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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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Back in 1985 I think it was (I am getting kind of old these days) when we had a massive arctic surge, Jan 21, front hit overnight, dumped a couple inches of snow, fell to -2 then the high was 2 above then it fell to -14 which is the coldest I have ever personally experienced, along with northerly 35 mph wind gusts.

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38 minutes ago, RDM said:

A potentially feigned attempt to draw another analogy to this setup....   Comparing this to the world of fluid dynamics in rivers, where eddy currents form on the edge of whirlpools that's are then sucked downstream by the main flow of the river. In this case, the ULL at the bottom of the trough generates the lead wave as a byproduct of the ULL's rotation.  The lead wave is driven up the trough by the UL jet, while the main ULL digs in before moving on itself.  Does that make sense?  

Thanks guys. I see the 500 vor panels and understand what you are saying, but we’ve seen strung out looks many times before. the trailing wave thing just seems like it’s popping up in medium range. This upcoming weekend storm makes more sense as there is more forcing  with the cold ie better baroclinic zone for vorts to ride along but yesterday did not have such forcing yet in effect a similar result imo. (Yes I know it was a coastal) and it popped up in medium range. 

Here’s to strung out vorts. 

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41 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 


Funny....the coldest air I have ever experienced was in VT. 12 hours before the blizzard of 96 I was leaving Killington trying to beat the snow home. Bank clock in Rutland read -29. Once I hit Reading PA is was a serious white knuckler all the way to FDK.

 

I lived in Vermont for 7 years. Locals considered it a cold morning if the inside of your nose immediately froze when you went outside, which kicked in at around -15. That is a sensation you’ll never forget after you feel it once 

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1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Thanks, valuable contribution!

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Latest from NWS: 

A more 
significant storm will impact the region next weekend. Nearly all 
guidance (deterministic and ensemble) shows an amplifying longwave 
trough and strong surface low approaching from the southwest Saturday 
night into Sunday. The system appears to be quite dynamic in nature, 
and will produce a swath of substantial precipitation across the 
eastern third of the Continental U.S.. exact impacts locally will be highly 
dependent on the exact track that the surface low takes. If the 
storm tracks to our northwest, temperatures could potentially reach 
into the low 60s, while on the other hand if it tracks to our 
southeast we could be dealing with a major winter storm. If we end 
up on the warm side of the system, flooding could be a concern with 
high quantitative precipitation forecast amounts (eps and gefs ensemble means are both in excess of 
an inch) falling on whatever residual snowpack exists from this past 
weekend's storm. The last few model runs have been trending slightly 
warmer with the system, but it's far too early to make any kind of 
deterministic....blah blah

 

 

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1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Latest from NWS: 


A more 
significant storm will impact the region next weekend. Nearly all 
guidance (deterministic and ensemble) shows an amplifying longwave 
trough and strong surface low approaching from the southwest Saturday 
night into Sunday. The system appears to be quite dynamic in nature, 
and will produce a swath of substantial precipitation across the 
eastern third of the Continental U.S.. exact impacts locally will be highly 
dependent on the exact track that the surface low takes. If the 
storm tracks to our northwest, temperatures could potentially reach 
into the low 60s, while on the other hand if it tracks to our 
southeast we could be dealing with a major winter storm. If we end 
up on the warm side of the system, flooding could be a concern with 
high quantitative precipitation forecast amounts (eps and gefs ensemble means are both in excess of 
an inch) falling on whatever residual snowpack exists from this past 
weekend's storm. The last few model runs have been trending slightly 
warmer with the system, but it's far too early to make any kind of 
deterministic....blah blah


 

 

Like seeing then "blah blah" in an otherwise professional post, lolol

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9 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Latest from NWS: 


A more 
significant storm will impact the region next weekend. Nearly all 
guidance (deterministic and ensemble) shows an amplifying longwave 
trough and strong surface low approaching from the southwest Saturday 
night into Sunday. The system appears to be quite dynamic in nature, 
and will produce a swath of substantial precipitation across the 
eastern third of the Continental U.S.. exact impacts locally will be highly 
dependent on the exact track that the surface low takes. If the 
storm tracks to our northwest, temperatures could potentially reach 
into the low 60s, while on the other hand if it tracks to our 
southeast we could be dealing with a major winter storm. If we end 
up on the warm side of the system, flooding could be a concern with 
high quantitative precipitation forecast amounts (eps and gefs ensemble means are both in excess of 
an inch) falling on whatever residual snowpack exists from this past 
weekend's storm. The last few model runs have been trending slightly 
warmer with the system, but it's far too early to make any kind of 
deterministic....blah blah


 

 

In other words, they're saying there's a chance!

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ha.  Good post.   You look at the precip panel and you would swear it's like 50 and just rain.

You would think right? But what's really odd is the icon never flips 10m winds to south. Check all the panels leading in and as it passes. Northerly flow the whole time. Best i can tell the model develops low pressure along the baroclinic zone off the coast and it deflects the ripping south winds into the atlantic. Our area never loses northerly surface flow during the entire event. 

icon_mslp_wind_neus_47.png

 

The red flag is i cant recall a single winter storm with this track that doesn't give us a dose of warm sector.

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