MD Snow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Two days in a row of overall better trends here with the - AO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just slight differences between 12z and 6z GFS at 102h. Has the model lost its mind? When are we finally upgrading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I expect to see differences from run to run at 500s on the GFS with a system that is inside 5 days. But this is getting to be a little bit ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, frd said: Two days in a row of overall better trends here with the - AO Yes does look encouraging; however, note the increasing low-bias in the model forecast with time. This bias is one reason why on average models' 7-14 day climatologies are colder and stormier than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, peribonca said: Just slight differences between 12z and 6z GFS at 102h. Has the model lost its mind? When are we finally upgrading? That's a good question. I wonder if the upgrade will be delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, losetoa6 said: You could see significant changes already at 60 hours or so lol It is basically useless trying to figure out where the GFS is going/trending when we see such massive changes. I understand it is pretty much due to how it is handling the NS energy but still we are talking runs that aren't even in the same ball park. I guess until further notice I will be sticking with the GEFS (which hasn't been exactly stellar either) and the EURO/EPS to get a sense where we stand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 And of course there's the usual GL lp to muck things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Scanning across the web seems the concensus is we still get to phase 7 and 8 in a week plus minus a day or two. Meanwhile the next several days should start to see some impacts to the modeling from the SSWE. True impacts seem uncertain still and I have read some Mets changing stance on not getting impacts to stating we will have impacts. Everything is in flux still. This is interesting though , the Sparta trend GIF which pushes the return of Westerlies back in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 In addition to above from Isotherm, just posted Posted 10 minutes ago The momentum response which many of us have been forecasting/discussing for weeks is occurring -- strong FT surge, EAMT rising rapidly, and AAM tendency, rising sharply. This coinciding w/ MJO propagation through dateline. The much advertised tropospheric alterations in progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 around this time last year, the potomac was starting to freeze over. that stretch of cold temps was brutal. pretty remarkable difference between last year and this year so far, though last year we ended up not doing well in the snow dept. maybe this year it's flip flopped. mild start, but snowier finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I continue to believe that Jan 19-21 will be a turning point and after that, several more winter storm chances will appear. Got to remember that most of Jan 2010 was awful with the first snow of the series on 30th. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Ggem shows a severe snow jan 9 10...bob chili storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Dont know about you guys but I'm epically bored rn 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Dont know about you guys but I'm epically bored rn The flooding warm rain every other day doesn't interest you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Dont know about you guys but I'm epically bored rn Only 20 more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: Ggem shows a severe snow jan 9 10...bob chili storm I'd be more interested in it if 1) if it wasnt the cmc and 2) the entire global atmosphere wasnt aligned completely against allowing it to snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Only 20 more days Until i have to mow my lawn? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, dailylurker said: The flooding warm rain every other day doesn't interest you? It was nice the first 20-30 events. But the recent 20 or so events just dont do it for me anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 Hope you like inland runners as the UKMET says the storm next week is yet another runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Yes no model had a true coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I'll save you all the suspense of the 12z Fv3. It sucks unless you like light rain and march temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 I'll save you all the suspense of the 12z Fv3. It sucks unless you like light rain and march temps.March is the only time it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll save you all the suspense of the 12z Fv3. It sucks unless you like light rain and march temps. Are you ready to jump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll save you all the suspense of the 12z Fv3. It sucks unless you like light rain and march temps. March is the only time it snows We're fast approaching the point of winter where you'll look back in 6 weeks and wonder why TF you stayed invested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Are you ready to jump?Yes he is. Psu is next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 SOME hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 We're fast approaching the point of winter where you'll look back in 6 weeks and wonder why TF you stayed invested. Our quest for an epic winter is over...now our goal is 2-4 inch event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: Are you ready to jump? No, not all all. I might melt and troll the F out of this place tho and keep it up until it looks promising inside of a reasonable amount of lead time. So i guess i'm saying its time to prepare and dust off the ledge and pile up broken glass and rusty nails in the landing area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 SOME hope When we looked at gefs this morning it had a great look but still warm....but this is more appropriate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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