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NorEastermass128

Futility Thread - Winter 18/19

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the issue is that for forecasting purposes, probability forecasting just isn't that useful. It doesn't tell you a great deal about the evolution of winter.

No, in terms of winter weather it's fairly useless. I mean you can maybe gauge how much fuel use based on temps, but for snowfall there is nothing to go on from NCEP. 

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

No, in terms of winter weather it's fairly useless. I mean you can maybe gauge how much fuel use based on temps, but for snowfall there is nothing to go on from NCEP. 

Yup. Apples and oranges to compare that forecast and mine...different animals. Not at all meant to impugn their work...it is what it is. That forecast has more utility for the energy market, etc imo.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It will be tough to keep up with my blog given all of the winter activity and the post bumping that I'll need to do over the next several weeks.

I picture you opening up the pdf of your forecast every night, turning on some Peter Cetera, and singing this to it every night before you fall asleep.

 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Extremely high confidence...and yes, I hope.

This is a slam dunk call imo.

It's even easier where I live. All it takes is one big storm to get us to a normal season.

I think if last March happened in February, we'd have seen a 40-50"+ month. 

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6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's even easier where I live. All it takes is one big storm to get us to a normal season.

I think if last March happened in February, we'd have seen a 40-50"+ month. 

At the same time though, if we hadn't seen the early January blizzard last year (an amazing and VERY underrated storm IMO) the whole complexion of the snow season would have changed.

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2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I don't know...I kind of loved 50F and no pack yesterday. Futility has lead to some great days to spend time outside. I love the forecasting and observing part of winter weather but if it could be 75F and all melt the day after that would be cool too. 

Welcome to the "Dark Side".  You will be welcomed with open arms.

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17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Extremely high confidence...and yes, I hope.

This is a slam dunk call imo.

What are the sensible expectations out of curiosity?  With this confidence is it a 60-inch month in SNE?  I feel like most of this crowd still won't be satisfied with this huge snow period talk if they come out with even 24-30" in a month with a couple solid warning events and advisories thrown in.  

It seems like it needs to go huge to reach the expectations you've been laying down. Curious what that looks like sensibly? 

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What are the sensible expectations out of curiosity?  With this confidence is it a 60-inch month in SNE?  I feel like most of this crowd still won't be satisfied with this huge snow period talk if they come out with even 24-30" in a month with a couple solid warning events and advisories thrown in.  

It seems like it needs to go huge to reach the expectations you've been laying down. Curious what that looks like sensibly? 

People won’t be satisfied no matter what due to losing December.  But give SNE folks 20-30 per month for 2-3 months and the whining will be significantly muted.   Anyone expecting 60/month is not realistic but realism never stopped anybody before....

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What are the sensible expectations out of curiosity?  With this confidence is it a 60-inch month in SNE?  I feel like most of this crowd still won't be satisfied with this huge snow period talk if they come out with even 24-30" in a month with a couple solid warning events and advisories thrown in.  

It seems like it needs to go huge to reach the expectations you've been laying down. Curious what that looks like sensibly? 

Back to back 24" months would prob go a long ways....like maybe the period from 1/9-3/9...maybe it doesn't all fall right in the calendar months. You get maybe 18" for the rest of January and then you put up 23" in February and then maybe another 15" the first 10 days of March...something like that...there's 56" right there and you didn't have to come close to breaking any records. 

That tends to be how most good seasons work anyways...you get blitzed for like 6 weeks and then you have your filler events on the shoulders. 

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What are the sensible expectations out of curiosity?  With this confidence is it a 60-inch month in SNE?  I feel like most of this crowd still won't be satisfied with this huge snow period talk if they come out with even 24-30" in a month with a couple solid warning events and advisories thrown in.  

It seems like it needs to go huge to reach the expectations you've been laying down. Curious what that looks like sensibly? 

