40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It may also be why most play met men shouldn’t. I don't play "met"...I play me pursuing an outlet that keeps me grounded and enriches my life. Kind of like running does for you. I hope we both have many more years of doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 No one is going to take long range forecasting seriously after this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Luck or voodoo or bad or good Juju is just what we call it when we(as a science community) don’t understand why something happens in the presence of circumstances that should dictate the opposite. I think that’s a better way to describe the luck/chaos aspect of this. Im sure there’s a scientific reason for what is happening now, despite the decent H5 set up. The problem is, we don’t know exactly what that reason/causation is yet??? So we call it chaos etc etc... Well some of it is explainable....with no blocking, there is an avenue for every storm to cut, and with poorly timed confluence, also an avenue for every storm to whiff south. But when all of them avail themselves of said opportunities? I call it SNE's Patrick Mahomes impersonation at the meteorological coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No one is going to take long range forecasting seriously after this winter. I think seasons like this advance the science the most. Last season was easy....I knew the answer to 2+2 was 4 heading in. But when you tell me something that I don't know? I call that room for growth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't play "met"...I play me pursuing an outlet that keeps me grounded and enriches my life. Kind of like running does for you. I hope we both have many more years of doing so. Keep your feet on the ground .. and keep reaching for the stars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Keep your feet on the ground .. and keep reaching for the stars? Not the stars...just the best version of myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: This isn’t even niño. Throw any analog for niño out window. This is more 13-14 displaced a bit north. I know you mention 68-69 as behaving like niño, but atmosphere is showing no sign of niño. Talk to me in 2 months. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: How are low solar years crappy? I don’t see that. Go back in look at his stuff...I didn't see it either, but I'll revisit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well some of it is explainable....with no blocking, there is an avenue for every storm to cut, and with poorly timed confluence, also an avenue for every storm to whiff south. But when all of them avail themselves of said opportunities? I call it SNE's Patrick Mahomes impersonation at the meteorological coin flip. Yes of course some if it is explainable by all means. And you’ve explained it as well as anybody can for sure. But it’s(the weather) still not doing what the explantations would show. And that’s where we don’t have the tech yet(in the modeling) to reveal these tricky reasons out in front enough, to account for these chaotic outcomes, when most everything else argues for a decent outcome. That’s the chaos of this science currently. Sure there’s a real reason for it...we just don’t know what it is, or why yet. Great job nonetheless Ray!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes of course some if it is explainable by all means. And you’ve explained it as well as anybody can for sure. But it’s(the weather) still not doing what the explantations would show. And that’s where we don’t have the tech yet(in the modeling) to reveal these tricky reasons out in front enough, to account for these chaotic outcomes, when most everything else argues for a decent outcome. That’s the chaos of this science currently. Sure there’s a real reason for it...we just don’t know what it is, or why yet. Great job nonetheless Ray!! Well, I think that is implicit with any long range outlook...all you can do is play the odds based upon the pattern you see. And no worries...you can tell me that my outlook sucked. Its okay I've missed it...luck, or no luck. Its cool, though....I've learned a lot doing it, and I hope others have, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 If you get the temps and H5 pattern correct I think that is the most skillful part of a LR forecast. Anyone who has been around long enough knows how fickle snowfall can be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I think that is implicit with any long range outlook...all you can do is play the odds based upon the pattern you see. And no worries...you can tell me that my outlook sucked. Its okay I've missed it...luck, or no luck. Its cool, though....I've learned a lot doing it, and I hope others have, too. I agree 100%. You play the odds on what you see...and like you said that’s all we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I think that is implicit with any long range outlook...all you can do is play the odds based upon the pattern you see. And no worries...you can tell me that my outlook sucked. Its okay I've missed it...luck, or no luck. Its cool, though....I've learned a lot doing it, and I hope others have, too. I think your outlook was great...you got the H5 right in my opinion..it’s jyst this season is a dud here for us..stuff like that you can’t see from a far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 The good news takeaway from this is that there are a lot of talented people, both pro and weenie, who put a lot of work and thought into their perspective outlooks. Should this season flop, I’ll bet some of these folks will be doing a full postmortem to find out where things went wrong and in effect advancing the science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I love the 80s referenced liberally this year. Anyone watch The Americans episodes? Takes place during the Reagan years and so classic 80s background. Filmed on a lot of snowy backdrops interestingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I know people hate hearing this but this winter was purely MJO driven. Just plot the MJO back from early December and everything that happened can be tied down to it from the SE snowstorm (phase 2-3) in early Dec to the mid Dec-early Jan mild weather (phase 4-6) to the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm (phase 8) and now back to the milder weather (phase 6-7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I know people hate hearing this but this winter was purely MJO driven. Just plot the MJO back from early December and everything that happened can be tied down to it from the SE snowstorm (phase 2-3) in early Dec to the mid Dec-early Jan mild weather (phase 4-6) to the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm (phase 8) and now back to the milder weather (phase 6-7). Well it may have matched the expected pr phase but was it MJO driven? I can’t answer that. But keep in mind correlation does not imply causation even if it looks that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 28 minutes ago, weathafella said: I love the 80s referenced liberally this year. Anyone watch The Americans episodes? Takes place during the Reagan years and so classic 80s background. Filmed on a lot of snowy backdrops interestingly. This was from Ray and I was laughing my arse off. Reagan Ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I know people hate hearing this but this winter was purely MJO driven. Just plot the MJO back from early December and everything that happened can be tied down to it from the SE snowstorm (phase 2-3) in early Dec to the mid Dec-early Jan mild weather (phase 4-6) to the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm (phase 8) and now back to the milder weather (phase 6-7). Oversimplifying it. Our coldest weather of the entire season has been phase 4-6...including our one decent winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Man go to the 1985 billboard hits. So many good classics. Torch, torch...let it all out.. These are the things weenies can do without c’mon..... I’m talking to Ray, c’mon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Yeah I don’t think we can say mjo driven. I think the strat issues partly mucked it up and we probably had a feedback process from that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Man go to the 1985 billboard hits. So many good classics. Torch, torch...let it all out.. Melt, melt, let it all out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Melt, melt, let it all out? One night in Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 So you think winter’s over? that the cold, has finally reached, the end every model run, night or day the pattern’s torching on you, and all of your friends...yeah it’s gonna take a little time Time is sure to re-sort, the troughs Oh don’t you even worry weenie darlin’ the step down will begin again oh yeah snow is, all around you Cold is knockin’, outside your door Waiting for you, is heavy snow falling at 2F Keep your weenie up and you will find some snow again, i know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: One night in Tolland lol don’t you cryyyyy tonight it is snowin’ above you, babyyyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Ladies and gentlemen of the weenie class of 2018-19 I have one piece of advice for you No matter what Ray tells you There’s no snow in southern New England None Oh there’s cold in southern New England, but you don’t want cold You want snow And there’s no snow in southern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Ladies and gentlemen of the weenie class of 2018-19 I have one piece of advice for you No matter what Ray tells you There’s no snow in southern New England None Oh there’s cold in southern New England, but you don’t want cold You want snow And there’s no snow in southern New England Jesus christ...champagne room was 1999? I swear that was 10 years earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: One night in Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: Jesus christ...champagne room was 1999? I swear that was 10 years earlier. Get it together Brian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 48 minutes ago, dendrite said: Ladies and gentlemen of the weenie class of 2018-19 I have one piece of advice for you No matter what Ray tells you There’s no snow in southern New England None Oh there’s cold in southern New England, but you don’t want cold You want snow And there’s no snow in southern New England CAD. Ain't nothing wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Get it together Brian. Do you really want to hurt Ray? Do you really want to make Ray cry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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