Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

fantasy land gfs shows how a WAR can help us as it brings a wave up that would be suppressed otherwise.  Great blocking after the 1/24 cutter.  

Lol...if the Jan 31 is sleet...i think you might even melt down.....I am excited man. Just tired of waiting. I want a winter where we get a La Nina in December and Nino for the rest of the winter.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Like I've always said.

If it's rain, it could be 300 hours out and it's a lock.  

Your 10" snowstorm the other day was rain at 300 hours lol  The big 2016 blizzard was a rainstorm on the euro at day 10.  The February storm in 2015 was a rainstorm at day 7.  Several of our snow events in 2014 were rain on the guidance from range.  

Rainstorms appear to be "locks" because overall the thermal boundary does seem to trend north not south from range on guidance.  Also there is a MUCH larger areal coverage of any storm that is rain.  And we typically don't closely follow the slight adjustments in a rainstorm that might mean .5 vs .75 qpf but they happen.  I have followed plenty of rainstorms for some reason or another...sometimes just to test out something with the models, and there are the same errors.  This is just perception bias.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Lol...if the Jan 31 is sleet...i think you might even melt down.....I am excited man. Just tired of waiting. I want a winter where we get a La Nina in December and Nino for the rest of the winter.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

 

 

It dumps 6-10" of snow first...so the sleet and freezing rain would just be to harden and protect our snowpack for the coming month!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Is that a triple phaser at the end of the GFS run?  Not sure I know how to spot one.  

Not really. The trough axis is so far west that it allows height rises in the east. Move the trough axis east and it's a suppressed look. It's not even that strong of a shortwave but it's able to tap abundant moisture from the pac and gulf and eject it our way. IMHO- the end of the run gfs solution is just random chaos during a large scale longwave pattern shift

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z GEFS backing down in frozen or trailing wave potential this weekend. Spread is tightening but not in a good way. I'm dropping any expectations on this one. One more day showing all or mostly rain and I'm out. 

Thankfully we banked this past storm or there would be lots of meltdowns (me included)!  A good storm buys a couple of weeks of crap.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

UKMET is a major snowstorm for the areas that were favored in 2013-14, so I'm hugging it.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml

UKMET

Subjectively Observed Bias
Geographical location of bias
Annual/Diurnal attribute
Submitted by
Date Submitted
Operational Implication
Suspected Cause
Seems better than GFS with forecast of phasing of systems in northern and southern branch of jet
North American middle latitudes
Anytime
NCEP WPC
Since fall of 2001
When GFS is showing phasing of systems beyond 84 hours, check UKMET to see if solution is consistent
GDAS ?

Weenie translation: blah blah blah UKMET "better than GFS blah blah beyond 84 hrs" :ph34r:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

This will not cut

i don't know that i buy the cutters, but i think app runner is an issue (though i suppose that classifies as a cutter).  it also doesn't look there's going to be ideal cad developing out ahead of it because of that southeast ridge.  it's a setup worth monitoring, but i could see how it could still be an apps runner even with the favored banana highs over top.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Fozz said:

UKMET is a major snowstorm for the areas that were favored in 2013-14, so I'm hugging it. Or more like clinging for dear life :lol:

Our area is famous for going on heaters with extended crap periods in between. If the weekend deal ends up morphing into a measurable event it will start to feel like it "just wants to snow". 13-14 is a prime example and Feb/Mar 2015 as well. I don't really like much about the weekend setup but there is still a path to victory. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It’s coming. 

A6EBA733-6371-4794-BFF3-BC1672DA5E35.png

I am interested to see what analogs start to pop up as the better look gets into range.  But going back over the last several days the flip of the NAO is not fixed in time around the 26th on the GEFS and making progress closer after it was initially stalling and delaying for a while.  The EPS has been consistently advertising that time for the flip.  

I am honestly not sure what a full latitude trough like that along with blocking would yield.  It's such a rare extreme pattern there aren't a lot of good analogs and I am curious what shows up.  After that as the PV weakens and heights rise across Canada we enter a more classic looking regime similar to 2010.  Should be fun.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Our area is famous for going on heaters with extended crap periods in between. If the weekend deal ends up morphing into a measurable event it will start to feel like it "just wants to snow". 13-14 is a prime example and Feb/Mar 2015 as well. I don't really like much about the weekend setup but there is still a path to victory. 

I recall a lot of talk in 2013-14 (especially the first half) about how the pattern wasn't all that great. The NAO sucked but the EPO was amazing, and normally it's not a reliable setup in our area, but somehow that winter ended up having more snowstorms than any other that I'm old enough to remember.

I think this weekend event will come down to luck in this less than stellar setup... seems like a classic "thread the needle" type of event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Fozz said:

I recall a lot of talk in 2013-14 (especially the first half) about how the pattern wasn't all that great. The NAO sucked but the EPO was amazing, and normally it's not a reliable setup, but somehow that winter ended up having more snowstorms than any other that I'm old enough to remember.

I think this weekend event will come down to luck in this less than stellar setup... seems like a classic "thread the needle" type of event.

A little fuzzy with specific details of 13-14 but I'm recalling periods in late Jan through Mar where long and mid range rain turned into snow as we got to shorter leads. The pattern in the long range was advertised to flip hostile multiple times but got pushed back from early Feb to the end of Mar. lol

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic
  • WxUSAF locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...