I think most posters realize what this season is going to be in SNE and are thinking 40-50” . That’s probably about all we can muster. It sucks , and maybe a blockbuster storm will skew that, but I don’t think most of us are expecting a huge 2nd half 

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Spent some time checking now data. Days of the year with most 10 inch plus snows. Jan 20th and Feb 5th. Big surprise was how many Dec 26ths show up for the 6 plus day. Best climo period for big snows is fron Jan 15th to March 20th.

Best days yet to come

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Back to back 24" months would prob go a long ways....like maybe the period from 1/9-3/9...maybe it doesn't all fall right in the calendar months. You get maybe 18" for the rest of January and then you put up 23" in February and then maybe another 15" the first 10 days of March...something like that...there's 56" right there and you didn't have to come close to breaking any records. 

That tends to be how most good seasons work anyways...you get blitzed for like 6 weeks and then you have your filler events on the shoulders. 

Yeah that's reasonable.  I don't know enough about your climo except to know the second half is often snowiest.  

Just with Ray's confidence I was wondering what the expectations are.  That sounds reasonably attainable for sure.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's reasonable.  I don't know enough about your climo except to know the second half is often snowiest.  

Just with Ray's confidence I was wondering what the expectations are.  That sounds reasonably attainable for sure.

Here it splits almost exactly between NDJ and FMA - the 2 halves were only an inch apart going into this season.

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34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What are the sensible expectations out of curiosity?  With this confidence is it a 60-inch month in SNE?  I feel like most of this crowd still won't be satisfied with this huge snow period talk if they come out with even 24-30" in a month with a couple solid warning events and advisories thrown in.  

It seems like it needs to go huge to reach the expectations you've been laying down. Curious what that looks like sensibly? 

I posted seasonal numbers in the outlook. 

But I expect two KU level events with some 20"+ amounts between 1/20 and 2/20.

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's reasonable.  I don't know enough about your climo except to know the second half is often snowiest.  

Just with Ray's confidence I was wondering what the expectations are.  That sounds reasonably attainable for sure.

I know a good deal of my posts have an arrogant tone, but I won't try to spin anything...if I'm wrong, I'll admit it and just try to figure why.

I will say that after going back over things, My Dec call def. was not perfect...aside from missing out on the early month snow through some misfortune, I did miss the +EPO that was prevalent. I was correct RE the grinch event/monthly NAO behavior, and that the PNA was not strong, but expected pretty much wall to wall EPO this season, so Scott was right when he said that no one nailed that. I said that I did, but I didn't. I think it relates back to what Tom said RE the short term feedback from the SSW. I did not think that we would see a technical SSW, but we are.....so there was some deviation from the expectation. The blocking that will materialize was expected, nonetheless.

In the end my monthly departure for Dec were good, so missing the SSW and Pac jet interlude is largely immaterial to the forecast seasonal evolution. I did nail the Dec monthly evolution from a sensible standpoint, as well as the NAO. I'll post about the Dec verification this week.

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's reasonable.  I don't know enough about your climo except to know the second half is often snowiest.  

Just with Ray's confidence I was wondering what the expectations are.  That sounds reasonably attainable for sure.

Roughly ORH climo is:

Nov: 3"

Dec: 13"

Jan: 17"

Feb: 17"

Mar: 14"

Apr: 4"

minor scraps in Oct/May

Total: 69"

 

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On ‎1‎/‎1‎/‎2019 at 9:58 AM, weathafella said:

We don’t know the answers yet obviously but to automatically paint El Niño warm is just wrong.   Some our most severe winters in the past 70 years being were during ninos, most with warm periods like we’ve experienced.

How many truly severe winters has there even been during the last 70 years?

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How many truly severe winters has there even been during the last 70 years?

Define severe.  That’s me it’s way above normal snow. 

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I do not consider a winter with well above snowfall and above normal temps to be severe.  A winter can be severe with average snowfall if the temp is well below average.  And some winters may have a severe period such as 14-15 but not be an overall severe winter.  

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Boston's 5 coldest winters since 1960 were:

1976-1977 27.6 

1970-1971 27.7

2014-2015 27.8

2002-2003 27.8

1993-1994 27.8

 

Of those 5, 3 were El Niños, 1 was La Niña and 1 was neutral. 

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