North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, redskinsnut said: How is it 10 degrees and dumping snow at epic rates at the same time that there are rain concerns? Because there are members of the ensemble that cut the storm to our west and we rain. The ensemble members show the range of possibilities. A cutter and rain is definitely one of the possibilities. As is the bomb the op has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Seems like it's gonna be harder to get a big one before the pattern really gets going, isn't it? Seems like it's safe to assume cutter unless we see more frozen outcomes depicted by Monday or something...but I guess I'll keep one eye on it, lol Nothing definitive can ever be said about a storm 8+ days away. All we know is there's probably going to be a fairly strong storm during that time. Mostl likely track/ptype and all that can be figured out over the next 3-5 days. It's not nearly as good a setup as Jan 2016 or either Feb 2010 storms. Those were much easier to figure out with the track. Lots of moving pieces on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, redskinsnut said: How is it 10 degrees and dumping snow at epic rates at the same time that there are rain concerns? What side of the front you end up on..southerly or northerly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, redskinsnut said: How is it 10 degrees and dumping snow at epic rates at the same time that there are rain concerns? The ensemble of different versions of ECM contain solutions that track further north and mix the precip. If the map you're referring to is accurate, no mixing concerns, would buy ear plugs for the deafening thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, redskinsnut said: How is it 10 degrees and dumping snow at epic rates at the same time that there are rain concerns? One model op output vs. Ensemble runs showing lots of rainy outcomes. The op run, as shown, is not rain. But it is only one of many possible outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Because there are members of the ensemble that cut the storm to our west and we rain. The ensemble members show the range of possibilities. A cutter and rain is definitely one of the possibilities. As is the bomb the op has. I see thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where did snowstorm5921 go? He absconded 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 These panels say it all. EPS has a ridge in the western atlantic 50/50 region. For us to get a good snow event we need low pressure/confluence in that spot. The euro op had both a -nao and a 50/50 low + confluence. There's just no way to accurately know how that's going to break. Have a 50/50 + neg nao and odds of snow go way up. Have a western atlantic ridge and expect rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, redskinsnut said: How is it 10 degrees and dumping snow at epic rates at the same time that there are rain concerns? Because the possibility of a cutter is very much on the table. When a storm "cuts" inland, we end up on the warm side of it. That's why temps can surge to 50, but then afterward...it's cold again. Overly simplified explanation, but I think that's the gist of it (other more knowledgeable posters, please feel free to chime in!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Bob, Do you or any anyone else know if there have ever been any studies that show that one perturbed member of GEFS has been more reliable than another? Or am I not understanding how the ensembles work? I think this was sort of already answered...sorry, just catching up in this thread...but I'll add a couple of things if I may. Basically, ensembles are perturbed members of the base model, and run typically at lower resolution from the operational deterministic version. How the perturbations are done varies from one model ensemble to the next (e.g., GFS, ECMWF, CMCE, etc.), but they all try to do the same thing...that is, show a range of possible solutions by accounting for various errors (the perturbations) that could be in the regular deterministic run. In *theory*, you would like to get all possible ranges of solutions, but of course in *practice* that's not possible (would be essentially infinite solutions!). So various techniques have been developed by different centers...the temperatures may be perturbed, or the pressure/height field, or the physics of the model itself. I can't recall how each model center does theirs offhand. If you have more ensemble members in the suite, that should give you a better idea of the spread around the mean. But just given the fact that you can only have a finite number of ensemble members, and the fact that they're all based on the "same model", you do tend to get what Bob and others call "hive mentality"...i.e., there are many times the ensembles tend to "look a lot like" their parent deterministic model. However, in general, the ensemble mean is a far better estimate for medium to longer range (I think most consider them useful up to 72 hours out?) than a single deterministic model and a single ensemble member. To also partly answer another of your questions, I don't believe there's any tendency for one ensemble member to be "better" than the others over time (though of course, a single one can end up being correct in the end). The ensemble spread is a good thing to look at too, not just the mean. If the spread is very tight around the mean, that lends more confidence than if they're all over the place. Likewise, it can give you a clue as to whether the parent deterministic model is an outlier, such as if it's on the extreme edge or outside the envelope of the ensemble spread. Oh, and when people talk about the "control" run, that's basically a low-resolution unperturbed version of the deterministic (so it's essentially the same as the ops, but lower res). Sorry for the long-winded explanation, but hope it helps! And hope I'm reasonably accurate here, others probably know far more on the nuances of the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, redskinsnut said: I see thank you If you were referring specifically to the op run, I would say although that sort of temp gradient can occur in strong coastal storms, it likely would not be as extreme as depicted. Its not likely going to be 10 in the burbs of DC and 35 in Dover. Op run at D10 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Because the possibility of a cutter is very much on the table. When a storm "cuts" inland, we end up on the warm side of it. That's why temps can surge to 50, but then afterward...it's cold again. Overly simplified explanation, but I think that's the gist of it (other more knowledgeable posters, please feel free to chime in!) We can also, depending on the antecedent cold, end up with quite a good