with reasons I’m missing something and make the counter argument to my fears in what I’m seeing. The fact that the best anyone has done is “maybe it’s wrong” isn’t that comforting. I guess I was hoping I was missing something and others would point it out. I wish I could give you a counter argument. I can't. That Goldilocks pattern we were staring at a couple of weeks ago is gone for the time being. Maybe it pops up in future runs, maybe not. Doesn't mean we are SOL because I do still see potential when the PAC degrades. I also see some pretty good indications we get the PAC back after a short breakdown as to hopefully we once again begin seeing that Goldilocks pattern. And I wasn't knocking you on my previous comment. Was just stating that I will accept whatever comes and live with it. Life is just too short to stress out over model runs that flip on a dime far to often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe. Last time the tpv retrograded into western Canada and AK we started this way too. Maybe it’s transient. That could evolve to a better look. Then it locked in and we wasted a month. I’m not convinced that happens but concerned a little yes I made a silent promise to myself that if anything deviates from the weeklies that I would stop caring about anything beyond 10 days. It's been a terrible year for long range ensembles. Anything that shows up in the d10-16 range is no longer worth analyzing. If the retro tpv shows up inside of d7 I'll take it more seriously. Right now idgaf. I really don't. Not just saying it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Everyone is entitled to feel how they feel you won't get any argument from me but I will say there is a limit on how many times you say the same thing. I have zero skill but I've lived here a long time and I pay close attention to a lot of things. My opinion of this winter is mine and mine alone. I hope it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Everyone is entitled to feel how they feel you won't get any argument from me but I will say there is a limit on how many times you say the same thing. I have zero skill but I've lived here a long time and I pay close attention to a lot of things. My opinion of this winter is mine and mine alone. I hope it snows. We got a foot of snow from a d15 crap pattern full of rain and warmth. Maybe we got it all backwards. We should start rooting for d15 crap patterns. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: We got a foot of snow from a d15 crap pattern full of rain and warmth. Maybe we got it all backwards. We should start rooting for d15 crap patterns. If weather is anything it's humbling. I will say with all sincerity that I admire how you and others have developed the skills to read and interpret the weather patterns. I know its not easy but you guys have dedicated yourselves to it...its fun to read the analysis...I'm here everyday digesting...but as observed...I'm skeptical by nature. I hope nobody takes it personally...its just weather and I don't think I'm mean spirited...asshole maybe...but not mean spirited. I hope it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: If weather is anything it's humbling. I will say with all sincerity that I admire how you and others have developed the skills to read and interpret the weather patterns. I know its not easy but you guys have dedicated yourselves to it...its fun to read the analysis...I'm here everyday digesting...but as observed...I'm skeptical by nature. I hope nobody takes it personally...its just weather and I don't think I'm mean spirited...asshole maybe...but not mean spirited. I hope it snows I enjoy your commentary/posts. But then again I am an a**hole as well so I get your humor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: I enjoy your commentary/posts. But then again I am an a**hole as well so I get your humor. Your shortest post ever. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 we need one of those anal fronts to move through and drop its load on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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