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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Maybe we get the grand solar min deep winter in 2019 -2020

Of course until I measure 20 inches and a air temp of 12 degrees F.  I'm out. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Not at all what I'm doing.  Not sure where that came from.  It's no fad for me.  Its just another variable in the meteo mix.  We all know that the nao/epo., so I'm not sure why that's even being considered as "missed". It is missed alright... by all of us.

So far what we thought was going to be a potentially good winter has been nothing short of sh!t.  We've all been "fooled" enough by long range guidance to know that seemingly better times keep getting pushed back. 

My interest in the SSW is and always been that it CAN be an important variable for cold in the conus. (depending on where/how it sets up).  It's just like EPO/NAO/AO, and so far none of them have materialized (and I know why so i dont need to be told).  Not being harsh but there are alot of informed pros/amateurs that all have been scratching their heads and there is no one right answer....or person that knows.  Thats the fun of this game.  We all have our thoughts and come here to share them.  

That's it.  

My response wasn't directed at you...sorry that it came off that way.  I was mostly talking about the twitter talking heads who seem to be dialed into the sswe like it's all that matters.  In fairness to some of them, if they are experts on that, it is kind of an exciting global weather "event" and perhaps that is simply their interest...but then snow weenies like us get a hold of it and hug it and misuse it wrt importance to a specific location and snow.  

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52 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What other guidance?  The GEPS?

NQwLq2t.png

He is off to a less than spectacular start.  Maybe he wants to give Carbondale a run for his money.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He is off to a less than spectacular start.  Maybe he wants to give Carbondale a run for his money.  

20 posts from him so far and each one equal to the last so far

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23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I wouldn't. He did though. I guess it didn't fit the narrative.

It's becoming apparent he is a troll.  He might not be wrong...but the way he is a broken record with the same exact deb narrative and cherry picks only what fits the narrative...seems obvious.  I might be an optimist but I don't ignore evidence that doesn't support my optimism.  

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29 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Agreed. What I'm hearing this morning from everybody is how mets try to predict the winter and they all fail. If they were unable to predict this crap pattern then they're probably unable to predict us going into a great pattern. That can go both ways. They point to this thing and that thing in the future and try to predict how it will impact a specific city on the globe. It's honestly ridiculous what they do year in and year out. It's all way too complicated. That's why you just have to let the weather come to you and not look ahead more than 10 days imo. I know this isn't a technical/scientific post but it's pretty much the truth. So, this is what I'm thinking. It's still WAY too early to throw the towel in. If the EPS went from showing a good look to a crap look in a couple days there is no reason to think that in the next couple of days it will go from showing a crap look to an amazing look.  Especially with the some support from the GEFS, GEPS, MJO moving along, and SOI going negative. If it's still showing a crap pattern on Jan 20 then we punt all of January but to punt it all on January 3 is still ridiculous. Also, I wish everyone didn't worship at the alter of the weeklies as much as they do. They are the biggest fail machine I have ever seen past week 2.  It is amazing how with all the forecasting tools we have we're still kind of clueless how it all fits together in the LR. 

Very well stated and we don't have to have a met degree to understand things well enough to see what is or isn't happening from a more amateur view (tellies etc).  Sure we don't have answers, but we can see the clues being offered.  That isn't said to discredit anyone whatsoever.  Utmost respect for those that make a living out of this and I love reading/learning from them.  Tough job lately. 

Couldn't agree more about the 10+ day looks of late, and if you are doing it, do it from a 10,000 ft view, not parsing through minute details.  While many are bummed, I'd guess that most are sensible enough to know that its far to early to close the books.  Yeah, we are loosing some prime time, but I'll take whatever I can get, whenever I can get it.  That said, I think we all (well i know i do) just dream of that locked in cold look that has an active STJ just launching storm after storm at us.  It always has been my bar anyway.  

Lets hope the coming days show some better looks.  Its about time. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My response wasn't directed at you...sorry that it came off that way.  I was mostly talking about the twitter talking heads who seem to be dialed into the sswe like it's all that matters.  In fairness to some of them, if they are experts on that, it is kind of an exciting global weather "event" and perhaps that is simply their interest...but then snow weenies like us get a hold of it and hug it and misuse it wrt importance to a specific location and snow.  

In this case it seems Europe gets the goods , right. I mean checking out forecasts they seem to benefit from the SSWE.   

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He is off to a less than spectacular start.  Maybe he wants to give Carbondale a run for his money.  

I read yesterday and maybe you did too psu. the GEPS, the FV , GEFS etc, all had the better look up top because of the forecast they each had regarding the WPO , all three models took it down. 