thump of front-end snow, then perhaps ice/sleet, then a dry slot or drizzle or light rain that doesn't totally destroy all the snow that had fallen. And then, as you say, it gets cold afterward typically. A good example of solid front-end followed by drizzle was Feb. 2014...many areas got a foot, even more, overnight. It then warmed into the mid-30s and we had light drizzle most of the remainder of that day, and we actually got some CCB wrap-around snow at the end late day and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: The ECM shift to a southern track is plausible, and the GFS concept of chain of lows along a front fails to separate the 19th and 21st energy peaks from my research point of view, so if I blend a better separated GFS with this ECM track, I think you are in the hunt for the jackpot that seems inevitable with the 21st energy peak. More chance of it shifting back north than any further south, it is a finely tuned sports car low that the ECM advertises, and 15-30" certainly in its specs, would toss the 40" though, this is not 1888 and western CT. We had 24-36” in 1 storm in this area in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: We had 24-36” in 1 storm in this area in 2016. There were places around FDK and eastern WV that got 40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: These panels say it all. EPS has a ridge in the western atlantic 50/50 region. For us to get a good snow event we need low pressure/confluence in that spot. The euro op had both a -nao and a 50/50 low + confluence. There's just no way to accurately know how that's going to break. Have a 50/50 + neg nao and odds of snow go way up. Have a western atlantic ridge and expect rain. too early to give up....i think the good pattern is speeding up....with that being said..i expect a 987 in youngstown ohio at 00z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 27 minutes ago, redskinsnut said: I see thank you Because it depends on if the northern branch shortwave gets out ahead of the main storm. Bad timing and you don’t build the HP in the ideal spot and heights get pumped out ahead of the low. The Euro OP is pretty much the best case scenario and what can happen if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I think a lot of it comes down to snowcover. If we can do well in this first storm, I can't see it raining later and there are some strong lows lined up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 People saying this EPS run is the weeniest of the season? Even after MLK day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: People saying this EPS run is the weeniest of the season? Even after MLK day? 360 looks pretty pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: People saying this EPS run is the weeniest of the season? Even after MLK day? Words do no justice !! Storms, below zero cold, cross polar flow, more cold !!! The FV3 at long lead has single digit temps to the Gulf Coast. Also new UkMet seasonal just out, wow , Nothern Mid Atlantic and the NE target zero for DEEP winter !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: People saying this EPS run is the weeniest of the season? Even after MLK day? id rather get the Kocin out of the way early and see what happens next 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: These panels say it all. EPS has a ridge in the western atlantic 50/50 region. For us to get a good snow event we need low pressure/confluence in that spot. The euro op had both a -nao and a 50/50 low + confluence. There's just no way to accurately know how that's going to break. Have a 50/50 + neg nao and odds of snow go way up. Have a western atlantic ridge and expect rain. In the southeast, I'd certainly agree with that. That's how we scored down here in December, we had a nice junkyard 50/50 confluence to do work. I think that's the missing ingredient for our forum at least, that WAR has to go. We get a real true -NAO and I think everybody scores. Something like week 4 of the weeklies showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I did a map of Jan/Feb's in the first part of 2-year El Nino events, The signal was +AAM, which is a Low pressure and High pressure balance over the Pacific and Atlantic as the two dominant anomalies in the Hemisphere. This is exactly what 12z ensembles show: (51-53, 86-88, 14-16). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Plenty of fantasy storms and arctic air on the 18z gfs op. We wont hit every time but there will be no tracking shortage for the foreseeable future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 18z GFS run is intense cold with numerous storms. Cutters seem have vanished. HL are a site to behold. A fantasy run for us weenies ! I never saw such impressive cold WITH storms. Not just cold and dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Nothing definitive can ever be said about a storm 8+ days away. All we know is there's probably going to be a fairly strong storm during that time. Mostl likely track/ptype and all that can be figured out over the next 3-5 days. It's not nearly as good a setup as Jan 2016 or either Feb 2010 storms. Those were much easier to figure out with the track. Lots of moving pieces on this one. I remember how the Jan 2016 storm locked in on the models at 8 days away. Never seen anything like that in my life before. Just run after run after run of perfect hits. Once in a lifetime experience to see such consistency with such a monumental hit come to fruition like it did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 18z gefs favors rain d8-9 but a long ways to go and we already had one event flip from easy rain to cold powder. Even a mixed event would be great. Anything but 100% rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs favors rain d8-9 but a long ways to go and we already had one event flip from easy rain to cold powder. Even a mixed event would be great. Anything but 100% rain Unfortunately with the war being shown across guidance I would favor rain att. But get a well placed vort there or nudge the PV southeast a tad and suddenly we're in business. But man the look towards feb keeps moving closer to the epic weeklies and seasonal guidance look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I know we are focused on this event but serious cold is headed our way late in the GFS run. Like run out of negative departure color pallet cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs favors rain d8-9 but a long ways to go and we already had one event flip from easy rain to cold powder. Even a mixed event would be great. Anything but 100% rain We’re either going to get tstorms or snow at this lead. Seriously. Either way I’m intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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