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Clipper/Coastal Storm January 3-4th 2019


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's def a little blow up right as it exits stage right...if that can pop just a shade sooner then there could be some higher amounts. That's something to watch...esp for eastern areas. 

Seen some good warning events like you and i have mentioned when these get going sooner, Eastern areas of SNE, Coast here and DE are favored.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think this system blows up sooner, it just gives me a certain feel this time around, that is a very potent shortwave in the northern stream and the GFS is the more amplified member of the 18z crowd of models, I believe the HIRES models will come in stronger at 00z.

I'm surprised you feel that way about a system. 

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

This feels different than the other misses this winter.

Why? 

It is a pretty weak sauce setup. There's some potential for it to develop quicker but it could easily just end up as staying somewhat flat. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Why? 

It is a pretty weak sauce setup. There's some potential for it to develop quicker but it could easily just end up as staying somewhat flat. 

I noticed that during the previous flops according to my forecasts for bigger events than actuality, the SREFs mean guidance would perk up at 72 hours, and then slowly each run later forecast less and less for the area as we got closer to the event timeline, however, we are now within 42 hours of the event happening, and the guidance is perking upwards in snowfall amounts over the area, this should be a sign that the guidance believes in a bigger event as we get within a closer timeframe.  The NAM guidance each new 00z or 12z runs showing a more amplified storm on the coast, which tells me as the new data comes in for the runs to start and initialize on, they get the new data and end up more amplified.  Plus with a southern stream energy disturbance involved that breaks off the main parent vortex over TX gets involved, these systems end up phasing in more than modeled within the next 36 hours.  Just something I find interesting.

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