USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 The HIRES NAM and the regular NAM model runs of tonight's 00z runs, January 1st, 2019 00z, 7 pm EST, Monday, December 31st, both show the system that can bring us accumulating snows, without a much favorable weather pattern overall, we have western CONUS ridging which provides a reason for the northern stream disturbance to dig southward across the Great Lakes, from Manitoba, Canada to a position over New England. This brings the coastal storm closer to the coastline of SNE just east of Atlantic City, NJ. If the HIRES is correct, this coastal low develops to 1012mb just east of the NJ coastline, providing a long enough window for intensification south of SNE, providing the area with heavier snows. Even the warm biased SREFs at this 60-hour range are rather cold for this event, daytime temps near 36F. If I were to guess an average snowfall forecast for the area, I would say 1-4" for western zones of SNE, and 2-6" for eastern zones from Worcester and Providence, RI eastward, with Cape Cod perhaps seeing if all snow, about 4-6". We shall hope and pray this event does not disappear within 36-hours and disappears just to give the area a dusting of snow, like the four events in December that gave Harwich less than .01" of snow. Still enough time for this to go either direction. We need luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 First Rainer of the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 It's more like a quickly moving inverted trough with the offshore storm and the northern stream s/w passing to our north. Too much southerly flow and not much moisture with a crappy airmass. Interior is favored and it is likely trivial at best for amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Also... extended NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Also... extended NAM This will come, it was the energy that we were watching two days ago for the monster coastal low, but that phase is not happening with the southern stream vortex staying in the south for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 00z ICON in agreement with a stronger low on the coastline for this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 This thread should have more play right now given the latest 12z runs, HIRES NAM is at the benchmark with a low-pressure center about <999mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 NAM looks great for 1 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: NAM looks great for 1 to 3 It shows if it was cold enough on Cape Cod for 3-6" and maybe 6+ for ACK, if the air was cold, it should be given the 850mb and 925mb temps are both below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Looks marginal, but If the NAM were right ORH May score an inch or two. Looks more wet or glop like South of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It shows if it was cold enough on Cape Cod for 3-6" and maybe 6+ for ACK, if the air was cold, it should be given the 850mb and 925mb temps are both below freezing. Looks tough for snow there except maybe at the beginning. Nam looks like 1-2 in many spots. Same with Reggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks tough for snow there except maybe at the beginning. Nam looks like 1-2 in many spots. Same with Reggie. HIRES NAM almost puts the low at the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: HIRES NAM almost puts the low at the benchmark. SE winds ahead of weak inv trough are never good for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 11 hours ago, dendrite said: It's more like a quickly moving inverted trough with the offshore storm and the northern stream s/w passing to our north. Too much southerly flow and not much moisture with a crappy airmass. Interior is favored and it is likely trivial at best for amounts. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: SE winds ahead of weak inv trough are never good for the Cape. Yeah true, hoping for heavy precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Better looking Northern stream s/w on the 12z GFS this run, Digs a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Gfs gives a nice departing gift to ern areas and coastal Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 One thing is certain, there is a lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture coming northward up the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Looks like that GFS run would yield 1-3"+ along the coast and coastal plain inland where its cold enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Super fast zonal flow from pacific well into Atlantic I’ll lean toward weak elongated and disjointed it’s thread the needle to see more unless Mets disagree btw it’s gorgeous out I need to find a milf that lives at elevation just drove home from mass and there is indications we saw at least a coating here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Gfs and cmc have the precip... but pretty marginal pike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Some of these solutions are pretty interesting. Nice little low level enhancement. Could be a burst of mod to heavy snow for a brief time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs and cmc have the precip... but pretty marginal pike south Looks wet for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks wet for us. Yup... maybe ORH north scores an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 hours ago, dryslot said: Better looking Northern stream s/w on the 12z GFS this run, Digs a little further south. Been waiting for the n stream to begin to exert a bit...could still be some sneaky snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Been waiting for the n stream to begin to exert a bit...could still be some sneaky snow. Yes, Its coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Yes, Its coming. Looked like I was going to be wrong on that system, but still hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looked like I was going to be wrong on that system, but still hope. Pretty potent s/w so there is some potential there, Right now 1-3" is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Pretty potent s/w so there is some potential there. We are entering into that point of view season where the northern stream will be often under estimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We are entering into that point of view season where the northern stream will be often under estimated. Its time to assert its presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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