Snowstorm5921 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Jandurin said: you're right we should just cancel winter Not saying that, just saying the setup for the 20th isn’t looking as favorable at the moment. Plenty of time for changes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Yes I’m such a bad poster but everyone is looking at 0” of snow the last 2 months...not sure why everyone is acting like we’re guaranteed to get slammed going forward. GFS and Euro are in good agreement of the 20th being a cutter, and why go against persistence? A PV in central Canada is a bad look for east coast snow, period. It forces early phases. Hope it’s wrong but i wouldn’t be surprised to see ensembles shift in that direction if that PV placement is correct. So now you are counting all of November and early December as our snow season? Ok...….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Yes I’m such a bad poster but everyone is looking at 0” of snow the last 2 months...not sure why everyone is acting like we’re guaranteed to get slammed going forward. GFS and Euro are in good agreement of the 20th being a cutter, and why go against persistence? A PV in central Canada is a bad look for east coast snow, period. It forces early phases. Hope it’s wrong but i wouldn’t be surprised to see ensembles shift in that direction if that PV placement is correct. Nobody is "acting like we're guaranteed to get slammed" - You really should post a little less. you're contributing almost nothing to the discussion at this point. The 20th is 9 days away. Glad that because the GFS and Euro show something similar it's locked in to be a cutter. If you're so sure that we are cooked for the 20th - why don't you just stop posting until the next threat pops in. There's nothing wrong with discussion - but if you're just going to pollute threads with crap don't post at all. Ever wonder why you rarely see me in threads during the winter until it's the obs thread? Because I know I don't have much to add and I'd just clutter the threads. A high post count doesn't make for a smarter poster. Don't go for quantity over quality... I get it - we've all been there before. I was weenie tagged in the EUSWX days. Just take a step back... ETA: you aren't even in the right subforum...if you're going to come into a subforum outside of your region...you need to at least be courteous of the other members. I don't come derail discussions in the PA forums. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Not saying that, just saying the setup for the 20th isn’t looking as favorable at the moment. Plenty of time for changes though. Perhaps it would be better to just leave things open like that when you post (especially about something 9-10 days away) as suppose to getting down in the dumps with every unfavorable run--I know a bad image on any model can play to our subconscious fears/frustrations of "missing", but...try to keep a broader perspective, my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 How about everyone ignore the idiot who only posts to say things look bad w/o more insight? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 32 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Not saying that, just saying the setup for the 20th isn’t looking as favorable at the moment. Plenty of time for changes though. Yup, bad look here 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Yup, bad look here Sure, the ensembles paint a prettier picture which is to be expected this far out. All I’m saying is if the PV location is in central Canada, it’s going to be tough to snow. Have to hope that’s wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Snowstorm5921 said: Sure, the ensembles paint a prettier picture which is to be expected this far out. All I’m saying is if the PV location is in central Canada, it’s going to be tough to snow. Have to hope that’s wrong. Wut... That's now how that works. The ensembles are run with each member having slightly varied initial conditions. The ensembles don't automatically paint a better picture. Okay - I'm done. Thread can go back to normal programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Snowstorm5921 said: Sure, the ensembles paint a prettier picture which is to be expected this far out. All I’m saying is if the PV location is in central Canada, it’s going to be tough to snow. Have to hope that’s wrong. You don't make a lot of sense. So if you want to keep posting, I suggest you provide some meteorological support to your posts or I can start hiding all of them. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 44 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Yes I’m such a bad poster but everyone is looking at 0” of snow the last 2 months...not sure why everyone is acting like we’re guaranteed to get slammed going forward. GFS and Euro are in good agreement of the 20th being a cutter, and why go against persistence? A PV in central Canada is a bad look for east coast snow, period. It forces early phases. Hope it’s wrong but i wouldn’t be surprised to see ensembles shift in that direction if that PV placement is correct. By the end of this weekend many in this forum will be about where they should be (or better) for climo to this date and with an epic looking pattern ahead during our best snowfall climo part of the year. So your main point always seems to be "but we could fail". Really...thanks for that captain obvious. How bout we wait until we DO FAIL before we ruin our day and deb about it. Go back under whatever rock you crawled out of. