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Futility Thread - Winter 18/19


NorEastermass128
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4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Boston is up to 16.6 inches through March 3rd. Boston, NYC and Philly all reported low snow ratios for the 3/3 snows they received with much of the snow falling above freezing.  

What?  BOS reported 2 inches of snow on 0.18 qpf on 3/2.  3/3 had 0.7 snow with 0.09 qpf as the current monster had just started.  Most locations around Boston are over a foot for ths event and counting.

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4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Boston is up to 16.6 inches through March 3rd. Boston, NYC and Philly all reported low snow ratios for the 3/3 snows they received with much of the snow falling above freezing.  

The warmth was too strong here in NYC and also Philly.

Boston has to be around 7-10 inches by now.

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55 minutes ago, weathafella said:

BOS with today’s 10.6 is up to 27.2.  Not that far from respectability.   We’ve actually had a steady diet of events beginning 2/17

They are a front ender advisory event and a bowling ball away from average....obviously not easy to do, but we've seen it before plenty of times.

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Logan averages 43.8" using the 1981-2010 mean. At 26.5" through 3/4, there is about a 10% chance historically of getting to average numbers by May using the data from 1892-2018.

The storm snapped Boston much closer to my blend, so I was pleased to see that -

10/1-3/4 Boston Snow

1953-54: 21.1"

1976-77: 47.3"

1986-87: 36.3"

1994-95: 14.5"

1994-95: 14.5"

2006-07: 6.4"

Blend: 23.4" - damn near the actual of 26.5"

My hunch is there isn't much more snow for the NE from DC to Boston this year, but we'll see. Phase 2 of the MJO is pretty wet in the NE so wasn't too shocking to see the little reversion toward average. My blend had 35" for Boston, I assumed it'd be somewhat less, but it doesn't look too bad given that only 1/10 years will get to 44" from 26.5" on 3/4.

 

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5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Logan averages 43.8" using the 1981-2010 mean. At 26.5" through 3/4, there is about a 10% chance historically of getting to average numbers by May using the data from 1892-2018.

The storm snapped Boston much closer to my blend, so I was pleased to see that -

10/1-3/4 Boston Snow

1953-54: 21.1"

1976-77: 47.3"

1986-87: 36.3"

1994-95: 14.5"

1994-95: 14.5"

2006-07: 6.4"

Blend: 23.4" - damn near the actual of 26.5"

My hunch is there isn't much more snow for the NE from DC to Boston this year, but we'll see. Phase 2 of the MJO is pretty wet in the NE so wasn't too shocking to see the little reversion toward average. My blend had 35" for Boston, I assumed it'd be somewhat less, but it doesn't look too bad given that only 1/10 years will get to 44" from 26.5" on 3/4.

 

As I said in the other thread, your snowfall call was probably on target.  Logan probably received 35-40 inches of snow but its constant undermeasurements since November have them off target (they are doing what JFK has been doing for years.)

 

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5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Logan averages 43.8" using the 1981-2010 mean. At 26.5" through 3/4, there is about a 10% chance historically of getting to average numbers by May using the data from 1892-2018.

The storm snapped Boston much closer to my blend, so I was pleased to see that -

10/1-3/4 Boston Snow

1953-54: 21.1"

1976-77: 47.3"

1986-87: 36.3"

1994-95: 14.5"

1994-95: 14.5"

2006-07: 6.4"

Blend: 23.4" - damn near the actual of 26.5"

My hunch is there isn't much more snow for the NE from DC to Boston this year, but we'll see. Phase 2 of the MJO is pretty wet in the NE so wasn't too shocking to see the little reversion toward average. My blend had 35" for Boston, I assumed it'd be somewhat less, but it doesn't look too bad given that only 1/10 years will get to 44" from 26.5" on 3/4.

 

I think there is one more opportunity for snowfall near the end of the week

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  • 3 weeks later...

forgettable Met winter with about 5 inches of snow locally.   Storms in Nov and March got us to average but close to zero in December, not much in Jan, and a couple of 2 inch events in Feb.  Just awful given the consensus for a good winter.   Starting to lose the +AMO which will lead to less NAO blocking next cycle.

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