Clipper/Coastal Storm January 3-4th 2019

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I don't know why I thought you had kept at least 2-3" on the ground...you're usually better at CAD than here.  But I do think we just had so much moisture in the pack from the November snows it was just never warm enough long enough to torch it away.  And the CAA always seemed to come in quick up here after these events I guess, no days of downslope dandy NW flow.  

But calling what I've had in my yard a snowpack is a liberal interpretation of the word.  More like a 3-5" crusty glacier you can walk on most of this month.  The 1-2" of snow/sleet/ZR has been just enough to make most of these cutters a neutral gain/loss...only adding QPF to the concrete in the end.  

Been a pretty sh*tty month after about the 10th.

I have about 2" of that here after yesterdays mush, Its frozen solid and the ones that didn't clean there yards yesterday are not going to do it now until it warms up........lol, We hold the cad until the winds are 180° out of the south then its full torch, Hanging out just above the Atlantic has its good and bad points.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don't know why I thought you had kept at least 2-3" on the ground...you're usually better at CAD than here.  But I do think we just had so much moisture in the pack from the November snows it was just never warm enough long enough to torch it away.  And the CAA always seemed to come in quick up here after these events I guess, no days of downslope dandy NW flow.  

But calling what I've had in my yard a snowpack is a liberal interpretation of the word.  More like a 3-5" crusty glacier you can walk on most of this month.  The 1-2" of snow/sleet/ZR has been just enough to make most of these cutters a neutral gain/loss...only adding QPF to the concrete in the end.  

Been a pretty sh*tty month after about the 10th.

This has been my epic December.

12/01 35.2  27.1 0.00    0.0  3
12/02 36.8  28.9 0.88    1.0  4
12/03 45.5  31.6      T    0.0  4
12/04 31.6  19.4      T       T  2
12/05 29.6  14.0 0.00    0.0  2
12/06 33.8  21.5      T       T  2
12/07 30.9  14.4      T    0.1  1
12/08 20.8    8.3 0.00    0.0  1
12/09 30.8    6.9 0.00    0.0  1
12/10 28.8  14.1 0.00    0.0  1
12/11 28.1    7.0 0.00    0.0  1
12/12 28.8  10.4 0.00    0.0  1
12/13 23.5    3.9      T       T  1
12/14 35.6  23.3      T    0.0  1
12/15 45.3  27.0 0.00    0.0  1
12/16 35.2  24.1 0.28    1.1  2
12/17 35.1  27.5 0.06    0.1  2
12/18 27.5  18.2 0.00    0.0  2
12/19 30.5  16.3 0.00    0.0  2
12/20 39.9  18.5 0.09    0.0  2
12/21 59.2  30.6 1.41    0.0  1
12/22 54.6  31.3 0.04    0.0  0
12/23 31.7  20.4 0.00    0.0  0
12/24 35.1  19.7 0.01    0.3  0
12/25 27.7  15.5 0.00    0.0  0
12/26 30.2  14.3      T       T  0
12/27 27.6  18.2 0.00    0.0  0
12/28 32.4  22.2 0.65    0.4  0
12/29 41.4  19.8      T    0.0  0
12/30 28.6  17.2 0.00    0.0  0
12/31 37.4  21.8 0.49    2.5  2
                           3.91     5.5

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The more I look at this, all the ski areas from Adirondacks/Greens/Whites should do pretty well.  Mid-level lift punching through snow growth...a bunch of half foot totals wouldn't surprise me in the favored elevations.

I was watching the  SR web cams today and then saw TKs pics from Stowe, absolutely gorgeous bluebird day today and a windless 4-6 tomorrow, cmon man I am so fukking jealous and itchy, next year can't come fast enough. i am working my butt off to strengthen my back but its a long process. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This has been my epic December.

12/01 35.2  27.1 0.00    0.0  3
12/02 36.8  28.9 0.88    1.0  4
12/03 45.5  31.6      T    0.0  4
12/04 31.6  19.4      T       T  2
12/05 29.6  14.0 0.00    0.0  2
12/06 33.8  21.5      T       T  2
12/07 30.9  14.4      T    0.1  1
12/08 20.8    8.3 0.00    0.0  1
12/09 30.8    6.9 0.00    0.0  1
12/10 28.8  14.1 0.00    0.0  1
12/11 28.1    7.0 0.00    0.0  1
12/12 28.8  10.4 0.00    0.0  1
12/13 23.5    3.9      T       T  1
12/14 35.6  23.3      T    0.0  1
12/15 45.3  27.0 0.00    0.0  1
12/16 35.2  24.1 0.28    1.1  2
12/17 35.1  27.5 0.06    0.1  2
12/18 27.5  18.2 0.00    0.0  2
12/19 30.5  16.3 0.00    0.0  2
12/20 39.9  18.5 0.09    0.0  2
12/21 59.2  30.6 1.41    0.0  1
12/22 54.6  31.3 0.04    0.0  0
12/23 31.7  20.4 0.00    0.0  0
12/24 35.1  19.7 0.01    0.3  0
12/25 27.7  15.5 0.00    0.0  0
12/26 30.2  14.3      T       T  0
12/27 27.6  18.2 0.00    0.0  0
12/28 32.4  22.2 0.65    0.4  0
12/29 41.4  19.8      T    0.0  0
12/30 28.6  17.2 0.00    0.0  0
12/31 37.4  21.8 0.49    2.5  2
                           3.91     5.5

