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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Icon trended better @ h5 but it's a skating rink solution so I'm not sure everyone will call that "better". 

ETA: from a mby perspective. PSU is nude right now. 

I remember in 94 when I lived in Herndon VA we drive up to Harrisburg one weekend. My dad has a meeting there and took us along. It was March I think. And I was shocked once we got north of Frederick how there was still a glacier on the ground. Like a foot of hard packed snow. And huge piles everywhere. It was obvious they had a much different winter. 

But no two years are exactly alike. It’s true a -epo war pattern favors north. Storms tend to run the boundary and the boundary moves around but the further north the better chance that more of the storms stay south of you. 2014 might have been the south end of what can happen in that pattern. But 1994 isn’t necessarily the most likely outcome either. 2015 is kind of an in between scenario. No way to know how it plays out until it does. 

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24 minutes ago, frd said:

My cold medication got the best of me this morning, I did post the NAO in error. However, I appreciate all the great feedback on the topic of the AO and the NAO.

I believe there was a recent post by my Mike Ventrice where he talks about the -NAO taking longer to evolve in this type of SSWE. He presented some good info on the topic showing comparisons on this year's SSWE to last years in Feb. anfd the subsequent NAO that developed .  

Agree with that analogy to last Feb. Difference is  this year the base state is much less hostile as we transition the next 2 weeks so we could catch a break. Last year the pattern did start to flux in mid Feb and we caught that low end event from the frontal wave but in general we were stuck in a Nina torch so we had to wait for the NAO to tank to have a shot. This year we have already scored during the flawed but ok transition pattern and could again. I decided to wait until after the early 12z guidance comes in to make my full pattern post during the dead time later. Don’t want to distract from the guidance analysis.  But I’m 50/50 on our chances to score a big hit (we likely see some snow given the plethora of chances) during the next 2 weeks and very optimistic after. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I had a lot of hope for this weekend storm.  But I think Robert Chill is right...this one screams more wet than white.

It's hard to deny the ridge in the midrange. There are ways for it to work but if we are being intellectually honest about everything... this is the most favored track by far. If we score we got lucky again. 

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

GFS during the height of the storm is like 33-37 across our area.  Not far away from being cold enough.  Close enough to keep me interested. 

No one should be punting this before midweek at the earliest.  Trend this year has still been to move the storm track to our south.  

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I decided to wait until after the early 12z guidance comes in to make my full pattern post during the dead time later. Don’t want to distract from the guidance analysis.

I am going to save my Jelly donut for your post psu.  Have a little coffee with it. Awaiting with eager anticipation. Hey, I hope this does not put undue stress on you to make an epic update, ha ha J/K . Looking forward to it. 

I will post some voodoo strat stuff if there is anything worthwhile to bring up later.  

On a side note my son was happy with his 2 hour delay this AM. , meant he had more time to game last night and watch bit coin price swings. Teenagers these days ...... ( my daughters were more sensible ) 

 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

I used a chisel and hammer to remove ice from around the tires and a rubber mallet to bash the super thick ice off my hood and trunk so I could get the heck out :lmao:. It was simply incredibly hard and ice didn't melt for 6 weeks. 

We were skiing down the hill in in our yard with boots on. You literally could not break through the sleet glacier with your feet. It was the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen. I remember my poor dog. he was crawling around on his belly on it. He didnt know what the hell was going on. :)

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1 minute ago, Woodbridge02 said:

is this counting sleet/freezing rain as snow?

GEFS members don't have good resolution. It goes beyond sleet/zr as snow. A west track that would not be snow in real life will magically show a big hit sometimes. When dealing with a borderline/marginal temp event, be careful looking at the GEFS ind member output. It's skewed towards colder and snowier every.single.time. 

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I basically never trust the navgem...ever... but it's usually the most progressive model so..

Yep, it has been trending further and further West.

Was way out East over the Ocean last night and now I see even further West, inland. 

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GEFS is a shotgun of solutions. A few pure rainers. Mostly mixed events. Some front end like the op. Others cut then develop a trailing wave that flips to snow. And a few pure snow solutions. A lot of ice in there. But if were being optimistic it was an improvement over 6z even considering a lot of that “snow” is actually ice. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill I wish I could see the h5 composites to compete the tpv locations and war but I do remember the AO and NAO were pretty positive in 94. So with a neutral NAO and negative AO perhaps that argues for a slightly better outcome.  

Agree. I saw some h5 plots for an early Jan storm in 94 and it was remarkably close to what is being shown this weekend. I don't think 94 is a good analog as a seasonal just for this weekend's specific threat. We're probably going to have to wait until the thurs/fri shortwave is nailed down before we can have confidence in the weekend. I'm only favoring more wet than white or ice because of the ridging. It's a good general rule of thumb...with a lot of exceptions. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GEFS is a shotgun of solutions. A few pure rainers. Mostly mixed events. Some front end like the op. Others cut then develop a trailing wave that flips to snow. And a few pure snow solutions. A lot of ice in there. But if were being optimistic it was an improvement over 6z even considering a lot of that “snow” is actually ice. 

All over the place of course!  Given what's been discussed lately and from what we've seen in the latest model runs, I'd tend to think the pure snow solutions are low probability.  I do find the idea of a trailing wave flipping to snow kind of interesting.  Not saying it's high probability either or anything like that, but a couple of ops runs in the past few days showed that scenario with the cold air pushing in very quickly.

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