GATECH Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 This Bonnie Raitt song epitomizes my relationship with this winter....since this is now the banter thread.... ”I can’t make you love me” Turn down the lights Turn down the bed Turn down these voices inside my head Lay down with me Tell me no lies Just hold me close, don't patronize Don't patronize me 'Cause I can't make you love me if you don't You can't make your heart feel something it won't Here in the dark, in these final hours I will lay down my heart and I'll feel the power But you won't, no you won't 'Cause I can't make you love me, if you don't I'll close my eyes, then I won't see The love you don't feel when you're holding me Morning will come and I'll do what's right Just give me till then to give up this fight And I will give up this fight 'Cause I can't make you love me if you don't You can't make your heart feel something it won't Here in the dark, in these final hours I will lay down my heart and I'll feel the power But you won't, no you won't 'Cause I can't make you love me, if you don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Amazing to think that if you add up all the snow DC has had from Jan 2016, Jan 2017, Feb 2016, Feb 2017. That 4 months of prime winter. They've had a grand total of 2.8 inches. With any luck, we can add 2 more months to the list soon! A full half year of prime winter and not crack 5 inches! Can it be done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro cuts the storm to Indiana lol please stop with the negativity. you still get nailed 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 19 minutes ago, H2O said: LR disco thread is now the banter thread due to lack of snow Snow? I was just sitting out on the deck sipping an IPA and soaking up some D3. At least there won't be any sun angle panic this winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: I expect to see differences from run to run at 500s on the GFS with a system that is inside 5 days. But this is getting to be a little bit ridiculous. whats 400-500 miles among weenies...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Looks like the next rain event on the Euro ends just as the New Year begins --- a good sign?? Is that wraparound snow the Euro is showing early morning to the NW of DC on the 5th; the Low appears to be well past us. Is the January 8/9th storm still forming or is it that clipper moving across New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 hours ago, frd said: In addition to above from Isotherm, just posted Posted 10 minutes ago The momentum response which many of us have been forecasting/discussing for weeks is occurring -- strong FT surge, EAMT rising rapidly, and AAM tendency, rising sharply. This coinciding w/ MJO propagation through dateline. The much advertised tropospheric alterations in progress. boiled down....i think we have our SSW event starting to make it into regions that will start to show up on tellies and weather maps for your perusing pleasure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: boiled down....i think we have our SSW event starting to make it into regions that will start to show up on tellies and weather maps for your perusing pleasure. I agree. Many things coming together right now in real time and over the next few days to a week. The odds of an historical wintery period to me is still there. I agree with Bob, I am bored too, but there is a lot to observe the next few weeks. Learn from it for future winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro cuts the storm to Indiana lol That will happen. I'm being 100% serious. It's a lock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, frd said: I agree. Many things coming together right now in real time and over the next few days to a week. The odds of an historical wintery period to me is still there. I agree with Bob, I am bored too, but there is a lot to observe the next few weeks. Learn from it for future winters. Yup. This does suck but you bring up a great point, that while not all great patterns end up great.....not all bad patterns end up horrible. Mind you it'd be nice to eek out some snow in the next week to ease the pain of waiting for the "read deal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 the 10 day Euro looks good...if you like repeat events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, frd said: GFS call me stupid, but that if NS energy diving down into the dakotas on that last frame could meet up with the energy in the SW, that would potentially make for a good storm. Question is where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 For anyone who's interested, I put up some post-mortem discussion of the December storm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That will happen. I'm being 100% serious. It's a lock. What happened to the coastal storm chances increasing when the -NAO is switching to positive? And with the model volatility and the SOI stuff going on, I'm hanging with the Jan. 3rd/4th storm until Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 This is the worst winter crisis since 2017-2018 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: What happened to the coastal storm chances increasing when the -NAO is switching to positive? And with the model volatility and the SOI stuff going on, I'm hanging with the Jan. 3rd/4th storm until Tuesday. -NAO is offset by the awful pacific it seems. Then when we have a good Pacific its always offset by an awful NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: -NAO is offset by the awful pacific it seems. Then when we have a good Pacific its always offset by an awful NAO With the erratic model outputs, whose to say if the Pacific is really awful or not? Maybe it's not awful, maybe it's just shi&&y. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 47 minutes ago, Ji said: please stop with the negativity. you still get nailed says the king nay sayer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Snow? I was just sitting out on the deck sipping an IPA and soaking up some D3. At least there won't be any sun angle panic this winter. Sitting on my deck and raising a glass of wine to you, from my side of the Bay! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 12z euro is a total dumpster fire but has some room to get worse. 0z should finish off what little chance we have. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 34 minutes ago, Ji said: -NAO is offset by the awful pacific it seems. Then when we have a good Pacific its always offset by an awful NAO 504dm over eastern Greenland on the Day10 12z Euro. Pretty +NAO. The Pacific looks great. Look at the differences over NAO region at 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z euro is a total dumpster fire but has some room to get worse. 0z should finish off what little chance we have. Talking about the Jan 4 event or just in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Wow - came back after a couple hour break and had a popup indicating 81+ replies in this thread alone (2-1/2 pages worth). For a fleeting moment I thought "at last, that must mean something good" only to read through the thread and get the flood of desperation. Sigh... That video from AM with the big Hudson Bay LP just sitting and spinning is interesting. It's feeding a train of LPs up through Greenland. If we could just get that to drift towards 50/50 and bring the Nrn Jet S a few hundred miles... a big if. Wonder if the current state of extremes in various factors is just too much for the models to handle given the large variance run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 I’m still holding strong to the 1/15-1/20 call for things to improve. Euro is off with the MJO as I don’t think it gets into the COD which seems to be driving the LR guidance now.. Just gotta be patient. And if I’m wrong, I’m wrong...always next year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Seems EPS is saying the 9th-11th is a potential window. About 1.5” on the snowfall means for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 EPS isn't awful in the long range. But everytime it looks like the PAC is gonna back off it crashes another trough into the west to pop more ridging in the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS isn't awful in the long range. But everytime it looks like the PAC is gonna back off it crashes another trough into the west to pop more ridging in the east. Pac has been relentless since the good pattern since the first 10 days of Dec. We hoped the flip would be shortlived but here we are with 2 weeks behind us and 2 weeks in front of us on the panels. I'm not going to trust any long range looks for the better. The base state has shown itself and will prob continue longer than we think/hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 12z euro is a total dumpster fire but has some room to get worse. 0z should finish off what little chance we have. It's not too early to start a thread for that...let's do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I have a feeling the next round of Euro weeklies are going to look like a spectacular wreck and the Panic Room will be filling up fast (if it isn't already)!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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