• Member Statistics

    15,731
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    wxRob_Coleman
    Newest Member
    wxRob_Coleman
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area.

Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average.

This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY

I was talking about DCA, not northern Delaware. I need about 19-20 more inches to reach climo.

Also, you're the one who's been complaining more than almost anyone else in here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The pattern is changing....the cutters are cutting farther West now. Thanks MJO.

 

So with that said it seems there is quite a bit of confidence that it locks in as a sustained neg NAO. Seems to contradict and I dont mean you or anyone personally. I would take the neg NAO unicorn with a grain of salt still until it is fully established. That's just my amateur conservative approach. I'm sure I'm wrong and way off base.

I think seeing universal agreement at longer leads gives credence to progged -NAO. Any long range forecast can bust because we're a long ways away from that type of accuracy but seeing strong consensus and it's not moving further out in time is a good sign. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Models gotta show all the varieties at this point

Strong, cold high pressures or zero high pressure is the winter trend

keep showing 1035+ and we snow or  suppress. 1010 and they cut.

we had a slew of cutters plus  one suppressed and one worked out beyond perfect.

The thing I have found models The Best at is high pressure placements. Seeing strong highs portrayed in the right places seems to be the trend right now 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m willing to go out on a limb and say we score some snow before Feb. The models are jumpy and I’d bet we run into something in the medium to short range in the next two weeks that we don’t even have on the radar at the moment.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The euro OP usually has at least 1 run that is terrible throughout the entire run for any given medium range focus per storm threat.

Hopefully the Ensembles look better and more in line with our beloved UKMET

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

The euro OP usually has at least 1 run that is terrible throughout the entire run for any given medium range focus per storm threat.

Hopefully the Ensembles look better and more in line with our beloved UKMET

Not 12z. Very much in line with the op. Very few solutions do much in our area. Basically the storm is doing exactly what it should for the upper level setup leading in. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area.

Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average.

 

This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY

 

 

 

 

What the **** happened to you? 

You need Apollo to help you get back your Eye of the Tiger.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area.

Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average.

This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY

you are funny. 

also, it's fare, not faire

and I need 23" or so to hit climo... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I never thought that on Jan 15, we would be looking at the long range and saying disaster

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:

I never thought that on Jan 15, we would be looking at the long range and saying disaster

It's not a total disaster like December. We'll get pretty cold after each rainstorm. 

  • Like 4
  • Haha 4
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:

I never thought that on Jan 15, we would be looking at the long range and saying disaster

We were looking at a disaster on 1/1/19 and we just got close to a foot of snow. So it’s best if we punt and complain because that worked well for this past event. I’m not even kidding lol

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

We were looking at a disaster on 1/1/19 and we just got close to a foot of snow. So it’s best if we punt and complain because that worked well for this past event. I’m not even kidding lol

we are getting close to Ians sun angle season so we better come up big between Feb 1 and PD weekend. For me after, PD weekend, winter is pretty much over. You have to have a really special storm after that to get me excited. Most of our March storms end up unproducing

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:

we are getting close to Ians sun angle season so we better come up big between Feb 1 and PD weekend. For me after, PD weekend, winter is pretty much over. You have to have a really special storm after that to get me excited. Most of our March storms end up unproducing

pretty sure this is all season long, not just after Presidents Day. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

I cannot stress this enough. Not everyone did that well.  Not even close.

+1

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

good call, quickly going off the rails in here

With the current 10 day outlook... don't expect the new thread to be much different. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bob Chill said:

With the current 10 day outlook... don't expect the new thread to be much different. 

What happened to all the optimism a few days ago?  Sorry, long time lurker/novice here.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Models gotta show all the varieties at this point

Strong, cold high pressures or zero high pressure is the winter trend

keep showing 1035+ and we snow or  suppress. 1010 and they cut.

we had a slew of cutters plus  one suppressed and one worked out beyond perfect.

The thing I have found models The Best at is high pressure placements. Seeing strong highs portrayed in the right places seems to be the trend right now 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cautioned about the “10 days away” mantra in late December.

we just got big snow and we will get some more even though all the hobbledeegee about SSW and whatever just keeps getting pushed away.

Follow the high pressure set ups for now, that is what is ruling 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.