psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Weeklies holding the cold and snow pattern until March 1. Just cherry picked one panel but would suggest cold and maybe dry ETA: The rest of the weeklies can be found on 33andrain. The war there might actually help in that case. Anyways today’s eps already shifted more favorably for that period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cold chasing precip isn’t our best avenue to a win BUT this pattern is the one that is most common in. If there are multiple waves along the boundary the trailing wave would typically be southeast of the lead wave. We saw that work in a similar pattern a few times in 2014 and 2015. A long-time lurker here (and old timer)- thanks everyone !- growing up in VA I recall a number of times of rain to snow in the 60's and early 70's (hasn't happened all that much recently). Specifically, I recall a Nov 1968 12 inch rain to snow in Sperryville, VA and a February 1972 rain to snow event dropping significant snow (about 15 in) in the Warrenton to Washington, VA region- we had to stop at the "Esso" station in Gainesville and buy chains for our Ford while heading west from Arlington. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 My father-in-law stopped by and said we are getting 2 feet of snow this weekend. Social Media influences at its finest... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I’m hearing the weeklies held. [/url] Weeklies dont matter anymore...we are now in eps range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Weeklies dont matter anymore...we are now in eps range This is one of your better posts. If the ao/nao set up i can tell you that they will likely stay for at least a month without looking at any further guidance 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Week 5 is basically ridiculous on the weeklies. We only need it to be half right to score. The real fun starts when blocking gets so strong that SC scores huge while we have endless sunny days below freezing. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Weeklies dont matter anymore...we are now in eps range Agreed but people will still look and they are still good for fantasy. Just like we look at the day 10-15 gfs even though that is equally irrelevant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Week 5 is basically ridiculous on the weeklies. We only need it to be half right to score. The real fun starts when blocking gets so strong that SC scores huge while we have endless sunny days below freezing. As long as we have a foot on the ground who cares. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: As long as we have a foot on the ground who cares. First name J last name Hatem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Congrats Panama City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs ends well. I guess if you can’t get it on the front you take it in the back. I didn't realize you switched jobs from a teacher to a porn star. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This is one of your better posts. If the ao/nao set up i can tell you that they will likely stay for at least a month without looking at any further guidanceI can make good posts when I want too....but somehow I got a role here and it would be weird to divert from it lol. In the early days of the forums...I was considered funny....then I won the weenie of the year and it changed me lol I guess you only win weenie of the year when your too optimistic and think a 982 in Iowa will give you snow Haha 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 January 24-25 looks good on 18z GFS Then more hardcore arctic air and highs in the teens and lows below zero out in lala land after the storm on the 25th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: January 24-25 looks good on 18z GFS Then more arctic air and highs in the teens and lows below zero out in lala land Straight out of the gulf of Mexico. Would be an epic storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 What a weenie run of the GFS. Not only active but active with really big storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Congrats Panama City Didn’t know there is a Panama City in MD 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Congrats Panama City Yup. Pack it up boys. We had a good run. Was fun. See you all in November. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Straight out of the gulf of Mexico. Would be an epic storm. Lows after the storm are in the teens below zero along i81 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Lows after the storm are in the teens below zero along i81 lol No thanks lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I think I realized how much more fun it was to track a storm than a pattern. Chasing patterns is so mentally tiring and lengthy 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Looking at the GEFS, and the weeklies and the CFS.................. I am too old, I don't think my heart can take it . Courtesy 33andrain Wicked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18z FV3 is acceptable... looks a bit better than the GFS for late Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The agreement on the GEFS for a major storm at day 10+ is crazy. Going to be a fun 6 weeks of tracking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Uh, I'm sorry... but alrighty then FV3... check this out: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Didn’t know there is a Panama City in MD I don't think areas to the north of us like that look too much honestly. Especially north of NYC. Us and the SE will prob get clobbered if it's right. Seeing an uber long range mean look like that means there are plenty of extreme blocking solutions in the mix 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I don't think areas to the north of us like that look too much honestly. Especially north of NYC. Us and the SE will prob get clobbered if it's right. Seeing an uber long range mean look like that means there are plenty of extreme blocking solutions in the mix Plenty of potential last minute north trends in the mix for the next 6 weeks. #glasshalffull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I don't think areas to the north of us like that look too much honestly. Especially north of NYC. Us and the SE will prob get clobbered if it's right. Seeing an uber long range mean look like that means there are plenty of extreme blocking solutions in the mix Lot's of Miller Brrrrrs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: What is the CFS? This .....referring to the CFS weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I don't think areas to the north of us like that look too much honestly. Especially north of NYC. Us and the SE will prob get clobbered if it's right. Seeing an uber long range mean look like that means there are plenty of extreme blocking solutions in the mixI think the only redeeming thing of being in dc is that we we are often bullseyed in moderate ninos...2003,2010...2016...we were dead bullseye. And yesterday. New Englanders like la ninas which is why we hate them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Uh, I'm sorry... but alrighty then FV3... check this out: There actually pretty good agreement between the gfs/fv3 and the Euro for a rain to snow scenario for the weekend. I know they normally don't work out well for us but should be an interesting week of tracking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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