clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, nj2va said: ICON on TT only shows rain or snow...no gradients for sleet or freezing rain. That is a serious front end thump out this way followed by a catastrophic ice storm IMO. Please let it be wrong. I will take the snow but not the ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Trying to figure out at 147 if there us a transfer going on on the IWM maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That is a serious front end thump out this way followed by a catastrophic ice storm IMO. Please let it be wrong. I will take the snow but not the ice. Yeah, pretty epic ice storm set up out that way on the ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 2 mid range trends we've seen recently are further south and colder than d5+. This one might be a big storm so models will do better with general progression from longer range. If the euro goes warmer tonight it would be a bad sign. I almost expecting it. The WAR is a crappy feature for snow here. Yes, turned out really good. Argued for a much bigger storm and it was right. We just need psu to tell us what cips says and we can stop looking at models I’ve always liked them not as a end all but if guidance diverges much they often hint which way guidance will trend or bust. I’m too dispondent from my epic fringing and Eagles loss to read them now. I’ll see if I can bring myself to look tomorrow. ...they aren’t in range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gfs isn’t gonna be all rain that’s for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS looks even better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The GFS is an absolute crush job DC and west for the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Lol- gfs is as close as you can get to a mostly wet track but still get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 156 1000mb SLP just N of ORF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 159 998mb just east of Ocean City and 50 to 100 miles SE of ACY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 162 998mb E of ACY around 100 miles or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Yoda is still in short range tracking mode 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- gfs is as close as you can get to a mostly wet track but still get snow ive never seen a model jump so much in the mid range. Compare 12z today with 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- gfs is as close as you can get to a mostly wet track but still get snow I95 seems to do pretty bad with snow this run though... need another 100 mile shift east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Ji said: ive never seen a model jump so much in the mid range. Compare 12z today with 00z I expect big jumps with the euro too. Amplified progressive flow with a WAR is hard as hell to get tracks right. Especially when 1-200 miles one way or the other is the difference between a huge hit and all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Wow, pretty sweet run verbatim. And it’s less than 150 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, yoda said: I95 seems to do pretty bad with snow this run though... need another 100 mile shift east please give us the bad news on the CMC---seems your good at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Ji said: please give us the bad news on the CMC---seems your good at that Don’t even look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I expect big jumps with the euro too. Amplified progressive flow with a WAR is hard as hell to get tracks right. Especially when 1-200 miles one way or the other is the difference between a huge hit and all rain. euro has been fairly consistent with the storm being south of us. It hasnt had a cutter yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: euro has been fairly consistent with the storm being south of us. It hasnt had a cutter yet Fv3 is a disaster. All rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: ive never seen a model jump so much in the mid range. Compare 12z today with 00z Dude this is normal...And in a setup like this one, I'd imagine you'd see more jumping around! And this is still somewhat long range, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Fv3 is a disaster. All rain i dont think ive ever seen Fv3 and GFS be on the same page. When FV3 showed huge snow, gfs was cuttern. Now GFS shows snow and Fv3 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 is a disaster. All rain not as bad as you make it out to be. Still seems to track south of us. 3 miles south but still south:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ji said: please give us the bad news on the CMC---seems your good at that I'm glad somebody else noticed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 UKIE says no snow for anyone on the East coast... running up west of the Apps 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 00z GEFS snowfall mean at 144 is around 2.5 inches at DCA At 162 hours, the 00z GEFS snowfall mean is 5.5 inches at DCA... the 6 inch line is at the BR and west DCA passes 6 inches at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I expect big jumps with the euro too. Amplified progressive flow with a WAR is hard as hell to get tracks right. Especially when 1-200 miles one way or the other is the difference between a huge hit and all rain. For us newbies, what is WAR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, cbmclean said: For us newbies, what is WAR? Western Atlantic Ridge. Sometimes this hurts us, other times it helps depending on a number of other factors in any overall specific setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 23 minutes ago, cbmclean said: For us newbies, what is WAR? West Atlantic Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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