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Clipper/Coastal Storm January 3-4th 2019


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well yesterday the argument was for Ptype which looked ok down there. Now it’s just a 7/10 split so to speak. 

Sure, but they also go hand-in-hand given the background environment.  Without the precip rates, we are fighting the relatively warm temps that would lead to non-accum snow.

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7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Sure, but they also go hand-in-hand given the background environment.  Without the precip rates, we are fighting the relatively warm temps that would lead to non-accum snow.

Well right. It’s just that yesterday guidance looked better. Not that it matters missing out on an inch that’s gone in hours. 

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16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Sure, but they also go hand-in-hand given the background environment.  Without the precip rates, we are fighting the relatively warm temps that would lead to non-accum snow.

It was a marginal air mass further south and with crappy rates it would be hard to accumulate anyways, Would have needed this Northern stream s/w to dig further south and tap some of that southern stream moisture as a surface low got going to cool the air mass and throw precip back west, A couple runs had showed a similar scenario but that shipped sailed.

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54 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Something we never have to concern ourselves with here, On occasion, A little OES can happen or some of these IVT end up here but not often.

Same here, though OES/IVT is also a non-starter as well.  We did get 2" from a Norlun when living in Gardiner - 1992 IIRC - while PWM had 11" and Kennebunkport over 20.  However, an all-pow 2" would be nice in a season where all the snow event seem to end with unfrozen precip.

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That is what a fast zonal jet from Pacific to Atlantic does , no good last moment changes wrt phasing / digging . Disjointed weak crap. Enjoy

Lots of good feelings coming from James, but with the little blue pill over AK instead of the Aleutians it remains a limp pattern.

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The only way Southern New Engalnd was going to cash in on this was only if the Northern stream cooperated and dove the SW underneath us.  As long as the Pacific dominates like this, phasing, favorable hits, and timing of cold air will be hard to come by.  Need that Pacific/MJO/PNA to become favorable.

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4 minutes ago, Greg said:

The only way Southern New Engalnd was going to cash in on this was only if the Northern stream cooperated and dove the SW underneath us.  As long as the Pacific dominates like this, phasing, favorable hits, and timing of cold air will be hard to come by.  Need that Pacific/MJO/PNA to become favorable.

Exactly! Been that way for weeks. One system after another in to the Pac NW.

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4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

We disagree on it being an issue. 

I just know that when there’s enough of a trough to drop it under us ala 2/6/78 we do quite well.  It’s impossible to make blanket statements because downstream conditions dictate the outcome.

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If PAC NW troughs were a massive issue, we'd probably eliminate more than half of our La Niña snow events. 

Fast flow is def an issue for amplifying systems but there's obviously a host of other factors at play that determine whether we score or not. 

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I just know that when there’s enough of a trough to drop it under us ala 2/6/78 we do quite well.  It’s impossible to make blanket statements because downstream conditions dictate the outcome.

It's possible to get a severe storm in practically any pattern. I'd rather not take my chances with a pattern that persistently brings storms into the west.

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12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

We disagree on it being an issue. 

What it seems your having a tough time with is the origin.  You want a High pressure instead of a Low pressure over the Alaska area. That Low pressure is why you keep hearing the chant "One-eyed Pig" on this board

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1 minute ago, Greg said:

What it seems your having a tough time with is the origin.  You want a High pressure instead of a Low pressure over the Alaska area. That Low pressure is why you keep hearing the chant "Pig Eye" on this board

We want the Eskimos cryin' for their mamas in the melted permafrost.

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