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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I saw that too on the 18z gefs. Mids and surface are warm. 850s arent a furnace like the eps but still AN d10-16. 

Nobody predicted the magnitude of how bad this winter has been along the east coast and mid west. The SE scored nicely during the only legit storm pattern we've had all winter. Other than that short stretch in early Dec its been abysmal. 

i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels

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Here's a good visual of the past  2 runs of the GEFS at the same time stamp. The ridge in the east is much more muted. Hopefully this trend continues over the next few days.

I'm just so ready to get out of this stinking shut out pattern.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65-2.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_64.png

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels

We're basically half way there. Probably get to 2/3rds without a hitch. Long rangers are getting nervous...

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Atleast we are starting to get some looks in the LR.  I hope that implies we are starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Edit Ninjaed by @Bob ChiII

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels

I remember that too. That was a horrible winter. I think we had a early snow that year also. At least here in Central Virginia 

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels

He pretty much did as did most.  There was a trof in the east the majority of the winter.  Still the 18Z GFS makes no sense at 384.  You can’t have that sort of pattern and be THAT much above normal. The vortex is pretty far up in Canada but the pattern out west would mostly filter Canadian or arctic air south.  It would never be worse than near normal in that setup.  01-02 had a much worse pattern out west than that 

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it’s Jan 2nd...yes Ilearned how to use a calendar.  Time is on our side for now.  

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31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I guess our only hope now is that you guys ability to predict weather is as good as your ability to predict weather 

Visions of cold and a skiff of snow on the 15th came to me in a dream, and was followed by many blizzards.

 

Please don't like this post, Chuck.

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51 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I guess our only hope now is that you guys ability to predict weather is as good as your ability to predict weather 

I cant predict the weather, but I predict there will be marked improvement in the advertised pattern towards D15 over the next couple runs of the EPS, particularly in the N/EPAC.

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When I checked this thread at lunch things were looking pretty optimistic.  I came home checked the thread and..

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3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

When I checked this thread at lunch things were looking pretty optimistic.  I came home checked the thread and..

That guy Bob

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15 days in phase 5.  Latest post from donsoutherland.  Note the mention of risk that it sends longer than modeled in phase 6:cliff:

 

 

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21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

When I checked this thread at lunch things were looking pretty optimistic.  I came home checked the thread and..

The mood of this thread depends on whether the GEFS just came out or the EPS just came out.  From 12-3 we are in GEFS-land.  From 3-7 we are stuck in the EPS reality.  Then after 7 we’re hopeful again. Until the next EPS.  

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6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

They keep cooling northern Europe.. unawareness of what's happening now pattern wise. 

5 minutes ‘til Wapner...and sometimes dad lets me drive slow on the driveway on Saturdays. 

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1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

They keep cooling northern Europe.. unawareness of what's happening now pattern wise. 

agree--if the ice was icier in Iceland and the green was Greener in Greenland, that would probably give us an -NAO even the ridge in Hawaii

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btw...every rain storm we have had in DEC was once modeled as snow 9-10 days out

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26 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

By the way, what is the "vodka cold" thing in reference to?

Vodka = Russia. Russia = Siberia. Siberia = Cold.

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1 minute ago, wdavis5784 said:

Vodka = Russia. Russia = Siberia. Siberia = Cold.

Yeah I figured that but it seemed like there was a specific incident relating to Joe Bastardi that everybody was referencing.

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Yeah I figured that but it seemed like there was a specific incident relating to Joe Bastardi that everybody was referencing.

he kept calling for Vodka cold in 2001-02 winter.....said it was 10 days away.....when it finally came...it was February...of 2003

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

he kept calling for Vodka cold in 2001-02 winter.....said it was 10 days away.....when it finally came...it was February...of 2003

So we're set for February 2020?

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