Jump to content
nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

18z gefs favors rain d8-9 but a long ways to go and we already had one event flip from easy rain to cold powder. Even a mixed event would be great. Anything but 100% rain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs favors rain d8-9 but a long ways to go and we already had one event flip from easy rain to cold powder. Even a mixed event would be great. Anything but 100% rain

Unfortunately with the war being shown across guidance I would favor rain att. But get a well placed vort there or nudge the PV southeast a tad and suddenly we're in business. But man the look towards feb keeps moving closer to the epic weeklies and seasonal guidance look.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know we are focused on this event but serious cold is headed our way late in the GFS run.  Like run out of negative departure color pallet cold.  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 50/50 low is not in the right spot for this event and there is an area of +height anomalies off the Mid Atlantic and New England Coast that will not be easy to work around. A rain to snow event kind of like the GFS is showing might be favored in that kind of pattern. It looks similar to 2013-2014 where we got a number of those.

 

n516jHJ.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 8-10 shows up with a pretty large snowstorm... pretty nice to look at.  Nice HP in position as the SLP goes by... subtract 4-6" from this and you get the snowstorm total of Day 8-10... it is also 15-25 degrees with the snow falling across the region

ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_41.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, nj2va said:

Wow at the Euro again. About 2’ for DC. As I said earlier today the big ones are sniffed early. Maybe this is one of them. 

Don't forget to subtract 4-6 for today's storm ;)... still 16" or so is very nice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, yoda said:

Don't forget to subtract 4-6 for today's storm ;)... still 16" or so is very nice

It’s semantics. SV has DC 10 day snowfall at 27” so I was going off that. Regardless, it’s a great OP run. Just one of many solutions that will be offered. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If that cold pool over eastern Canada is as deep and widespread as ECM advertises, then the jet will respond with a deep trough as shown on the day 8 panel, with any luck that low will follow a good track and bring a huge snowfall. The GFS has some wild and wacky looking looping lows out in the Atlantic at a similar time frame, not seeing quite how that shape of troughing would respond to the large-scale pattern, but GEM on the other hand just blindly produces a cutter for no obvious reason. This may be the first of three or four big storms after the impending medium sized event. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

If that cold pool over eastern Canada is as deep and widespread as ECM advertises, then the jet will respond with a deep trough as shown on the day 8 panel, with any luck that low will follow a good track and bring a huge snowfall. The GFS has some wild and wacky looking looping lows out in the Atlantic at a similar time frame, not seeing quite how that shape of troughing would respond to the large-scale pattern, but GEM on the other hand just blindly produces a cutter for no obvious reason. This may be the first of three or four big storms after the impending medium sized event. 

Seriously?? Wow...could be fun tracking ahead!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Decent look...I though eps trended better but still too warm for my liking2f74d4af24ecdde6a1312f53a8b5264e.jpg&key=09c188af2c37ca438f1d2b6dc42efc296a29f51bcae2481b786f4883cf4db924

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ji said:

Decent look...I though eps trended better but still too warm for my liking2f74d4af24ecdde6a1312f53a8b5264e.jpg&key=09c188af2c37ca438f1d2b6dc42efc296a29f51bcae2481b786f4883cf4db924

 

 

Don't really want +height anomalies over the Maritimes, but the TPV is a wildcard with this potential event, and there is time for adjustments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mattie g said:

So...congrats, Maine?

:tomato:

I know it’s Maine, but still the totals on that run are astonishing. We just need to somehow bring that 48”+ zone down to MD and VA.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:

Icon has a 1045 high near Michigan

The whole setup late next week reminds me very much of jan/feb 2014. WARs usually screw us until the run we had in 14-15. Does the tpv do it again for us? I'm not making any guesses a week out. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The whole setup late next week reminds me very much of jan/feb 2014. WARs usually screw us until the run we had in 14-15. Does the tpv do it again for us? I'm not making any guesses a week out. 

Yes I too have learned my lesson with living and dying by op runs or even ensemble runs a week or more out.  This event today look like a strong cold front with rain 10 days ago.  we have come a long way since then.  Even two days ago this event was looking like 1-3/2-4..still may be but thinking it will beat that estimate at the 11th hour!.   Only going to look at the strategic view meaning h5 for North America.  Even that can be deceiving. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The whole setup late next week reminds me very much of jan/feb 2014. WARs usually screw us until the run we had in 14-15. Does the tpv do it again for us? I'm not making any guesses a week out. 

Yea that's my take too. The pattern the next 10 days is dependent on the tpv location and where the boundary sets up.  Rain is a risk for any system that amps up to our west if that tpv isn't pressing enough.  But it can work and its active looking.

 After that as the atl ridge retrogrades into a more classic west based block we should see a more typical snow vs no type setup ala 2010.  But if we can score a couple times before then and then get that type of pattern in Feb...!!!  That's how we can make a run at the kind of winter that might even make the "I need snow in December" crew happy.  

...Naw who am I kidding 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yea that's my take too. The pattern the next 10 days is dependent on the tpv location and where the boundary sets up.  Rain is a risk for any system that amps up to our west if that tpv isn't pressing enough.  But it can work and its active looking.
 After that as the atl ridge retrogrades into a more classic west based block we should see a more typical snow vs no type setup ala 2010.  But if we can score a couple times before then and then get that type of pattern in Feb...!!!  That's how we can make a run at the kind of winter that might even make the "I need snow in December" crew happy.  
...Naw who am I kidding 
12z gfs....not sure how to say it but it brings alot of weather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×