We match totals for snow...............

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was watching the  SR web cams today and then saw TKs pics from Stowe, absolutely gorgeous bluebird day today and a windless 4-6 tomorrow, cmon man I am so fukking jealous and itchy, next year can't come fast enough. i am working my butt off to strengthen my back but its a long process. 

You will be able to ski again? I thought you were done.  That would be great

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You will be able to ski again? I thought you were done.  That would be great

IDK man, my heart says yes, Dr says no, but I have been told before  I would never walk again. In 89 my lower leg got run over by a fork truck. So yea we will see who wins this battle, age or my will power. Anyways nice refresher for the boys and girls up there. GO GO GO. People don't understand how many places are suffering when there is no snow, winter economics across the North is a huge thing.

[klw]

BTV gives me a 65% chance of 2+ inches.  Yeah baby!  

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was watching the  SR web cams today and then saw TKs pics from Stowe, absolutely gorgeous bluebird day today and a windless 4-6 tomorrow, cmon man I am so fukking jealous and itchy, next year can't come fast enough. i am working my butt off to strengthen my back but its a long process. 

This is theleast I've skied during the holiday stretch in a long time... the views are always great but the surface conditions are good for about an hour or two then it's ice.  The sub-surface is so rock hard frozen that it doesn't take many skiers down a trail to find it.  

A 4-6" event would go a long way, even if just a 0.3" QPF event.  Just give the groomers something to work with a bit and build from there.  The base is fine and its still solid winter in the base area (12-18" on the ground, incredibly sharp snow depth gradient from like 1000 to 1500ft)...but it's the type of snow that if you crashed your car into the snow banks on the side of the road your car would lose the battle.  Like hitting a brick wall.

[powderfreak]

BTV tickling up... 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 625 PM EST Wednesday...No big changes to the forecast this evening but did update QPF/Snowfall up a little bit based on upstream observations, radar and newest suite of high resolution guidance. That being said, it still looks like most places below 2000 ft will see 2-4 inches of snowfall with summits receiving 5-7 inches.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

This is theleast I've skied during the holiday stretch in a long time... the views are always great but the surface conditions are good for about an hour or two then it's ice.  The sub-surface is so rock hard frozen that it doesn't take many skiers down a trail to find it.  

A 4-6" event would go a long way, even if just a 0.3" QPF event.  Just give the groomers something to work with a bit and build from there.  The base is fine and its still solid winter in the base area (12-18" on the ground, incredibly sharp snow depth gradient from like 1000 to 1500ft)...but it's the type of snow that if you crashed your car into the snow banks on the side of the road your car would lose the battle.  Like hitting a brick wall.

Maine Mountains did well last couple of storms with all frozen, you are a powder snob anyways lol. True grit eastern skiers earn their stripes on ice, its why so many are excellent racers.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Here is your BOX AFD. 

Quote

As the high exits this evening, will see clouds continue to
lower and thicken as two tandem lows approach, one a clipper
type system out of the Great Lakes, with the other crossing the
Carolinas toward Chesapeake Bay.

The mid level pattern remains progressive, with both systems
rather weak. With lack of a digging mid level system and lack of
the systems phasing up, they will remain separate with light
QPF values of about 0.1 inches or less, except a bit higher
across the immediate S coast, the lower Cape and on the islands.

Light snow will push into the CT valley by around midnight,
then will shift E overnight. With the rather weak systems
involved, will see winds shift to southerly, allowing temps to
slowly rise overnight as well. So, will see the snow mix with
and change to rain through the early morning hours across N
CT/RI and SE Mass. Further north and west, the early morning
commute may be a bit tough where temps remain near or below
freezing, especially on untreated roadways. Temps should
continue to slowly rise through daybreak, though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Thursday...