Guess what . the EPS and the Euro deterministic did not. 

I am not implying the WPO holds more weight versus the EPO, but that was very interesting to behold. 

I read fragments form Isotherm and others and HM and the message implied seems to be we need to "wash out " the warmth and re-set the pattern . Until the MJO resets the North Pac does not change.

I also feel myself, where we need Pac , Europe does not.  And, I know HM stated the strat effects ( blocking ) it is not uncommon for Europe to see the effects first. 

Jason F also speaks about the Eastern Hemisphere being up first and then us ( I have reworded his phrasing to a degree ) best to see his post.  

 

 

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My response wasn't directed at you...sorry that it came off that way.  I was mostly talking about the twitter talking heads who seem to be dialed into the sswe like it's all that matters.  In fairness to some of them, if they are experts on that, it is kind of an exciting global weather "event" and perhaps that is simply their interest...but then snow weenies like us get a hold of it and hug it and misuse it wrt importance to a specific location and snow.  

Fair enough.  There is twitter talk, but they (like here) can be unfollowed.  I follow as its fascinating, and like you, i know little about it.  To their point, they obviously think it holds enough weight (dense cold air weight) to keep bringing it up.  Any they ARE the smart ones, so I'm listening...especially when it can be somethings that gives us what we need for snow....cold.  Dense, stabil cold that stays around long enough for storms and/or rumors of them to give us a chance at getting on the snowstick.  Thats it.  

Rants over....lets get ready for the 12z's and hope that change is afoot....like a foot of snow.

 

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9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

20 posts from him so far and each one equal to the last so far

Sorry but I’m not going to pretend like things are going to dramatically change in our favor.  Once the EPS flipped to a god awful PAC it hasn’t looked back and has been spot on.  Whether or not you want to admit that all other guidance has slowly caved towards it is up to you.

you can talk as much SSW as you want but more often than not they throw wrenches into winter forecasts and hurt more often than help.  I’ve never been a fan of them and don’t understand all the hype surrounding them.  Persistence has been the theme this winter and i see nothing that is going to change that.  No shame in admitting it and moving on.

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6 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Sorry but I’m not going to pretend like things are going to dramatically change in our favor.  Once the EPS flipped to a god awful PAC it hasn’t looked back and has been spot on.  Whether or not you want to admit that all other guidance has slowly caved towards it is up to you.

you can talk as much SSW as you want but more often than not they throw wrenches into winter forecasts and hurt more often than help.  I’ve never been a fan of them and don’t understand all the hype surrounding them.  Persistence has been the theme this winter and i see nothing that is going to change that.  No shame in admitting it and moving on.

You're not reading my posts if you attach the above to me. I'm basically saying that you have carved out a posting niche for yourself that is quite predictable

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1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

Maybe but it's around the time you have been talking about for changes to take place.

Yea and it could be right...but there are signs the progression is slowing even more.  I targeted the 15-20th for a pattern change.  If I am off a few days...ok.  But if the pattern doesn't flip until February I am not going to pull a Cohen or a JB and claim victory.   Every pattern changes eventually...at some point I was just wrong.  I did not envision this MJO wave or SOI spike.  The logic behind much of my forecast was that the soi and mjo would be largely favorable this year as the SST analogs argued.  Those analog years were substantially more coupled to the nino SST than this year.  So in hind sight perhaps those analogs will turn out to be wrong and some enso neutral years coming on a 2 year nina will turn out to be a more accurate analog, and some of those are awful!.  The SOI is a better measure of the atmospheric response to a nino sst so if the SOI fails to respond then the water being in a nino doesn't really matter.  It is time to admit some of the preconceived notions for this winter were wrong.  

Now that I have pushed some to the ledge...let me walk them back.  If we re-evaluate where we are right now...at this moment, there are still reasons to be hopeful this is not an entire winter shut out type year...or even to hope that this could still end up a back loaded year.  

1.  SOME of the analogs to a strat warm this time of year had very warm starts and then drastic reversals...1966 being one of the best outcomes from a similar event to this year...also one of the analogs for SST

2.  The PV is a mess, weak, being punched around from both the strat and the trop and has no sign of recovering.  So far the benefits have been and will be to the other side of the hemisphere but that could easily shift around.  The weak PV would favor blocking as we head later in winter.

3.  The MJO has been just flat out awful, possibly the absolute worst EVER for early winter.  But just looking at where the wave is right now, and guidance, objectively it SHOULD improve "soon".  There will likely be a lag with a weakening wave coming off such a LONG time in warm phases...and HM gave some even more technical reasons for that so its reasonable to think the benefits of the MJO move are still outside guidance range.  

