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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

A week ago the EPS had a great look. It busted. It can bust. I don't know if it will here but it's been awful at range. The heights are still rising in the NW day 15 but it sucks waiting a week longer then the gfs to get things started. 

The h5 look on the EPS should become noticeably more favorable over the next couple runs. Today's 12z run ends on Jan 17th. The advertised h5 look from today's run aligns quite well with the 17th from the most recent edition of the weeklies. I know for some the the progression seems painfully slowwww or non-existent, but it is in pretty good alignment with the look and the timing from the weeklies of a few days ago- the EPO ridge started to really take shape around the 18-19th, and the overall pattern became progressively more favorable from there. 

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Spot on
It's actually pretty close except there is more -nao now...

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
Spot on

It's actually pretty close except there is more -nao now...

Not bad at all for accuracy on a 15d mean. Hope like hell its wrong now though....

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:
9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
Spot on

It's actually pretty close except there is more -nao now...

Of all the years on here when models were on separate pages and we waited for one to blink which one usually does?

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:
13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
Spot on

It's actually pretty close except there is more -nao now...

Wow...great find!  Gives even more credence to them going forward

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Congrats Ji. Looks like rain in Rockville tho
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_38.png&key=866639d2547b641d4a7c1ef6ededec7fb137c9e92ab4cf90c6e89f898f5fdbc7
You did promise digital snow would show up....well ignore that the lp is in motown
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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The h5 look on the EPS should become noticeably more favorable over the next couple runs. Today's 12z run ends on Jan 17th. The advertised h5 look from today's run aligns quite well with the 17th from the most recent edition of the weeklies. I know for some the the progression seems painfully slowwww or non-existent, but it is in pretty good alignment with the look and the timing from the weeklies of a few days ago- the EPO ridge started to really take shape around the 18-19th, and the overall pattern became progressively more favorable from there. 

Don't disagree with anything but its really hard to accept how atrocious the high latitudes look d15. The flip to a decent pattern has a long ways to go from the end of the EPS. If Jan is a shutout then this winter sucks no matter how good Feb is. Significant challenges to even having a chance at beating climo. 

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Seems like the more the Pv split...the more winter split. We are on a treadmill

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z looks good

Euro and gfs on a pattern change by the 15th

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15 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Wow...great find!  Gives even more credence to them going forward

When did you get a new tag DT?

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31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't disagree with anything but its really hard to accept how atrocious the high latitudes look d15. The flip to a decent pattern has a long ways to go from the end of the EPS. If Jan is a shutout then this winter sucks no matter how good Feb is. Significant challenges to even having a chance at beating climo. 

I guess but the HL looked crappy on the weeklies for the same time frame, and the pattern still evolved to very workable by the 22nd. I'm just hoping the EPS are still on the same "schedule", and if so, we are looking at the 20th or just beyond. I have long since accepted that the first 2 weeks or so of Jan are toast.

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 If Jan is a shutout then this winter sucks no matter how good Feb is. Significant challenges to even having a chance at beating climo. 

This is where I'm getting to.  If I don't see a single snowflake in December and most or all of January, that's a horrific stretch regardless if we get KU'd on March 5th.  

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

This is where I'm getting to.  If I don't see a single snowflake in December and most or all of January, that's a horrific stretch regardless if we get KU'd on March 5th.  

Yea, the dearth of even getting a couple dustings is depressing AF. There's a difference between winters with crappy patterns that drop an inch here and there and ones that do nothing but rain for 2 straight months. I'm at the point where i would celebrate a glaze of zr with a cutter running into a musty stanky rotten airmass. Can't even pull that off. Wtf

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15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Lol

Lol despite the sexier HL look, the (advertised) ground truth on the last few GFS/GEFS runs for our region is pretty toasty- not much different than the EPS with it's shiitty look up top.

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is where I'm getting to.  If I don't see a single snowflake in December and most or all of January, that's a horrific stretch regardless if we get KU'd on March 5th.  

It’s still possible that this winter won’t suck if we go on a heater in Feb and March and hit climo.   It took a while for things to flip in 2015 and no one would say that winter sucked.  What makes this winter so rough is the let down from the forecasts of a big winter.  December is supposed to suck but losing January is a kick in the face.  

