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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd sorry had to take son to the dr and so my post is delayed. I’ll get on it this evening.  Hopefully after we get done salivating over another epic weeklies. But the short short version is I think we likely see “some” snow over the next 2 weeks but our chances of a warning level event are maybe 40% imo. After that I love everything I see for a truly epic pattern going into February and with most of us already ahead of climo pace our chances of a very good winter (top 1/3) are extremely good. 

Ill give reasons and analysis when I don’t have a 4 year old pulling me around. :)

No prob, @psuhoffman , thanks ! 

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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

There actually pretty good agreement between the gfs/fv3 and the Euro for a rain to snow scenario for the weekend. I know they normally don't work out well for us but should be an interesting week of tracking.

Yes. This area has had this scenario before—where it’s quote on quite “mostly a rain event except a brief changeover” and we have overpetforned—the fact that the cold air slaps down fast—5-6 hours of heavy snow can pile up quickly with crashing temps. 

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Vast majority of hits on the gefs are from the trailing low. It's warming up to the idea pretty quick here. First thing that came to mind when the euro showed the trailing piece. Now the 18z gfs twins did it, and then there's this gefs panel... look at all those trailers... 

KfLBD6h.png

Lead wave is almost a lock to bring rain but the setup has become much more intriguing. Haven't seen a legit flash freeze in a long time. Glaciers are a lot of fun. My favorite memory of Feb 2007 was the glacier that stayed for what? Couple weeks?

 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lead wave is almost a lock to bring rain but the setup has become much more intriguing. Haven't seen a legit flash freeze in a long time. Glaciers are a lot of fun. My favorite memory of Feb 2007 was the glacier that stayed for what? Couple weeks?

 

March 2015 was a pretty fond memory for me. Not a glacier exactly but we went from 40s and rain to moderate/heavy snow coating everything almost instantly after changeover to single digits the night after. Fun event. 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

January 24-25 looks good on 18z GFS 

My goodness...Wonder if the "precipitation every weekend" trend is gonna continue? I've always wondered if it would keep going through winter...resulting in snowy weekends instead of rainy ones (but I haven't allowed myself to fantasize that far, lol). Would be something...but it certainly seems like that STJ is still gonna be a beast!

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42 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

53 degrees at 7 AM with rain and then 15 degrees at 1 PM with heavy ice/snow. Sounds unlikely lol

It does happen. But normally we need a secondary low to form on the boundary and ride north. This is looking more like a frontal passage than anything else. Although a very strong one so who knows.

Edit. And just like that the GEFS are showing a follow up wave.

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[mention=9853]poolz1[/mention]
This is very fascinating the relationships here and the connections.... > SSW > SPV split > forcing > high amplification  over North America = cold and stormy ...
 


It really looks like the damage is done and we will end up on the cold/snowy side of this SSW event. Just an impressive evolution to watch unfold over the past few weeks.

Just took a look at the weeklies individual days. 1 day out of the next 46 has heights neutral/normal....and that was at the end of feb. most day are highly impressive. We asked for this...lol No turning back now! I love it....
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15 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

March 2015 was a pretty fond memory for me. Not a glacier exactly but we went from 40s and rain to moderate/heavy snow coating everything almost instantly after changeover to single digits the night after. Fun event. 

Yea, that was a good event for so late in the year but it didn't have much staying power. Sun angle is real that late. If we get a legit glacier going right before the flip to stable cold then we could realistically have snow on the ground for a month.

02-03 was one of the best snowpack winters i've seen and even that came kinda late (pd2 through mid/late march). After PD2 we had multiple decent events into March to keep refreshing the pack.

Jan 87 was pretty amazing iirc too. Too long ago for clear memories but we even had snowpack on our street for weeks. 09-10 was sick from a big storm perspective but i've never seen 50" of snow melt so fast in Feb. Lol. Dec 09 went right down the storm drain a week later. 

Hypothetically, we could start a long lasting snowpack next weekend. You know what's better than snow on snow? Snow on snow on snow with a glacier base...

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I feel bad for PSU getting fringed so i'll try to cheer him up

AnUSX9p.png

Thanks!!!  

As long as I beat climo I can live with being fringed a few times. I don’t need to be the epicenter. But a miss would be easier to stomach after a hit or two...but I have faith it’s coming so I’m good.  But I guess I need to stop tempting the snow gods by joking about “fringed” every time.  I think they just reminded me whose boss!  

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Uh, I'm sorry... but alrighty then FV3... check this out:

fv3p_T2m_neus_fh138-144.thumb.gif.b679003393472033de7a06a6267b6cfc.gif

 

A 40 degree temp drop in 6 hours during the day would actually kind of impressive to watch unfold. Take the kids to the playground in the morning and then watch the front roll through. I’d think that would set off some kind of shower or storm activity lol

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