SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Thursday night/Friday event looks more amped on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 CMC and GFS look like they are trying to improve the end of the week For sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s a cold and stormy look. In that particular case we might need that little bit of war to keep storms from being squashed That look is almost exactly like week 3 or 4 from the Euro weeklies, but here it appears the GEFS pushes it up in time. Maybe a little less blocking in the EPO domain. Big tiime WOOF with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECsnowflake Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 53 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: I've got a flight for a cruise on the 26th. I know those insanely low temps won't verify, but I certainly wouldn't be thrilled to have an empty house all week w/such low temps I hear you! Sadly for my husband, he is being abandoned for my girls' trip, so he will be holding down the fort and saving the pipes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, frd said: That look is almost exactly like week 3 or 4 from the Euro weeklies, but here it appears the GEFS pushes it up in time. Maybe a little less blocking in the EPO domain. Big tiime WOOF with that look. It's pretty crazy that we just 'boom'd' and had a storm bullseye the subforum with everything breaking in our favor in the last 24 hours....and this all came on the front end of the pattern flip BEFORE the epic looks take hold over NA. The looks on the LR ensembles match the epic looks on the weeklies and seasonal guidance which gives confidence we'll see those advertised patterns. WOOF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Icon for end week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I got a pretty good kick out of the 6z FV3 showing rain and 57 degrees at 1 AM next Sunday, then 25 degrees and heavy ice/snow by 7 AM. Then later in the run had temps around -15 LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Beachin said: Icon for end week Looks just like GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: It's pretty crazy that we just 'boom'd' and had a storm bullseye the subforum with everything breaking in our favor in the last 24 hours....and this all came on the front end of the pattern flip BEFORE the epic looks take hold over NA. The looks on the LR ensembles match the epic looks on the weeklies and seasonal guidance which gives confidence we'll see those advertised patterns. WOOF. Interesting the GEFS overall has more support for colder solutions for the event next weekend, versus some other models. Maybe more clarity in a couple days. But, the hammer looks to drop after this. Like seeing the SOI at Daily contribution to SOI calculation -9.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: Interesting the GEFS overall has more support for colder solutions for the event next weekend, versus some other models. Maybe more clarity in a couple days. But, the hammer looks to drop after this. Like seeing the SOI at Daily contribution to SOI calculation -9.04 GEFS was consistently snowier than EPS for today's storm which turned out correct. Weenie handbook says to trust it more for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: GEFS was consistently snowier than EPS for today's storm which turned out correct. Weenie handbook says to trust it more for next weekend. Until it flips then trust the other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 12z GFS day 9 into day 10 surface map is just silly. And its arctic cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Is it weird that idgas about tracking the 1-3" later this week? Snow on snow is cool but i won't be staying up for the euro until later tonight 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Is it weird that idgas about tracking the 1-3" later this week? Snow on snow is cool but i won't be staying up for the euro until later tonight 1-3" sandwiched between a warning event and multiple potential MECS/HECS is just a stats padder. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I'm feeling like it won't be snow on snow. At least by me, I think it'll be warm enough this week to erase most of this 5 inches by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s a cold and stormy look. In that particular case we might need that little bit of war to keep storms from being squashed. Thanks...appreciate it. Didnt know if the compressed look would allow systems to amplify? Regardless...The potential thru the foreseeable future is through the roof... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Is it weird that idgas about tracking the 1-3" later this week? Snow on snow is cool but i won't be staying up for the euro until later tonight Haha! Yeah, kind of reminiscent of the "Groundhog Day" Feb. 2 snow we got right before the two big HECSs shortly after! I don't know how many people were really caring much about that at the time, even though we got ~5" out of it (and it was very pretty, similar to today's snow)! Not saying I think next weekend and the following week is a "guarantee" by any means, but man, that signal for *something* big is there. If it weren't for the fact that my power would probably go out in this situation, I'd think (if it can't be all snow) it would be cool to get heavy snow followed by glacier/ice followed by wrap-around snow, then very cold! That would be damn near epic. Hell with it, I've got plenty of blankets and will have a fully charged phone, screw it if the power were to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: I'm feeling like it won't be snow on snow. At least by me, I think it'll be warm enough this week to erase most of this 5 inches by Friday. That's why you set an alarm for 1am and spend the wee hours shoveling all the snow from the neighbor's yard into yours. This is an advanced weenie strategy that is only taught at ivy league weenie schools 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1103 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2019 VALID 12Z WED JAN 16 2019 - 12Z SUN JAN 20 2019 ..CALIFORNIA HEAVY PRECIPITATION WED-THU ...COLD AIR SURGES THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. LATER THIS WEEK... ..CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HEAVY RAIN/SNOW THREAT NEXT WEEKEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Love the dark blues and pinks ! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's why you set an alarm for 1am and spend the wee hours shoveling all the snow from the neighbor's yard into yours. This is an advanced weenie strategy that is only taught at ivy league weenie schools Hahaha I have a lot to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Is it weird that idgas about tracking the 1-3" later this week? Snow on snow is cool but i won't be staying up for the euro until later tonight If you don't want it, you can send it down my way.,, 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 DC proper about to get a death band! Radar kind of blossoming the last half hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 The banding near dc should head north very soon per hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 42 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Until it flips then trust the other models... The GEFS actually picked up this weekend snow before the EPS. The EPS was the hold out and it flipped around Tuesday, I believe, and then stayed course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's why you set an alarm for 1am and spend the wee hours shoveling all the snow from the neighbor's yard into yours. This is an advanced weenie strategy that is only taught at ivy league weenie schools Excuse me. But that’s an advanced honors g/t class only taught at one University in the country. JEBMAN UNIVERSITY! cc @Jebman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 GEFS looks solid for the weekend. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Man I wish I had been able to fully enjoy this event but I was puking my brains out all night. Still it was awesome to see this much snow for my first time ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS looks solid for the weekend. That’s a slug of polar air chasing a storm off the coast to our south look, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, North Balti Zen said: That’s a slug of polar air chasing a storm off the coast to our south look, right? Definitely some cold air behind that storm and probably colder air after the storm after that. Timing the cold air with the storm track is obviously key to this weekend. Certainly some cutter risk, but even a cutter could provide frontside or backside frozen if things work out. This Friday's storm and the associated northern stream low are pretty key to setting the boundary location that the weekend storm will ride along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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