4.  There has NEVER been an soi spike during a ONI +5 or greater during early winter that wasn't followed by a drop.  We might be seeing it now.  That would favor a pattern change from a nina to a nino base state.

5.  Simple "persistence/pattern" forecasting would argue that this pattern we are in now is likely running its course soon.  It developed by mid December...even if it is the dominant pattern of winter the odds of it running the table to March are very very low.

6.  While the SST may not be having the positive impact we wanted it also is not in a configuration that would hurt us IF we can get the negative factors listed in the first paragraph out of the way.  

 

So.... While I concede things have NOT gone the way I predicted earlier...and the flip back may end up delayed long enough that I will not claim any victory from it...there are still signs for hope that our fate is not decided yet.  I am still optimistic we will see a better pattern starting to show up soon.  Later then I wanted...but perhaps in time to salvage this dumpster fire.  

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's becoming apparent he is a troll.  He might not be wrong...but the way he is a broken record with the same exact deb narrative and cherry picks only what fits the narrative...seems obvious.  I might be an optimist but I don't ignore evidence that doesn't support my optimism.  

I said after his 5th post he should be 5-posted. :lol:

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

, but I still can't help wonder about those that obsess about the strat

This right here. All we hear about is strat this and strat that. If the pattern doesnt flip many are going to go down hard with their calls. I dont know anything about SSW's. Nothing at all. But I know a horrid winter pattern when I see one. And I also know that the majority of the time that horrid pattern is hard to get rid of.

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This right here. All we hear about is strat this and strat that. If the pattern doesnt flip many are going to go down hard with their calls. I dont know anything about SSW's. Nothing at all. But I know a horrid winter pattern when I see one. And I also know that the majority of the time that horrid pattern is hard to get rid of.

the irony is good patterns are often transient.  we are often looking for a cracked window within a horrid pattern.  Words never heard are  "jeez, we have been in this wretched snowstorm pattern for weeks when will it end..close the blinds until it warms up...need the NAO to go positive or you can forget spring weather"

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26 minutes ago, frd said:

In this case it seems Europe gets the goods , right. I mean checking out forecasts they seem to benefit from the SSWE.   

I read yesterday and maybe you did too psu. the GEPS, the FV , GEFS etc, all had the better look up top because of the forecast they each had regarding the WPO , all three models took it down. 

Guess what . the EPS and the Euro deterministic did not. 

I am not implying the WPO holds more weight versus the EPO, but that was very interesting to behold. 

I read fragments form Isotherm and others and HM and the message implied seems to be we need to "wash out " the warmth and re-set the pattern . Until the MJO resets the North Pac does not change.

I also feel myself, where we need Pac , Europe does not.  And, I know HM stated the strat effects ( blocking ) it is not uncommon for Europe to see the effects first. 

Jason F also speaks about the Eastern Hemisphere being up first and then us ( I have reworded his phrasing to a degree ) best to see his post.  

 

 

Agree with all those points... the first post from Jason kind of contradicts...he says MJO in 7/8 interferes with a -AO when it is strong amp but then in the next sentence says when the MJO amplitude is weak it is "less cold".   Not sure if it was a typo or I am missing something.  But the point seems to be clear that the MJO might yet STILL be interfering with an improved pacific look.  And HM concurs as he has laid out reasons that right now given the current AAM and the SSWE it argues for a lag with the MJO such that the wave will be slow to propagate AND we might not feel positive impacts right away even after it does get into 7/8.  That BTW was true last year as the SSWE happened around Feb 10, and the MJO progressed into cold phases that month...but the impacts were delayed until March.  

People don't want to hear this but it is still just a LITTLE too soon to declare all the positive signs in various influences to be irrelevant and a failure.  I would give it another week...if we get to January 10th and there is still no positive sign across long range guidance then it is time to panic.  We were in this same spot last year.  Things had sucked for a LONG time in January into Feb and then the SSWE and MJO both made positive changes...and the soi dropped and we got frustrated when the pattern looked like poo still...then a week later the changes started to show up but by then everyone had checked out because it would be March...and you know the drill.  This time if there is a similar 2 week delay we would see the changes start to impact the pattern the very end of January and have a pretty good pattern in February.  Maybe it isn't the blockbuster winter many were hopeful for a month ago...but if we could get a similar progress to what happened from about March 1 to April 15 last year...but get that from Feb 1 to March 15...that could end pretty darn good.  That pattern was pretty epic but it was just too late for us to really cash in.  The fact we got a pretty good event that late in March last year and were still tracking legit threats a week into April was evidence of a good pattern.  Give me that look in prime climo and I'll take my chances.  

