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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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@Ji you have had 2 warning events and it’s not even the half way point of our snow climo yet in a winter where the second half is supposed to be the better half. Oh and you were having this mini melt down with 10” of snow in your yard. Maybe you need to reboot whatever part of your brain is responsible for PERSPECTIVE!!!

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And Ji doesn't look anything like I envisioned. 

This is more of what I thought he looked like. I literally thought this was Ji the entire time based on the YouTube videos

Screenshot_20190112-190125_YouTube.jpg

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And while the rest of November is likely to remain snow-free, there are indications of good things to come for snow lovers, as Hatem predicted in a post last week:
There are strong indicators right now that December could be fun.”
 
Ooooohhh, they can't all be the right calls, Ji. Close, though!
We were 50 miles from an epic dec. Anyway....every weenie in this forum forecasts for his friends and relatives. I didn't even start this page and I dont talk about it...promote it or share it. It just kind of took off..its an albatross
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ooooohhh, they can't all be the right calls, Ji. Close, though!
We were 50 miles from an epic dec. Anyway....every weenie in this forum forecasts for his friends and relatives. I didn't even start this page and I dont talk about it...promote it or share it. It just kind of took off..its an albatross

proud of you, man

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4 hours ago, RockabilyJunior said:

I know the verification scores are low for the CMC, and that it often doesn't agree with the other models, but it seems to me that if anything, it's a little too snow/cold happy for our area compared to other models. Can anyone confirm or rebut? I don't really ever get my hopes up for a storm until the CMC shows something, even if most of them don't pan out. This is all speculation though based on 5 or so years of following this forum, and I'm curious what others have to say.

I'm not sure if anyone replied to this, but here are my 2 cents.  The GGEM is a decent model, with verification scores comparable to the GFS in the winter.   On average, I believe it has a wet bias.  But those scores are averages that smooth over a lot of day to day variation.  (For example, yesterday it wasn't wet enough.)  Rather than pin your hopes on any one model, I think it's best to consider the range of possibilities shown by all of the top models, with more weight given to those (like the Euro) that tend to do better on average. 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

well this is crap man because the great looking weeklies from 2 weeks ago had 3 week and week 4 as epic. The last week of January should of been epic. Not cutters. So now your telling me we have to wait till feb for snow lol

Yo it just snowed

I've been sledding for hours

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21 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ooooohhh, they can't all be the right calls, Ji. Close, though!
We were 50 miles from an epic dec. Anyway....every weenie in this forum forecasts for his friends and relatives. I didn't even start this page and I dont talk about it...promote it or share it. It just kind of took off..its an albatross

They're not serious

Honestly, disseminating the analysis of this board is a welcome service

You're obviously not the only one

Probably you know that but just saying

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2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Nothing like having access to all that when I am in the part of the forum that got pretty screwed yesterday and listening to a meltdown from someone who has 40,000 followers on facebook who just cashed in with nearly a foot of snow. Uncanny, having that access, really.

At least your area was modeled to get somewhat screwed, esp on part 2.

All guidance yesterday morning continued to advertise my yard in the sweet spot for the coastal CCB and great banding. I didn't get a single flake. :yikes:

Maybe I need to get busy trolling the ungrateful too.:P

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ooooohhh, they can't all be the right calls, Ji. Close, though!
We were 50 miles from an epic dec. Anyway....every weenie in this forum forecasts for his friends and relatives. I didn't even start this page and I dont talk about it...promote it or share it. It just kind of took off..its an albatross

We know and we silently follow it. People really get excited about snow on your FB page. Really amazing! Congrats!

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30 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ooooohhh, they can't all be the right calls, Ji. Close, though!
We were 50 miles from an epic dec. Anyway....every weenie in this forum forecasts for his friends and relatives. I didn't even start this page and I dont talk about it...promote it or share it. It just kind of took off..its an albatross

I enjoy your page. It's a nice summary when I don't have time to puruse the forum.

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38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji you have had 2 warning events and it’s not even the half way point of our snow climo yet in a winter where the second half is supposed to be the better half. Oh and you were having this mini melt down with 10” of snow in your yard. Maybe you need to reboot whatever part of your brain is responsible for PERSPECTIVE!!!

When was his first warning event? I thought you guys had been shutout since November.

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Interesting read from Mount Holly on the weekend event from their afternoon AFD-

For Friday through Monday...A split flow regime results in energy ejecting into the central and southern Plains while northern stream energy amplifies some across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. An initial short wave in the southern stream should drive a weaker system across our area Thursday night and Friday with some rain/snow showers possible. The stronger energy then arrives over the weekend. The timing of the northern and southern systems will be key regarding the end results here in the East, as some guidance phases them faster and therefore the surface low tracks over or just west of our area. Some timing differences exist which plays a role in the surface low track. The evolving pattern looks to favor more of a delayed interaction with the surface low tracking farther south and east, however this is of lower confidence which also reduces the confidence regarding the precipitation types. Thermal profiles at this point utilizing a multi-model blend introduces a wintry mix for much of the region. One thing to continue noting is that the guidance is suggesting that a decent moisture plume gets pulled northward with this system. The potential for heavy rain, snow and/or mixed precipitation exists with this system, especially if the forward motion slows. The signal for this storm remains high among the model guidance, therefore increased the PoPs into the likely range for the weekend. The latest guidance has trended a bit farther north with this system, however a wintry mix is still expected to impact the entire area at some point Saturday and Sunday. An arctic airmass will surge southward in the wake of the weekend system Sunday night into Monday.

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