psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Are you ready to jump? Yes he is. Psu is next Yesterday you were all distraught over the day 16 op gfs looking awful. So why aren't you happy now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Yesterday you were all distraught over the day 16 op gfs looking awful. So why aren't you happy now?Because it will shows up in the mid 80s at 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yesterday you were all distraught over the day 16 op gfs looking awful. So why aren't you happy now? Why? Because the 12z gefs is about to show an epic pac flood with blues and oranges in all the wrong places 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 When's the next heavy rain soaker? My crops are drying out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, PhineasC said: When's the next heavy rain soaker? My crops are drying out. Really? My rice and cranberry crops are off the f'n chain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Sometimes ripping and reading isn't fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 25 minutes ago, Ji said: Ggem shows a severe snow jan 9 10...bob chili storm Cool another tucked low to go with our cutters. I'd rather get back to suppression....at least it was cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Sometimes ripping and reading isn't fun RIP'ing and bleeding is more appropriate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 If you look on the bright side there are very few steps back that can be taken. The bad news we need 3 pairs of shoes to endure the number of steps forward it will take to snow again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 If you look on the bright side there are very few steps back that can be taken. The bad news we need 3 pairs of shoes to endure the number of steps forward it will take to snow again Yes sir. And we know how to navigate from rock bottom like no other area. Good to see that leesburg04 isnt the only troll here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 The EURO will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: No, not all all. I might melt and troll the F out of this place tho and keep it up until it looks promising inside of a reasonable amount of lead time. So i guess i'm saying its time to prepare and dust off the ledge and pile up broken glass and rusty nails in the landing area. lol I don't know why but that's exactly where I am emotionally. I still think a pattern change is coming. Sometime later this month. But it's still been exceptionally awful and I'm as frustrated by that as everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Maybe its the optimist in me, but unless I’m reading it wrong, I don’t think the GEFS is terrible especially as we get to mid month. -NAO, -AO, +PNA. Aluetian low. Need the trough off the west coast to move west I’d think (?). Missing a trough over the east too. It’s not a KU look but certainly not a shutout pattern. I could be way off though so I’ll defer to Bob, PSU, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you look on the bright side there are very few steps back that can be taken. The bad news we need 3 pairs of shoes to endure the number of steps forward it will take to snow again Yes sir. And we know how to navigate from rock bottom like no other area. Good to see that leesburg04 isnt the only troll here Hey!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dont know about you guys but I'm epically bored rn Uh-oh...when Bob gets bored...troll Bob appears, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Maybe its the optimist in me, but unless I’m reading it wrong, I don’t think the GEFS is terrible especially as we get to mid month. -NAO, -AO, +PNA. Aluetian low. Need the trough off the west coast to move west I’d think (?). Missing a trough over the east too. It’s not a KU look but certainly not a shutout pattern. I could be way off though so I’ll defer to Bob, PSU, etc. It's a frustrating look. Globally the longwave pattern SHOULD promote a trough in the eastern US. But it's been like that for several days and now really progressing towards an eastern trough despite every major telleconnection being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's a frustrating look. Globally the longwave pattern SHOULD promote a trough in the eastern US. But it's been like that for several days and now really progressing towards an eastern trough despite every major telleconnection being right. Sure is frustrating. I wonder if its the MJO driving the lack of the trough in the east? Get it to Phase 8 and we’d see the heights respond along the EC? It seems the SOI and MJO are the story of winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Sure is frustrating. I wonder if its the MJO driving the lack of the trough in the east? Get it to Phase 8 and we’d see the heights respond along the EC? It seems the SOI and MJO are the story of winter so far. What is phase 8 is cod and short? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Sure is frustrating. I wonder if its the MJO driving the lack of the trough in the east? Get it to Phase 8 and we’d see the heights respond along the EC? It seems the SOI and MJO are the story of winter so far. Dont worry, once we get to phase 8 there will be some freak kelvin torque hadly wave combined with a southerly wind burst that torches us 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Dont worry, once we get to phase 8 there will be some freak kelvin torque hadly wave combined with a southerly wind burst that torches us Dont forget the typhoon recurve east of Cincinnati 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's a frustrating look. Globally the longwave pattern SHOULD promote a trough in the eastern US. But it's been like that for several days and now really progressing towards an eastern trough despite every major telleconnection being right. So the MJO is the sole reason for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Dont forget the typhoon recurve east of Cincinnati And it will somehow snow in Carbondale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dont worry, once we get to phase 8 there will be some freak kelvin torque hadly wave combined with a southerly wind burst that torches us We’ll have a SSW right over us so we’re in the 90s by March 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So the MJO is the sole reason for this? No by day 16 on the gfs the mjo is into phase 7 which in January isn't that hostile. The Pacific doesn't get right until the last couple days. Perhaps it needs more time to influence the longwave pattern downstream. Or there is another culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 LR disco thread is now the banter thread due to lack of snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So the MJO is the sole reason for this? To be frank, I don't feel as if I have a handle on why anything is happening. Models are flipping every run with violently opposed solutions. Showing up with 500 hPa anomalies which seem physically impossible given the teleconnections. The PV is doing the chachacha and no one knows where it will end up, maybe back at the north pole, maybe in Ji's basement. MJO behaving like it's in a Nina. A persistence forecast maybe the only reasonable approach: it will be mild and wet until it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's a frustrating look. Globally the longwave pattern SHOULD promote a trough in the eastern US. But it's been like that for several days and now really progressing towards an eastern trough despite every major telleconnection being right. I think in our case, even though we do not like it , we may end up just having to wait a little longer. ( no, not two weeks longer ) If it were not for the favorable tendencies in the late Fall, the big negative AO dive, SAI and snow cover depth I say I be worried. Cold air winning out , etc. By the nature of many of the past analogs I am stil confident we get some nasty winter weather. Where we go late Jan and Feb I dont even think there is a analog for that now , I see 2013 and other dates, but based on the SSWE combined with the weak Modaki El Nino we are in somewhat uncharted waters. Hopefully we see continued positive trends in the next 3 to 7 days regarding greater high lattitude blocking, and more concensus for a negative AO and NAO and a change in the NAM. I think for the AO and NAO we are already seeing that in some of the guideance. All in all I feel this delay may help in extending winter , and / or openning the door to a more severe winter period. Speculation of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Euro cuts the storm to Indiana lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Euro cuts the storm to Indiana lol It’s pretty incredible that what seems like the last three or more weeks there has been a Midwest storm on Friday. Quite the atmospheric memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Gefs has a couple nice hits day 11-15 so I guess the pattern isn't that awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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