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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Yeah, if DC doesn't see another flake aren't they at climo for the year?

This next storm does look like the classic warm wet then cold dry that we do so well here. Shouldn't be all that disappointing or shocking.

They need a few more inches to reach climo. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're right on the cusp of the progged -nao developing d10. Euro looks like it's going that way d10 and GEFS/EPS mostly agree. The nao is probably the most difficult teleconnection to forecast so models are normally pretty unstable leading in. If/when it gets going, guidance will be much more stable. 2 big rainstorms (if that's where we're going) in the next 10 days are going to make things a little edgy in here to put it lightly. 

Here is the rough outline for Ji's melt-

December- punted the whole month

January- punted 3 weeks, one good storm

February- epic blocking better deliver or chill, psu, and cape are getting trolled indefinitely

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah he has been talking about that for a while hasn't he?

Yes, he has.

He still seems very upbeat about late Jan and Feb, so time will tell.   ( to me late Jan is like maybe the 28th so I am not sure what date he was targeting for a Midwest blizzard )  

I bet he posts on that today, as he did say he would follow up.  ( I think he is member here too, as you know he posts only his feed I guess ) 

But, he needs to post here to save time really. Time is short you know to scan social media.  

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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That D9-10 storm tho. Now that's a cutter. GL blizzard and rain to N Maine.

The pattern is changing....the cutters are cutting farther West now. Thanks MJO.

 

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're right on the cusp of the progged -nao developing d10. Euro looks like it's going that way d10 and GEFS/EPS mostly agree. The nao is probably the most difficult teleconnection to forecast so models are normally pretty unstable leading in. If/when it gets going, guidance will be much more stable. 2 big rainstorms (if that's where we're going) in the next 10 days are going to make things a little edgy in here to put it lightly. 

So with that said it seems there is quite a bit of confidence that it locks in as a sustained neg NAO. Seems to contradict and I dont mean you or anyone personally. I would take the neg NAO unicorn with a grain of salt still until it is fully established. That's just my amateur conservative approach. I'm sure I'm wrong and way off base.

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

They need a few more inches to reach climo. 

Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area.

Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average.

 

This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area.

Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average.

This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY

I was talking about DCA, not northern Delaware. I need about 19-20 more inches to reach climo.

Also, you're the one who's been complaining more than almost anyone else in here.

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The pattern is changing....the cutters are cutting farther West now. Thanks MJO.

 

So with that said it seems there is quite a bit of confidence that it locks in as a sustained neg NAO. Seems to contradict and I dont mean you or anyone personally. I would take the neg NAO unicorn with a grain of salt still until it is fully established. That's just my amateur conservative approach. I'm sure I'm wrong and way off base.

I think seeing universal agreement at longer leads gives credence to progged -NAO. Any long range forecast can bust because we're a long ways away from that type of accuracy but seeing strong consensus and it's not moving further out in time is a good sign. 

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Models gotta show all the varieties at this point

Strong, cold high pressures or zero high pressure is the winter trend

keep showing 1035+ and we snow or  suppress. 1010 and they cut.

we had a slew of cutters plus  one suppressed and one worked out beyond perfect.

The thing I have found models The Best at is high pressure placements. Seeing strong highs portrayed in the right places seems to be the trend right now 

 

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2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

The euro OP usually has at least 1 run that is terrible throughout the entire run for any given medium range focus per storm threat.

Hopefully the Ensembles look better and more in line with our beloved UKMET

Not 12z. Very much in line with the op. Very few solutions do much in our area. Basically the storm is doing exactly what it should for the upper level setup leading in. 

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20 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area.

Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average.

 

This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY

 

 

 

 

What the **** happened to you? 

You need Apollo to help you get back your Eye of the Tiger.

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29 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area.

Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average.

This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY

you are funny. 

also, it's fare, not faire

and I need 23" or so to hit climo... 

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Just now, Ji said:

I never thought that on Jan 15, we would be looking at the long range and saying disaster

We were looking at a disaster on 1/1/19 and we just got close to a foot of snow. So it’s best if we punt and complain because that worked well for this past event. I’m not even kidding lol

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

We were looking at a disaster on 1/1/19 and we just got close to a foot of snow. So it’s best if we punt and complain because that worked well for this past event. I’m not even kidding lol

we are getting close to Ians sun angle season so we better come up big between Feb 1 and PD weekend. For me after, PD weekend, winter is pretty much over. You have to have a really special storm after that to get me excited. Most of our March storms end up unproducing

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Just now, Ji said:

we are getting close to Ians sun angle season so we better come up big between Feb 1 and PD weekend. For me after, PD weekend, winter is pretty much over. You have to have a really special storm after that to get me excited. Most of our March storms end up unproducing

pretty sure this is all season long, not just after Presidents Day. 

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