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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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I hate the GFS.  Why cant it play along.   That being said, this storm today was supposed to be rain.
Its being replaced for a reason

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
I hate the GFS.  Why cant it play along.   That being said, this storm today was supposed to be rain.

Its being replaced for a reason

question is, is it's replacement better or worse?

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23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The whole setup late next week reminds me very much of jan/feb 2014. WARs usually screw us until the run we had in 14-15. Does the tpv do it again for us? I'm not making any guesses a week out. 

Now this "TPV" (what is that, btw?)...is that a bigger piece of the equation where we'll know what it's gonna do by like Tuesday or Wednesday? Or is it a feature that can't be nailed down until we get even closer?

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question is, is it's replacement better or worse?
Most if the good models look more like fv3 than gfs for this weekend
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16 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs favors rain d8-9 but a long ways to go and we already had one event flip from easy rain to cold powder. Even a mixed event would be great. Anything but 100% rain

We haven't had a good ol' fashioned rain-to-snow event in awhile...If it can't be all snow, I'd certainly take that!!

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now this "TPV" (what is that, btw?)...is that a bigger piece of the equation where we'll know what it's gonna do by like Tuesday or Wednesday? Or is it a feature that can't be nailed down until we get even closer?

The tropospheric polar vortex or the big blue ball @ 500mb. No chance the placement of the tpv is nailed down until into the mid range. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's great but it also includes this weekend's event.

Thanks Bob. 

Listen......................................if you build it they will come .....

I hope you are ready to track !!!!!!!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_43.png

 

4243CD7F-F6B8-44FE-AF22-919CE052476D.gif

 

 

 

 

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Interesting in regards to the coupling. 

re

What I notice most is the persistence of the Atlantic ridge (300-350°E), which appears to be driven by forcing in the troposphere, from the downstream impact of the amplified pattern over N America... which *is* coupled with the stratospheric vortex pattern (the Canadian vortex).

 
 
Direct message

and 

####------------------------------------ Polar vortex status ------------------------------------###

The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! 

The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -7.0 m/s 

Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -3.7 m/s 2013 

Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 64.6 m/s 2009 

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41 minutes ago, Ji said:
46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Yea that's my take too. The pattern the next 10 days is dependent on the tpv location and where the boundary sets up.  Rain is a risk for any system that amps up to our west if that tpv isn't pressing enough.  But it can work and its active looking.
 After that as the atl ridge retrogrades into a more classic west based block we should see a more typical snow vs no type setup ala 2010.  But if we can score a couple times before then and then get that type of pattern in Feb...!!!  That's how we can make a run at the kind of winter that might even make the "I need snow in December" crew happy.  
...Naw who am I kidding 

12z gfs....not sure how to say it but it brings alot of weather

This is going to be a lot of fun...right through into March me thinks. 

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37 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

question is, is it's replacement better or worse?

This is all just from observation but it doesn't seem to be any better in the long range and jumps around as bad as the old gfs (but that's not really the main goal of op models) but once into medium range it's been more consistent and it handles the thermal structure of synoptic systems way better. Just my 2 cents. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

but in case you want too

 

Ji, you might know this already, but beyond the 240 hour mark is it crazy. One oppurtunity after another. And,what about the cold temps. I really feel we are going to break below zero at some point moving forward. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

@Ji fv3 is straight out of the jan/feb 2014 playbook. Progressive thump followed by arctic air. Great for glaciating and pack retention 

AD88A42F-72EE-4333-963C-A9A8BF2974BB.gif

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

AD88A42F-72EE-4333-963C-A9A8BF2974BB.gif

Is that the FV3 snow map? It reminds me of that old DGEX run on 1/30/2010 that called for up to 48", and was almost spot on.

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@Ji fv3 is straight out of the jan/feb 2014 playbook. Progressive thump followed by arctic air. Great for glaciating and pack retention 

the models seem to have a 1-2 punch of rain/mix...then another storm forms on a front that is east of the first punch

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7 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Is that the FV3 snow map? It reminds me of that old DGEX run on 1/30/2010 that called for up to 48", and was almost spot on.

Yes, it is. Just shows the potential, thats all. 

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4 hours ago, Fozz said:

I know it’s Maine, but still the totals on that run are astonishing. We just need to somehow bring that 48”+ zone down to MD and VA.

Enter the 12z FV3 GFS :o 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

the FV3 at 204 hour  is sick

DC is like ground ZERO , the prayers may have been answered.  

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