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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I think that means that if the Friday storm is stronger, which it has been trending stronger then it will weaken the SE ridge and allow for a more south track and snowier solution. But the bigger player here is the TPV.

Yep and I think a stronger Friday storm would translate into a better 50/50 low too.  

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Quick glance but I like where we stand for the weekend storm. Big player on what we get is going to be the Friday system and it's progression and strength. 

PNA ridge axis too. It’s been trending west which favors a west track.

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LWX AFD from last night, did a really good job discussing the Thursday/Friday and into the weekend threat. Apologies for the length. 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Wednesday, a strong upper level low will move to the north
over eastern Canada and New England on Wednesday. A surface low
associated with the upper level disturbance is expected to move
through eastern Canada and New England. A weak frontal boundary
associated with this low will extend down into the mid-Atlantic.
It seems the best areas for the formation of precipitation
associated with this boundary will be up in Pennsylvania and New
England. Some models are showing some potential for up slope
induced showers over our western mountains due to a westerly
flow and the weak boundary moving through our region. Behind
this frontal boundary, we expect cooler air to be transported
into the region due to a northwesterly flow. Daytime
temperatures continue to trend upwards on Wednesday up into the
low to mid 40s with overnight temps in 20s.

 Thursday into Friday, a 500mb shortwave will move through our
region Thursday into Friday. A weak low pressure system will
form over the upper Midwest and move into our region during this
period. The models are disagreeing on when this system will
affect the region. The 00z Euro tends to be slightly quicker
than the 12Z GFS and has most of the precipitation moving in
from the west. The 12Z GFS phases the western low with a coastal
low early on Friday leading to precipitation building in from
the south. As cold air could be in place ahead of this system,
there will be the potential for some snow forming and moving
through the region. Snow showers will be focused over the
Northern Maryland and Western Virginia areas while a rain and
snow mix will be more likely over southern Maryland and central
Virginia. The question for this system will be how much cold air
gets locked into the system after Wednesday`s system.

On Saturday, the low will move out late Friday into early
Saturday leading to a lull in precipitation between systems. A
strong upper level trough will shift eastward from the Midwest
toward out area Saturday into Sunday. The system that will
affect our region this upcoming weekend could potential drop
more snow on our area. As cold air may remain locked into our
region ahead of the approaching mid- latitude surface low
pressure system. The 00Z European keeps cold air locked into our
region while the GFS initially has temperatures warming into
the low 40s before dropping as winds become northwesterly. The
European would be very snowy while the GFS would start as rain
and finish as snow. The bulk of the precipitation would be late
Saturday and continue into Sunday.
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2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

6z EPS (won’t ever get used to that) do not look good for the weekend system.  PV phases in and drives the storm west.  Hopefully they and the op are too amped.

This post above is probably a good indication we are going to get shellacked

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With a split flow and the TPV pretty close by and spinning off lobes, uncertainty with this system remains high. The pattern will be evolving to colder, but not quite there yet. If there is an (early) phase with a NS lobe, that would likely cause the storm to track too far NW with the advertised look in the W Atlantic. If things time up better (later), could see a more favorable southern track. This has the look of a messy/mixy event on the ensembles.

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12 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

6z EPS (won’t ever get used to that) do not look good for the weekend system.  PV phases in and drives the storm west.  Hopefully they and the op are too amped.

few things

1. there is no 06z EPS

2. 06z and 18z Euro only go out to hr90

3. 00z EPS is pretty good this far out for your backyard

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