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: You don't make a lot of sense. So if you want to keep posting, I suggest you provide some meteorological support to your posts or I can start hiding all of them. He lives way up in PA... northwest of Philly near Allentown. Not really close to our CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: You don't make a lot of sense. So if you want to keep posting, I suggest you provide some meteorological support to your posts or I can start hiding all of them. I’m not sure what’s not making sense. The ensembles arent going to lock on to where the PV is going to park 10 days out, so of course they will look better than an op run with it sitting in literally the most unfavorable spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowstorm5921 said: I’m not sure what’s not making sense. The ensembles arent going to lock on to where the PV is going to park 10 days out, so of course they will look better than an op run with it sitting in literally the most unfavorable spot. Well, neither is the OP at day 10. Little early to be fretting over the exact placement of such features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: I’m not sure what’s not making sense. The ensembles arent going to lock on to where the PV is going to park 10 days out, so of course they will look better than an op run with it sitting in literally the most unfavorable spot. Ok Chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Well, neither is the OP at day 10. Little early to be fretting over the exact placement of such features. I’m just pointing out the concern. It’s definitely the best chance so far this year for a warning level event but given how things have transpired thus far it’s hard not to worry about what could go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Sure, the ensembles paint a prettier picture which is to be expected this far out. All I’m saying is if the PV location is in central Canada, it’s going to be tough to snow. Have to hope that’s wrong. So you think it's a good idea to prefer the operational over the ensembles at day 8-9. Good to know. Truth is it COULD cut...that option is very much on the table, so is OTS, and your point about the PV location (although not all guidance agrees) is valid, BUT we all know that. No one thinks that threat is a lock. And the fact is you never have anything good to say, even in the face of some of the best runs in years you will pop up to say "but that might not happen" or "we will fail anyways". So nothing you say has any cred since all you ever do is pop in to say something negative no matter what the guidance actually looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, H2O said: How about everyone ignore the idiot who only posts to say things look bad w/o more insight? you've been overruled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I might be throwing a lit match onto a powder keg here...but I can't help but be curious: What is "BSR" that cranky mentions here? He seems to subtly be giving it more weight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 bering sea rule it's a thing he does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: He lives way up in PA... northwest of Philly near Allentown. Not really close to our CWA He keeps bringing up persistence when we are in the second winter season in a row that featured about as extreme a pattern flip as you will ever see...and in his case it lead to 40" in March last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 38 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: I’m just pointing out the concern. It’s definitely the best chance so far this year for a warning level event but given how things have transpired thus far it’s hard not to worry about what could go wrong. You do realize that he is a professional meteorologist. If you want to butt heads with somebody - probably going to lose that battle going up against a red tagger and people like psuhoffman and Bob Chill. Yes...we can fail. Glad you're taking the ops and claiming "persistence" - the fact is we have a snowfall enroute for this weekend...that alone has broken your persistence theory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z GGEM is unfortunately a cutter. GFS running. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 GFS will probably still be warm but definitely a more favorable evolution compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Snowstorm5921 said: GFS will probably still be warm but definitely a more favorable evolution compared to 6z. Oh you mean one OP run for more than a week away changed from it's last run? Color me shocked. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Today's GFS run shows improvement in the areas of higher heights moving onto Greenland as we near Jan 18 th, an improved look out West with a - EPO and West Coast ridging. Reading yesterday the NAO being forecasted for days 8 to 10 might trend more negative, and today the GFS does show that. Say what you want about SSWE Voodoo @poolz1 , hey just kidding, but it seems the downwell is modeled in more and more. Maybe that explains as you move out in time modeling will correct to greater blocking. ( Saw it today on the GFS ) Even move the time frame of the extreme looks of mid Feb to early Feb or even late Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Please don't let this thread become a debate about ops at 7+ day leads. That's about as stupid as an approach to whatever happens the next couple weeks. Especially after the last "rainstorm" is going to be a cold powder event. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 First post. I enjoy reading, but believe I have seen everyone get too emotional from time to time. As a native Marylander for 51 years, I would tell everyone to appreciate the snow we do get....we have gone through too many winters when there is nothing to track. From my hobbyist eye, at least we are in the game over the next month or so. (Referencing EURO weeklies, the AO, NAO, EPO, etc. for anyone wondering where I am coming from) so enjoy the ride. I plan to really enjoy my 2-4 inches tomorrow (yes, I know wrong thread.) Will make about 9 for Brunswick so far this year. PEACE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z gefs pretty unanimous with a strong storm signal d8-10. The faster solutions are mostly rain and the slower ones are either mixed or all snow. Timing appears to be key here. Some solutions have multiple waves as well. We're in shotgun mode with large spread so there's just no way to know how it will shake out yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Bob, Do you or any anyone else know if there have ever been any studies that show that one perturbed member of GEFS has been more reliable than another? Or am I not understanding how the ensembles work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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