psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Can we stop talking about Ji now? GFS is trying to develop a trailing wave at 144 I was talking about Jay. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS w the back end thump as temps crash. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Not an insignificant event, GFS drops 4-6 in DC according to stormvista maps. I know typically these don’t work out for us but hey, it may be our only option with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: November doesn’t count now? I didn't realize it was significant enough for a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gfs ends well. I guess if you can’t get it on the front you take it in the back. 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I didn't realize it was significant enough for a warning. I’m pretty sure he had 5”. I had 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs ends well. I guess if you can’t get it on the front you take it in the back. Oh no...here we go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Not an insignificant event, GFS drops 4-6 in DC according to stormvista maps. I know typically these don’t work out for us but hey, it may be our only option with this storm. I think this scenario is plausible though. The first low is mix/ rain and drags the front across the area. With a secondary low forming south of us on the tail end of the front. It takes perfect timing though so who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m pretty sure he had 5”. I had 7. Wow I didn't realize. Man I love winter, even when it's a little out of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Not an insignificant event, GFS drops 4-6 in DC according to stormvista maps. I know typically these don’t work out for us but hey, it may be our only option with this storm. Cold chasing precip isn’t our best avenue to a win BUT this pattern is the one that is most common in. If there are multiple waves along the boundary the trailing wave would typically be southeast of the lead wave. We saw that work in a similar pattern a few times in 2014 and 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs ends well. I guess if you can’t get it on the front you take it in the back. I...you...I can....this is... nevermind 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Cold chasing precip isn’t our best avenue to a win BUT this pattern is the one that is most common in. If there are multiple waves along the boundary the trailing wave would typically be southeast of the lead wave. We saw that work in a similar pattern a few times in 2014 and 2015. It's not going to happen. It almost NEVER happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs ends well. I guess if you can’t get it on the front you take it in the back. Moderator!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Both the GEFS and the EPS have another signal after the 20th for week 2. The GEFS seems like a low coming out of the south trying to catch up to a 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Cold chasing precip isn’t our best avenue to a win BUT this pattern is the one that is most common in. If there are multiple waves along the boundary the trailing wave would typically be southeast of the lead wave. We saw that work in a similar pattern a few times in 2014 and 2015. Did that happen during Commutagedon too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs ends well. I guess if you can’t get it on the front you take it in the back. 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m pretty sure he had 5”. I had 7. I typically come here to lurk for the excellent wx analysis...but of course, I always enjoy the Freudian slips, too. EDIT: 'd by @stormtracker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's not going to happen. It almost NEVER happens here. Let a man dream at least....30 degree temp drop then 5 inches of powder, then single digit lows...that would be TASTY. Euro was trying something similar at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: I think this scenario is plausible though. The first low is mix/ rain and drags the front across the area. With a secondary low forming south of us on the tail end of the front. It takes perfect timing though so who knows. We don’t do perfect timing. But we are off to a pretty good start so who knows for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I think this scenario is plausible though. The first low is mix/ rain and drags the front across the area. With a secondary low forming south of us on the tail end of the front. It takes perfect timing though so who knows. There are other examples historically before 2014 when that worked in an epo war pattern. It almost worked in 94 but on one the trailing wave was suppressed and the other the mid levels had a warm layer and we got an epic sleet storm after a freezing rain to rain event from wave 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Moderator!!!!! What? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cold chasing precip isn’t our best avenue to a win BUT this pattern is the one that is most common in. If there are multiple waves along the boundary the trailing wave would typically be southeast of the lead wave. We saw that work in a similar pattern a few times in 2014 and 2015. the "cold chasing" portion is basically an anafront, right? Had some nice jet entrance zone interaction during the March 5, 2015 event too. Sadly not seeing much of that in this one but i guess something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 50 minutes ago, frd said: What, seriously ? Starting when ? That is almost a month ! What is the CFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs ends well. I guess if you can’t get it on the front you take it in the back. Oh my... Paging @ravensrule, cleanup on aisle 5 of the medium range thread! Anyhow more on topic. I certainly agree that these trailing wave or precip chasing cold scenarios are not common here and do not work out very often. Best recent example I can think of is March 2015. But the possibility here is intriguing for sure, even if not high probability at this point. This idea has shown up from time to time in the past few days for this event. I think it would actually be kinda cool if it worked out. With the understanding that it's a bit of a long shot right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 @frd sorry had to take son to the dr and so my post is delayed. I’ll get on it this evening. Hopefully after we get done salivating over another epic weeklies. But the short short version is I think we likely see “some” snow over the next 2 weeks but our chances of a warning level event are maybe 40% imo. After that I love everything I see for a truly epic pattern going into February and with most of us already ahead of climo pace our chances of a very good winter (top 1/3) are extremely good. Ill give reasons and analysis when I don’t have a 4 year old pulling me around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Did that happen during Commutagedon too? Not sure of that. That storm was more driven by an intense upper low that went through, it was very convective as I recall. But it did involve cooling and rain to ice to heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I’m hearing the weeklies held. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Oh my... Paging @ravensrule, cleanup on aisle 5 of the medium range thread! Anyhow more on topic. I certainly agree that these trailing wave or precip chasing cold scenarios are not common here and do not work out very often. Best recent example I can think of is March 2015. But the possibility here is intriguing for sure, even if not high probability at this point. This idea has shown up from time to time in the past few days for this event. I think it would actually be kinda cool if it worked out. With the understanding that it's a bit of a long shot right now. The early March storm in 2014 could also fall into this type. Going way back I can recall a system in jan. 1991 that had a trailing wave work out. Also in March 1996 and jan. 1988 were a couple other examples. I'm sure I could dig up a few more examples but I'm too lazy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Weeklies holding the cold and snow pattern until March 1. Just cherry picked one panel but would suggest cold and maybe dry ETA: The rest of the weeklies can be found on 33andrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: The early March storm in 2014 could also fall into this type. Going way back I can recall a system in jan. 1991 that had a trailing wave work out. Also in March 1996 and jan. 1988 were a couple other examples. I'm sure I could dig up a few more examples but I'm too lazy lol. Those 91 and 88 storms are in the analogs right now. Good catch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Weeklies holding the cold and snow pattern until March 1. Just cherry picked one panel but would suggest cold and maybe dry ETA: The rest of the weeklies can be found on 33andrain. I hope not...but then again, the atmosphere ain't static, so in the periods where any dry cold dome relaxes...and with the STJ still being so active...perhaps cold and dry won't be as much of a problem as last year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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