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20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I guess but the HL looked crappy on the weeklies for the same time frame, and the pattern still became very workable by the 22nd. I'm just hoping the EPS are still on the same "schedule", and if so, we are looking at the 20th or just beyond. I have long since accepted that the first 2 weeks or so of Jan are toast.

This is where I’m at.  Even if the GEFS is too rushed (which is probable), if the EPS follows the progression of the latest weeklies, we’d be back in a pattern that would allow chances after the 20th.  I wrote off the first half of January before Christmas.

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, the dearth of even getting a couple dustings is depressing AF. There's a difference between winters with crappy patterns that drop an inch here and there and ones that do nothing but rain for 2 straight months. I'm at the point where i would celebrate a glaze of zr with a cutter running into a musty stanky rotten airmass. Can't even pull that off. Wtf

I’m frankly shocked at what a total shutout it’s been. December was warm, but you’d think with much AN precip and “only” a +3 departure we’d have gotten some slop. But no. And now looks like 2-3 more weeks of the same at least.  Might have to root for the trace free winter season if we get to Jan 31 like this. If we’re going to fail, let’s #bebest. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

I’m frankly shocked at what a total shutout it’s been. December was warm, but you’d think with much AN precip and “only” a +3 departure we’d have gotten some slop. But no. And now looks like 2-3 more weeks of the same at least.  Might have to root for the trace free winter season if we get to Jan 31 like this. If we’re going to fail, let’s #bebest. 

Well, by BWI records, that's happened only once in the last 136 years (January 1937)!

And really, only 5 Januaries on record featured just a trace! (Last one was January 2005)

Meanwhile...16 Januaries have received measurable snow under an inch...

So we could be wading into historic territory here if things don't turn around!

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I am working very hard to suppress my inner Deb. I believe the best global model in the world is on schedule to begin revealing the pattern of all our hopes and dreams, at 0z, and will continue the trend at 12z tomorrow. Anddddd.. the new version of the weeklies tomorrow will not kick the can down the road (anymore than a day or 2). 

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I’m frankly shocked at what a total shutout it’s been. December was warm, but you’d think with much AN precip and “only” a +3 departure we’d have gotten some slop. But no. And now looks like 2-3 more weeks of the same at least.  Might have to root for the trace free winter season if we get to Jan 31 like this. If we’re going to fail, let’s #bebest. 


Could root for a trace free “winter” but I’m pretty sure between the early November storm and the early December storm most of us have seen something... not to diminish the disappointment of this winter so far. Can’t believe I punked myself into raising my guesses in the contest twice, haha.

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Here is the GEFS from 18z 12/26 for 00z Thursday vs the 18z run today for the same time.  Actually did pretty well except for the strength/position of the SE ridge, 50/50 low, and the AO region.  Handled the GL blocking and Pacific very well.  

EAF9DF96-34C5-450A-92B2-6DC23DD1F92F.png

 

94632934-9A1F-4C83-8844-657341A872BF.png

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am working very hard to suppress my inner Deb. I believe the best global model in the world is on schedule to begin revealing the pattern of all our hopes and dreams, at 0z, and will continue the trend at 12z tomorrow. Anddddd.. the new version of the weeklies tomorrow will not kick the can down the road (anymore than a day or 2). 

I’m right there with you keeping the optimism alive for the pattern change coming soon.  The mood here isn’t helped by a complete shutout north of PWC since the November storm.  #staystrong

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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Could root for a trace free “winter” but I’m pretty sure between the early November storm and the early December storm most of us have seen something... not to diminish the disappointment of this winter so far. Can’t believe I punked myself into raising my guesses in the contest twice, haha.

 

Yeah, I was just referring to DJF.  But not even a trace in December, followed up by the same in January would be a historic fail.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

One thing that is troubling is even when the trough axis is right over us the heights are still above normal. 

I saw that too on the 18z gefs. Mids and surface are warm. 850s arent a furnace like the eps but still AN d10-16. 

Nobody predicted the magnitude of how bad this winter has been along the east coast and mid west. The SE scored nicely during the only legit storm pattern we've had all winter. Other than that short stretch in early Dec its been abysmal. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One thing that is troubling is even when the trough axis is right over us the heights are still above normal. 

This is what I was pointing out after the 12z run. 

If you loop the past runs of the GEFS though the above normal heights are becoming muted. That makes more sense with the look in the HL.

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