As the separate lows continue to steadily move E, will see the
rain across E coastal and southern areas while it remains light
snow further inland. However, with the fast movement, the
rain/snow will quickly taper off from W-E during the morning as
winds shift to W behind the departing system.

With the light precip, as well as the snow-to-liquid ratio
(SLR) lowers through the night into Thursday morning, not
expected a lot of snow accumulations with generally less than an
inch forecast. Might see around an inch or so fall around the
Route 2 area of N Mass into NW Mass. Clouds will give way to
some sunshine during Thursday afternoon. Temps will actually
continue to rise through early afternoon, topping off in the
mid-upper 30s across the higher terrain, ranging to the mid 40s
across the coastal plain. Winds shift to NW and may become
briefly gusty during the afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 mph
possible.

 

[dryslot]

Pretty bullish i think, I'm not seeing those totals unless they were hugging the 18z Nam

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Pretty bullish i think, I'm not seeing those totals unless they were hugging the 18z Nam

Congrats,  ratios no wind

[Lava Rock]

Pretty bullish i think, I'm not seeing those totals unless they were hugging the 18z Nam

That would be nice

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

That would be nice

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

Unless there thinking the IVT is further west or ratios are around 12:1 on roughly .3-.4" qpf.

[WthrJunkyME]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

That would be nice

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

It would be nice.  I don't know why it bothers me so much, but why are these products different?  Both out of Gray and both with same timestamp?

 

[ineedsnow]

If I see a dusting in the morning  I'll be shocked.. looks like a total miss here now

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WthrJunkyME said:

It would be nice.  I don't know why it bothers me so much, but why are these products different?  Both out of Gray and both with same timestamp?

 

Top of the range in the grid so it bumps to the next level apparently.

[WthrJunkyME]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Top of the range in the grid so it bumps to the next level apparently.

Thanks.  I went back to the page and had "point" selected, not "range".  Now it doesn't bother me anymore! 

 

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Unless there thinking the IVT is further west or ratios are around 12:1 on roughly .3-.4" qpf.

I'm thinking ratios more like 15-20:1 with this.  Decent lift in snow growth zone and these northern stream systems are known to put down fluff.  

17/11 here now.  If the flake size is good this will be cold fluff to make the most of the QPF.

 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm thinking ratios more like 15-20:1 with this.  Decent lift in snow growth zone and these northern stream systems are known to put down fluff.  

17/11 here now.  If the flake size is good this will be cold fluff to make the most of the QPF.

 

Just read the update from Ekster, It is higher ratios, Never gave it any thought because the last few have been 6-7:1's  lol

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
630 PM Update...Have updated the forecast based on latest
observational trends as well as trends in latest mesoscale model
and ensemble guidance. Have made too many changes at this time,
just slight adjustments in PoPs later tonight in line with a
time lagged ensemble of the HRRR model. Bumped snow amounts up
slightly for central and midcoast region of CWA where ratios
should be higher. May have to consider a winter weather advisory
for some zones based on latest trends in guidance. Will take a
peek at some early 00z guidance before determining if (and
where) an advisory is necessary.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Just read the update from Ekster, It is higher ratios.

ASOUT 

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

Just read the update from Ekster, It is higher ratios.

I could see you getting 0.2-.25" with 15:1 ratios pretty easily.  That's 3-4".  

I could see that here as well.  

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

ASOUT 

Good job, Hope the back is treating you better.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I could see you getting 0.2-.25" with 15:1 ratios pretty easily.  That's 3-4".  

I could see that here as well.  

Those are usually rare here being close to the coast, But i should have known with this cold airmass and a northern stream s/w moving west to east that they would be higher, Just watching to many things over the next 7 days for here........lol

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Good job, Hope the back is treating you better.

Day by day thanks. Nice fluff job incoming.  

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You will be able to ski again? I thought you were done.  That would be great

are those the infamous picnic tables I have read referenced here so often?

[powderfreak]

Just looking deeper into it up here... 

The flow is really blocked in the low levels with SE flow at the SFC up through 3-4kft...then westerly up into the mid-levels.   

That bodes well for Stowe and Mansfield's east side.  The BTV4 is picking that up nicely with low level enhancement.  

Simulated radar with 10m wind direction.

 

Precip localized on the SE side of the massif.  And even a little downslope minimum upstream/NW of the mountain.  Pretty cool when the models pick up these nuances.

[#NoPoles]

ESE wind from the Cape up through Blue Hill Observatory. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, PowderBeard said:

Burlington just upped things. Definitely heading to Magic tomorrow.  

Get on it early before things get scraped to ice. But yeah this one looks good for the southern greens. I’m trying to get up for Friday but may have to wait till Saturday. When the going gets ruff you gotta get going.