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This feels a lot like 2015 to me.  I do think we see a flip in early Feb to a colder pattern.  That correlates to this wretched pattern lasting about 6 weeks, which is about how long the wretched warm early fall pattern lasted.  I'd wager BN temps for Feb and normal snow.  Then, turning warm again in March.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

We were in this same spot last year.  Things had sucked for a LONG time in January into Feb and then the SSWE and MJO both made positive changes...and the soi dropped and we got frustrated when the pattern looked like poo still...then a week later the changes started to show up but by then everyone had checked out because it would be March...and you know the drill.  This time if there is a similar 2 week delay we would see the changes start to impact the pattern the very end of January and have a pretty good pattern in February.  Maybe it isn't the blockbuster winter many were hopeful for a month ago...but if we could get a similar progress to what happened from about March 1 to April 15 last year...but get that from Feb 1 to March 15...that could end pretty darn good.  That pattern was pretty epic but it was just too late for us to really cash in.  The fact we got a pretty good event that late in March last year and were still tracking legit threats a week into April was evidence of a good pattern.  Give me that look in prime climo and I'll take my chances.  

Sounds a lot like 2015.  I’m not knowledgeable enough to know the differences but I do recall that we waited for what seemed like forever for a flip to a decent pattern.  It flipped in early Feb for NE and then mid-Feb for us and we went on a nice little run.  

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4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This feels a lot like 2015 to me.  I do think we see a flip in early Feb to a colder pattern.  That correlates to this wretched pattern lasting about 6 weeks, which is about how long the wretched warm early fall pattern lasted.  I'd wager BN temps for Feb and normal snow.  Then, turning warm again in March.

I agree with Feb. Not sure it lasts into March though. Pac puke is the most stable pattern it seems in winter. As someone above posted the good patterns are always transient and rarely last more than 2 weeks.

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The way this winter is going I can see us flipping to below normal temps but then having the moisture train shut off.  Warm/wet, cold/dry.  That would be the ultimate kick in the groin.

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38 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Sorry but I’m not going to pretend like things are going to dramatically change in our favor.  Once the EPS flipped to a god awful PAC it hasn’t looked back and has been spot on.  Whether or not you want to admit that all other guidance has slowly caved towards it is up to you.

you can talk as much SSW as you want but more often than not they throw wrenches into winter forecasts and hurt more often than help.  I’ve never been a fan of them and don’t understand all the hype surrounding them.  Persistence has been the theme this winter and i see nothing that is going to change that.  No shame in admitting it and moving on.

Where are you from?  The Center Valley that is just south of Allentown PA?   How did persistence work for you last March and April when your area got like 35" of snow after March 1? 

 

You have every right to give your opinion...but you are a broken record, every post is almost the same without much scientific reasoning to support it.  And you openly ignore evidence that conflicts with your narrative.  I might be an optimist I don't ignore the guidance that sucks.  And...why are you posting constantly all of a sudden in this forum pretty far from your area?

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Latest MJO from Euro.  Further amplification of the wave but speeds us through 7/8 into COD to emerge in Phase 4.  If we do emerge back in Phase 4, we can pretty much close the blinds.  

Latest from GEFS has us loop in Phase 7.  Both suggest we’re in Phase 7 by the weekend.  

D87647D0-5674-4471-8969-6333F440F1C3.gif

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And HM concurs as he has laid out reasons that right now given the current AAM and the SSWE it argues for a lag with the MJO such that the wave will be slow to propagate AND we might not feel positive impacts right away even after it does get into 7/8. 

Good post, and yes HM seems to have a grasp at what is happening, you could in simply terms almost flip what HM is stating to fit Tip's view of no gradient , right ? 

That is a stretch, but HM is saying too much tropical basin warmth. And, like you said psu, even when we get to phase 7 or 8 it may even take additional time. 

HM leaves the door open on a possible change to the better. 

To me it is either the structure of the El Nino is at cause for this, or the strat is to blame.


From Isotherm's post the strat event caused unforseen issues with the Pacific Ocean conveyor belt and f ed up everything from the BDO to the Hadley cell IMHO. Everything is interelated out there,  and when you step back and think about it , it is amazing how one area/casue and effect relationship then effects another and so on and so on.  

 

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6 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I agree with Feb. Not sure it lasts into March though. Pac puke is the most stable pattern it seems in winter. As someone above posted the good patterns are always transient and rarely last more than 2 weeks.

yes that was me...hence the latest MJO forecast by the Euro...speed us through 7/8 and COD to 4...of course that would be the progression never the other way. 

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