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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va
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1 minute ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

There is a 6z EPS.  They go out to 144.  I have stormvista and they are there and very warm/west.

 weathermodels doesn't have 06z EPS, nor have I ever seen anyone post it before. 

can you share?

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

The pattern is more favorable for a Chicago snowstorm than it is an I95 snowstorm.  So I think models will eventually trend mostly rain for us with the snow jackpot in the Great Lakes and NNE. 

 

Plus the MJO is quickly going into the unfavorable phases. 

GFS MJO index ensemble plume

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Still too early to tell outcomes. I know the Northern part of this subforum is looking for more snow after this weekend. 

Also , see the potential for extreme cold is  lessened after the 1/20 storm.  Maybe extreme cold is pushed back to early Feb.  

Seeing talk about the MJO and again the Pac jet messing things up.  It breaks down West Coast ridging. I believe the MJO should progress into better phases after this. Maybe this time period is what HM is talking about with the Midwest Blizzard. 

As Isotherm stated  a few days ago in his update for the New York crew,  there are issues still with the Pac/MJO , interference, etc., and it is evident coming up.  Hopefully we get past these to the better looks the weeklies/ GEFS have shown Feb.   

I am very optimistic about late month and all of Feb and even March. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

I don’t control the weather :)

The weather has been fine. Most of this forum will be ahead of climo even if we don’t get another inch of snow in January, which is very unlikely given the train of storms coming.  You are correct the system next weekend favors rain att over snow but it’s not locked, there are ways it could work. And if not so what it’s one storm. We will have plenty of more chances. And finally the problem with you is you are like the long range version of snjokoma where all you do it point out what looks bad and then repeat it over and over and over. And your not even in your home forum.  You aren’t here in good faith. Most are here because they enjoy the weather and like to track and get something positive out of this experience. You are here to annoy people and it’s pathetic. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The weather has been fine. Most of this forum will be ahead of climo even if we don’t get another inch of snow in January, which is very unlikely given the train of storms coming.  You are correct the system next weekend favors rain att over snow but it’s not locked, there are ways it could work. And if not so what it’s one storm. We will have plenty of more chances. And finally the problem with you is you are like the long range version of snjokoma where all you do it point out what looks bad and then repeat it over and over and over. And your not even in your home forum.  You aren’t here in good faith. Most are here because they enjoy the weather and like to track and get something positive out of this experience. You are here to annoy people and it’s pathetic. 

Sorry you feel that way.  Glad you got snow this weekend.

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4 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

MJO is easily the weenie term of the season thus far

Mjo is just a fancy way of saying where the tropical convection is in the western PAC and Indian Ocean. That is important. Same reason the enso is. Most of the heat being added to the atmospheric equation is from the tropics and so where that is drives the bus on the mid latitude long wave pattern.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The weather has been fine. Most of this forum will be ahead of climo even if we don’t get another inch of snow in January, which is very unlikely given the train of storms coming.  You are correct the system next weekend favors rain att over snow but it’s not locked, there are ways it could work. And if not so what it’s one storm. We will have plenty of more chances. And finally the problem with you is you are like the long range version of snjokoma where all you do it point out what looks bad and then repeat it over and over and over. And your not even in your home forum.  You aren’t here in good faith. Most are here because they enjoy the weather and like to track and get something positive out of this experience. You are here to annoy people and it’s pathetic. 

Thanks for this, and I agree.  I think there's some (understandable) disappointment over how things have recently trended or whatever for the upcoming weekend system, but there's a lot to work out on that yet to "despair" too much.  Beyond that time, yes, it looks active for sure.  That all said, I do have to say it's kind of a bit unnerving to see the MJO forecast go back into phase 5/6.  Previously I think it was just rotating into the COD.  But at any rate, maybe that doesn't matter as much...honestly, I'm not all that up on when the MJO is really a "big" factor vs. not.  Some years, that's all you hear about, others, I never even see a plot and it's never mentioned.

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9 minutes ago, frd said:

This to me this is more interesting than the MJO. 

What happened to the many ensemble members agreeing on a steep decline in the AO ?  Today that is gone.  

This is beyond me,  maybe someone can comment why this changed. 

@psuhoffman I see your are around, any ideas ?

 

I was looking at the EPS this morning and the AO looks negative to me through day 15. Not something I would worry over. 

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The MJO and AO changes are very concerning and disappointing, but we've seen things flip quickly so who knows. I was really excited about the weekend storm but it certainly now looks like either a slushy mess or straight rain, but maybe the system evolves. This last one didn't look so hot and then look how it turned out for a good portion of the forum.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I was looking at the EPS this morning and the AO looks negative to me through day 15. Not something I would worry over. 

Not sure, but maybe frd mixed up the NAO plot with an AO one (the one he shows is for NAO).  I don't honestly know how either one has been trending over the past few days.

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2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Not sure, but maybe frd mixed up the NAO plot with an AO one (the one he shows is for NAO).  I don't honestly know how either one has been trending over the past few days.

If he meant the NAO, it looks ok too and is notoriously hard to predict at long leads anyway. I have felt all along the best period for legit NA blocking would be Feb. Weeklies have been consistent with that idea lately.

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Ensembles for the next 15 days were a bit of a disappointment for my purposes. I would love to see at least some kind of snowfall while I was back home. GEFS was better in that regard than the EPS which was just horrid to look at this morning for snow chances through the 26th. Long range into late January and February still look great, but a kick in the gut for my sake. 

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9 minutes ago, frd said:

Cool, just wondering more so where the dive to -4 SD went.  So many moving pieces. 

-4 is not necessary to get it done if other indices line up well.  Same as MJO into unfavorable phases, but closer to the COD mutes the affects (to a degree).  

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Ensembles for the next 15 days were a bit of a disappointment for my purposes. I would love to see at least some kind of snowfall while I was back home. GEFS was better in that regard than the EPS which was just horrid to look at this morning for snow chances through the 26th. Long range into late January and February still look great, but a kick in the gut for my sake. 

I'm sure the change is mjo related but the mjo isn't a 1:1 correlation and we're in the best period of the year for things not to be perfect... That said, the WAR is looking a little stubborn now. Recency bias says the -epo/WAR combo produced big but that's not really how it works over longer timescales. Jan 94 is the best analog i can think of for the next 10 days at least. Not a perfect match but storm tracks sure remind me of that year. 

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this last storm is proof that things can change pretty quickly.  one thing that's pretty clear for this area (at least from my view) is that we have a better chance at precip overperforming than cold.  this last storm looked squashy, but we found a way because we've got the gulf and atlantic on our side.  "snow" cold is just not as easy.  for the weekend situation, that high placement looks good in the midwest, but we may need it to be further east.  this last storm we had a stout high tracking over top in unison with the southern stream.

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